Political dynamics that may influence outcome of next GE
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I am glad to read from many socio-political blogs that the forthcoming election will be fiercely contested by opposition political parties.
One sure certainty is that there will be lesser walk-overs as compared to previous elections whereby the ruling party is handed over power almost on a platter when opposition parties could not find enough candidates to field for election.
I have also read that Kenneth Jeyeretnam of Reform Party is fielding candidates to contest in at least three GRCs, This can only be good news for Singaporean voters – many of whom never have the chance to vote at all.
More importantly, Kenneth has being a breath of fresh air for the opposition politics, which unfortunately is known more for its ineptitude and inefficiency. He has single-handedly brought hope and optimism to opposition politics in Singapore. Only time will tell if he can be mentioned in the same calibre as his father - the late J B Jeyeretnam.
One gets the feeling that this election will be a watershed one – both for the ruling party and Singapore as a whole. Some have even boldly predicted that our country will never be the same again after this election. Even though the opposition may not be able to topple the ruling party from power, it will definitely make much headway in our local politics and act as a strong alternative.
I have voted in three other elections consecutively but have never felt the ground shifted so much.
The mixed emotions felt by the NTU student during the recent SM Goh Chok Tong’s public forum must have jolted the ruling party out of its’ senses as the population struggled to come to terms with a heavy foreign presence unseen before since independence in 1965.
More significantly, many citizens questioned the need to defend a country that is populated by temporary foreign residents who come in and make their quick exit after accumulating sufficient benefits during their short stay here.
Foreigners the main push factor for alternative votes
Very clearly, the main push factor for majority of citizens to vote otherwise is the extreme discomfort associated with the huge influx of foreigners allowed into our country.
Our Prime Minister’s regular rhetoria that ushering in foreigners with open arms will help bring jobs to our country remains largely unprovened.
In fact, foreign professionals have competed fiercely for jobs with our local citizens in all sectors and they have consequently helped pushed up housing prices. Our locals face re-employment pressure in all possible hiring positions – senior management, middle management, lower middle management, junior executive among others.
Many displaced executives – retrenched two years ago during the financial crisis – are now more ready to cast their votes against the ruling party as they have seen how their livelihood has been severely threatened by the government’s open-door globalisation policy. There are not enough solid evidences to prove that by welcoming in more foreigners, the local population will ultimately benefit.
On the contrary, we see how many highly educated experienced PMETs struggle to find jobs and often if they found one, its a junior position that carried lesser pay compared to their previous jobs.
Such swing votes coming from a displaced population could help the opposition candidates capture at least one GRC as the best opposition performance in Aljunied GRC during the previous election, showed a loss of only 6%.
Workers’ Party’s Chairman Ms Sylvia Lim has also excelled in her non-constituency Member of Parliament (NCMP) role and many voters may decide to give her a chance to be legitimately elected as their Member of Parliament (MP).
Many of these swing voters may also be loyal PAP supporters as their basic needs were met all along and the future seems bright. It will be silly to vote against the ruling party who has helped them achieve so much in life even though they have weak human rights record and freedom of speech is mostly curtailed..
Now, they felt betrayed by a government who has brought in so many foreigners and denying them the basic right to make a living for their families.
Some also suffered from the ill-effects of prolonged unemployment resulting in bankruptcy, forced home re-possession by banks and family’s breakup.
In fact, many Singaporeans see no real future for themselves especially if they have reach the crucial middle-aged segment of their life whereby jobs are scant once they are being retrenched.
Contractual work arrangements have also rendered long-term work stability a foregone conclusion among our ageing executives. High business cost and a lack of entrepreneurial aptitude have prevented many jobless executives from venturing out of their working-life comfort zone.
Voters are smart people and they will want take a chance on an alternative if given the choice. Singaporeans are are considered very pragmatic voters and their loyalty will shift if their standard of living and livelihood have being compromised.
I have listed three new political dynamics in play and they may significantly influence the outcome of this coming general election:-
1. Popularity of socio-political websites
We have seen the recent phenomenal rise in popularity of socio-political websites and this has mainly benefited the opposition parties. Many netizens have switched to viewing articles posted on such sites as they refuse to believe anymore on the reportings of our state-controlled newspapers.
For example, Mr Gerald Giam, a candidate for Workers’ Party, has used his blog -geraldgiam.sg to showcase his political views to his supporters on a regular basis. He enjoys a total readership of a few thousand readers daily.
Without the facility of a blog, Mr Giam is unlikely to enjoy such prominence as the state presses will not give him much space in their columns.
The state-controlled press – long suspected to be the propanganda mouthpiece of the ruling party, suddenly faces strong competition from our alternative online media – all run by volunteers without any proper funding.
Articles posted on socio-political websites are known to be more balanced and transparent but they are generally critical of the government policies.
That is probably the reason why New Temasek Review is in the news lately and they have to change their website name from Temasek Review to New Temasek Review as a result of a website name infringement charge laid by Temasek Holdings.
The huge popularity enjoyed by social-political websites is unprecendented and the government has not been successful in tapping on this new channel of communication.
