next crisis around the corner
-
i am strong believer that the crisis is just around the corner.
The world has basically change little since the last financial crisis.
china has acted to slow inflation by raising rates thus will cause economy growth to slow. it wont be long before india follow suit. they see what happen in egypt and would do whatever they could to stop that from happening.. the evil world is inflation.
USA QE2 will indirectly cause oil prices which is still traded in USA to raise further. causing more distress to already fragile growth especially in developed countries while inflation pressure will cause developing nation such as china and india to act.
EU debts are not going to go away anytime soon. EU central banks might help to bail out greece, ireland, portugal, spain... but they interest rate they had to pay back might mean they had to raise income tax and further curb the spending power of such countries.
-
just stop speculation
-
Originally posted by reyes:
i am strong believer that the crisis is just around the corner.
The world has basically change little since the last financial crisis.
china has acted to slow inflation by raising rates thus will cause economy growth to slow. it wont be long before india follow suit. they see what happen in egypt and would do whatever they could to stop that from happening.. the evil world is inflation.
USA QE2 will indirectly cause oil prices which is still traded in USA to raise further. causing more distress to already fragile growth especially in developed countries while inflation pressure will cause developing nation such as china and india to act.
EU debts are not going to go away anytime soon. EU central banks might help to bail out greece, ireland, portugal, spain... but they interest rate they had to pay back might mean they had to raise income tax and further curb the spending power of such countries.
I got the same feeling.....sigh....
-
i dont think this is pure speculation on my pt. if you had follow the situation closely. you will feel how edgey and uncomfortable asian countries about the inflow of money into their country, singapore alike.
USA growth are 1% with unemployment at 9%.
EU debts are going to stifle growth in most counties as they struggle to pay back bailout money. only way out is increase taxes and further curb consumer spending.
china and india and Brazil are probably the bright spots but unrest in egypt will cause especially china to take hard action to preserve their power control more than just economically growth. Inflation is probably the sparking pt for the egypt unrest.
hyper Inflation problems will occur more frequently than ever. weather conditions dictate prices of food, crave for energy as oil supply dwindle will create demand for crops such as corn as energy sources will create further stress on food prices.
-
in history, inflation causes lotsa of uprising.
hitler came to power due to germany hyper inflation era.
china peasant revolution are also cause by ppl would dont have enough to eat or pay for their food.
middle east could see wave of demostration against autocratic rule if spread further could disrupt oil supply and causes massive price hike on energy prices and causes world growth to be stagnant.
-
all ''official'' economic figures are manipulated by Govt......................
in US, unemployment rate is at least 15% and higher....................many people gave up filling up forms looking for jobs so the unemployment rate fell...................
GLOBAL DEPRESSION is coming for sure................the longer they delay it, the worse it'll be..................
China and Brazil and other emerging markets will crash heavily.....................Chinese Govt will most likely fall as well................
all thanks to greedy Jewish bankers...................you can't grow economy with debt...............becoz of interests.................and to loan out more money , they created the 1.4 QUADRILLION derivative contract market (scam)......................
that's 1,400 Trillion........................even a 1% collapse of that market is enough to kill the world liao..............
-
bro, although your view are abit racist against jews, but in truth, jews do play a big part in all this mess.
maybe in years to come, more and more ppl will rewrite history of hitler final solution.
-
jews play a big part ???
they're the SOLE cause of it......................
the Great Depression was started by JP Morgan and other jewish banks..................and they're about to start the 2nd one..............
derivative contracts were invented by JP Morgan...............
virtually all the big banks are jewish.............JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Lehman bros, Merrill Lynch, etc etc...........
gold and silver manipulated by JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs..................
oil contracts by JP Morgan............
the jews have been doing this for Great Depression, World Wars 1&2...............
they crash everything...................and then they buy up what they want at a fraction of the cost.......................and on to the next boom period......................
### everyone has been bullshitting about buying gold/silver.......................and then they'll crash these markets and kill everyone.....................
guess who are selling gold/silver to the common people ?
### why did the Rothschilds exit the gold market just when it's booming ??? They've been setting gold prices for over 100 years....................
-
Here are what could happen or already happened in 2011..
1.There Will Be No Recovery in the US: As a nation, USA will borrow about $1.8 trillion at all government levels (Federal, State and Local), of which roughly half will be by way of money printing. Simply put, the answer to a problem of debt is not more of it. One day soon enough USA will have to live within its means.. and the US will not do it voluntarily but at the point of a bond market's spear like Greece. The American people will begin to understand in 2011 that the only recovery thats happening is on Wall Street. Look for the U6 measurement of unemployment to stay above it's current 17%.