They can control the presses but its another matter to monitor and curtail information put up by bloggers using overseas IPs and web hosts. The government can threaten and even haul them to the police stations for interrogation but they can’t control all of them without suffering a backlash on our already-rotten freedom of speech record.
In fact, the government has to close down their own PAP Youth website as it is populated by anti- government comments – definitely a big slap to their face.
The two most popular socio-political websites: The Online Citizen and New Temasek Review have enjoyed daily readership figures in the tens of thousands and they could hugely influence how people will vote in the next election as most of their articles are pro-alternative.
Though the state has always believed to have control the press, not many can deny that socio-political blogs belong to the voice of the common people.
More importantly, they have become a focal point for voices of dissent to gather together and in unity people find strength and courage to speak out even though its all hidden behind a moniker.
Most socio political blogs also provide sufficient air time for opposition figures to showcase their views and abilities – a luxury which has all along been denied by our state-controlled presses.
A lack of open channel to voice out their frustration has invariably helped political blogs to flourish as netizens gather online as a show of strength, Many also use this communication channel to vent out their frustrations by posting anti-government comments.
The fact that our socio-political blogs have enjoy such immense popularity shows that there is a large group of people out there who is feeling displaced and frustrated and have nowhere or no one to turn to for redress.
2. Resurgence of opposition politics
There is also a huge unprecedented interest in opposition politics. Young people have joined opposition parties in droves and many are ready to even stand for election.
Many are capable well-educated citizens who want to do more than just cast a vote.
They are probably in their early 20s to late 30s , university-educated and more significantly have not seen the intimidation tactics of the current regime – used by the ruling party to deter people from joining opposition politics with good effect.
People in their early 40s to late 50s have seen how the ruling party chastised voices of dissent so much so that they are very cautious to have any association with any opposition voices.
Those who dare and want to join a opposition party in the past has to back away as their family members pleaded with them, some on bended knees, not to do so for the sake of their family members and careers.
Their fear is understandable as opposition candidates hardly win in an election and they have to face the adverse consequences of their decision which may affect their livelihood. For the sake of the family, many potential candidates have turn away to be opposition candidates.
However, many young people have seen the pathetic state of our opposition politics and wanted to do something active on their own to spark a political reformation.
Many young people have thrown caution to the wind as they could not take the stifling political environment anymore.
Some of these candidates have just returned from abroad and after been influenced by democracy-driven values overseas are more ready to push for political changes in our country.
In the past, opposition party candidates were known to have been sued after election and some have fled abroad to escape lawsuits filed against them by the ruling party.
It is however heartening to know that lawsuits were not filed against anyone standing as a candidate against the ruling party during the last election and it is hope that this will be the norm in the future.
The resurgence of opposition politics can only spell hope for those who yearn for political reform in our country – thanks mainly to our young citizens who have walk the talk and want to do something to spark changes for our country.
3. Bad News All The Way
Since the last election in 2006, bad news have followed the city state like a plague. From regular floods hitting the island state to the infamous terrorist escape of Mas Selmat, Singaporeans have never seen so many unnatural events happened within a short period in their life time.
It is as if such calamities were waiting to be unfolded and they have been hiding all along somewhere waiting for the right time to explode.
We were given an early warning of things to come when the financial crisis hit us badly in 2007/8 - jn fact we have yet to fully recover from the downturn even though our GDP has reached skyrocketing proportions.
Many of the retrenched were high-level executives unlike the previous recession in 2000/1 period when many rank-and-file workers were laid off.
The same maligned manufacturing sector continued to revamp and to reduce cost, many manufacturers have moved to cheaper locations in China, Vietnam, Indonesia and Philippines.
Many retrenched executives still remained jobless till today as the whole industry has completely transformed and many found difficulty transitioning to a new career despite all kinds of upgrading programmes in place.
Their obsolete skillsets, high expectations and matured age were challenges that could not be resolved easily. The influx of foreigners have worsened their plight.
More negative news followed when Temasek Holdings, our state-controlled sovereignty investment giant, revealed that their losses ran into the tens of billions.
There were also critical reports from foreign presses stating that our investment strategies were flawed and we bought into toxic banking stocks when many fund houses were selling.
For example, we bought a stake in the Australian childcare’s ABC Learning Centre for close to $1 billion dollars only to find the childcare giant collapsed few months later. Much of the investment has gone down the drain.
Singaporeans were shell-shocked as all along they have trusted the government to be prudent on investing the country’s reserves. There were cries for more transparency in Parliament but the government remained tight-lipped on their investment portfolio and strategy further frustrating the general population.
Things got worse for the government when terrorist Mas Selamat managed to escape from a light-security detention centre three years ago. The irony of it all was the fact that Mas Selamat – a limping unfit prisoner, has managed to remain uncaptured for many months despite an island-wide manhunt search before the Malaysian authorities nabbed him in nearby Johore.
The way the government explained away its incompetence and subsequently laid the blame on junior subordinates, resulting in their dismissal, have angered many netizens.
Many are also dissatisfied with how ministers could escape scoff free and refused to take full responsibility for blunders committed in governance.
More seriously, many now feel that such monopolistic style of governance is the result of a one-party dominated Parliament and this may be a big push factor for many to vote for more opposition voices during the next election.
Even the sky did not spare the island state from when flash floods regularly threatened the country’s first-world image. The floods were an embarrassment to our country’s famed superb insfrastructure and top-notch business efficiency image.
Many netizens took it as a sign from the heavens to chastise our country for opening the door to vices generated from our two integrated resorts.
News of prostitution, money laundering, cheating, corruption, gambling addiction took centre stage as our country comes to terms with two mega-size casinos at its doorsteps.
The growth-at-all-cost slogan of the government does not go down well with many people as the social costs were just too great.
The introduction of the two mega resorts have not really translate into direct job opportunites for the general population – as promised by the Prime Minister. Many citizens felt cheated by a leader who is only concerned with growing the country’s wealth without really showing concern on how to spread the benefits to the general population.
In fact, many of the jobs generated are service-related and employers prefer to hire foreigners for their low cost and service-orientaed nature.
Many people now suspect that the government has now lost its plot to re-chart the ship that is sailing aimlessly in unchartered waters for the past few years.
Having tried their hand at pharmaucetical, bio-technology, wafer manufacturing and other high-tech industries, the government could not really steady the ship and provide clear direction on the right way to sail.
Though GDP figures are on the rise and unemployment has dipped, the journey remains turbulent and uncertain for many.
In fact, there is already talk of a technical recession for the latter part of this year as the US and Europe unemployment rate remains high – around 7.5%.
The recent demise of Mrs Lee Kuan Yew has also given rise to speculation that strongman MM Lee Kuan Yew may not contest the next election as he is still grieving and lost the combative willpower.
Losing MM Lee for the next election is like not having Pele on the Brazilian football team. His mere presence in political rallies have won votes especially from those in the age group of 50s – 70s. His huge influence on any election is undeniable and his absence now will likely help swing some votes to the opposition.
The recent high-profiled court case against the British author Mr Alan Shadrake has also not endeared the government to a young population who is concerned about the poor freedom of speech and human rights record here.
Singapore has just gone through a turbulent five-year period and many people, who are affected in one way or another by either the influx of foreigners or the recent financial crisis, will have no hesitation to shift their support to the opposition this time round.
Conclusion
The ground has certainly shifted against the ruling party during this turbulent period and many citizens can sense that change may soon arrive.
It is almost certain that the ruling party will suffer a drop in majority votes even though they have a large contingent of civil servants and newly-converted foreign-breed citizens rooting for them.
They could account for at least 10% of the voting population – a 100,000-strong civil service and roughly 30,000 new citizens parachuted in.
Most political analysts foresee a very tight election this time round with some GRCs decided by a mere single-digit votes.
One or more GRCs may fall to the opposition as voters have more push factor to vote for an alternative party having suffer directly from the policies of the government.
Unless the ruling party could implement significant changes in the near future, we may see the emergence of a two-party governance – long hail as the hallmark of a true-blue democratic country.
Thanks & Warmest Regards,
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Gilbert Goh
* The writer is the founder and president of Transitioning, a non-profit society dedicated to cater to the emotional needs of the unemployed in Singapore.
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Like this article. It makes sense. More on the ground. Seldom have such articles.
Most articles are either too opposing and negative without reasons, or too pro-ruling without even thinking twice. -
some one should post this article in the more popular forums like Stomp................those young fuckers over there don't even have half a brain to think................
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Originally posted by Asromanista2001:
some one should post this article in the more popular forums like Stomp................those young fuckers over there don't even have half a brain to think................
Maybe you post? Anyway, I doubt stomp will accept this article. Its leaned more towards gossips and all that. It doesnt want to get political.
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I have never heard more about the opposition these few years than the past 15 years. Perhaps for the baby boomers, it's way longer.
We have been suppressed from such information for so....so long. Thank god for the internet or I would have to get out of the country (though I'm already out) before I read alternative news!
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Even newspapers have to report on the opposition these days, including positive ones.
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Informations have blossomed so there are more voices from all direction through the internet.
Unlike old days when reading Herald Tribune was available few days or one week after publication.
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THe thing about SG is that everything started to go downhill from 1999 onwards. Right now, a regime change is needed to invigorate the moribund atmosphere and stem the rot. Either that or PAP rules only as a minority government.
A shame that the GRC system discourages independents from running. Non-party candidates are better able to deliver on their election promises if voted in, as they have no obligations to any major party line.
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Originally posted by Junyang700:
Maybe you post? Anyway, I doubt stomp will accept this article. Its leaned more towards gossips and all that. It doesnt want to get political.
i kana banned from there lah.............that's why i come here.............since Stomp advertised by Straits Times.........it's pro-PAP...........that's why i kana banned.........
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http://www.temasekreview.com/2010/11/22/sdp-to-focus-on-minimum-wage-and-singaporeans-first-policy/
Think min wage will eventually be implemented in one way or another?