2. Muni Bond Implosions: With the end of the Build America Bonds program.. which was an important financial tool for local governments.. and the election of a Republican House, it seems that pretty much all Federal aid to state and local governments will end. With this, look for states to balance their budgets by cuts to local governments. I think dozens of cities and counties will bite the dust financially this year, either with a formal declaration of bankruptcy or by simply falling dramatically behind on their bills. California, Illinois, Michigan, Florida, Nevada and New York cities and counties look particularly vulnerable. Look for Obama to try.. but fail.. to throw them a lifeline. Bernanke may also begin purchasing Muni's. These failures will shake ordinary Americans.
3. Euro Crisis v2.0.. The EU will continue its financial collapse, as nations like Spain, Portugal, and Italy will join Greece and Ireland in facing the stark choice between (Option 1) bailing out THEIR banksters or (Option 2) having THEIR nation go bankrupt. The IMF/World Bank model of "rescuing" these EU nations were perfected on the so-called Third World nations such as Argentina (viz., John Perkins' book, "Confessions of an Economic Hitman"). In 2001, Argentina defaulted on its IMF loans, i.e., it was forced to take Option 2, and its people suffered tremendously as the majority of its middle class was literally wiped out overnight. The Banksters in Argentina (with such strange and exotic names like JPMorgan Chase, Citibank, etc.) were able to fly out their billions of USD on private jets before the forced conversion and devaluation of the Argentina pesos/savings were implemented on the masses. Millions of Argentineans keep their savings as USD in their banks before the collapse. When the forced conversion and devaluation of those USD savings were imposed on its citizens, the banks were closed and ATMs withdrawals were limited to a few hundred pesos (less than $50 USD) per person per day. Overnight, Argentineans saw their savings lose over 75% in value (the peso went from 1:1 to 4:1, requiring 4 pesos to buy 1 USD overnight). And then the multi-national corporations came in like financial vultures and bought up the natural resources and public utilities for pennies on the USD. THAT is IMF's Option 2 for Spain, Portugal, and Italy. Option 1 is long term financial servitude and slavery for the citizens of the bankrupt country as is happening to Ireland. The EU/ECB/IMF plans to deal with the cascade of bad debts, overleveraged banks and overindebted governments is suspect. The EU's central bank, the European Central Bank, has essentially reached the limits of what it can do. Look for Spain, which needs to borrow $400 billion this year.. much of it in the first quarter.. to hit the wall and need to be bailed out.
4.Market will continue it's bull run into Mar 2011 with oil sky rocketing to $100 or more.When the above 1,2 &3 happen,then out of a sudden, stock market begin to plunge and will plunge all the way to the lowest seen in decades. USD will reverse and begin it's upward trend as the whole world starts to flock into safe haven currency. Ben of the fed and his master Obama and Timothy are now the most hated people in the US and they are no longer in good term due to deterioting economy. World real estate properties will also crash and unemployment rates shoot through the sky. Countries will starts to practice protectionism and interest rates starts to rise rapidly. Cash becomes the rare commodity and many who are in debts will become bankrupts and social unrest will increase. Crimes and suicides will also rise and this will continue for at least another 7 years
5.QE 3.0.. the MBS Edition: I look for Bernanke to begin purchases of MBS in summer; look for it to be in the neighborhood of $500 billion. The state of the US housing market will become dire by mid summer, threatening the health of many big banks.
6. The major export nations like China, Russia, Brazil, India, Argentina, and others will engage in and increase their non USD-denominated trading among themselves, as exemplified by the recent China-Russia trade agreements whereby they would start trading in Rubles and Yuans, and not use USD as is typically transacted in international trades for commodities and oil. This will put increasing devaluation pressures on the USD. So, look forward to the US Dollar Index to drop further from the low 80s now to the low 70s or even lower in 2011.
7. Inflation will run rampant in China as it is already doing so with retail food prices. Unless China allows its Yuan to appreciate (increase in value) against the ever falling USD, rampant inflation in China will continue its course unabated. If China allows its Yuan to appreciate by any significant amount (7% or more), such an action will DECIMATE its export industries and manufacturers, because of the extremely thin profit margins that their exporters have to work with. China will raise its interest rates to try to stop inflation but that will not do the job. In fact, raising interest rates will only cause more foreign currencies to go into China in search of higher yields, unless China imposes strict restrictions on the importation of foreign currencies and investments.
8. The Chinese real estate market, the last investment vehicle in China for those Chinese with money, will also begin its collapse suddenly, hitting hard cities like Shanghai, Beijing, Fuzhou, etc. According to a very recent article by UK's Daily Mail Online, there are as many as 64 MILLION empty homes in China with no one occupying these brand new homes! This China real estate crash will have serious implications for the real estate market in Vancouver. There won't be m/any Chinese millionaires plunking down $1+ million CASH for buying real estate in Vancouver, as has been the case over the recent years.
9.There will be violent weather episodes all over the globe. The La Nina condition that is now dominating global weather is the strongest in 50 years. This will make a dramatic shift to El Nino conditions this summer. This will set the stage for a very big Atlantic hurricane year. There will 12 named storms. Two cat. 4 storms will hit the mainland.
10. Food prices. A Jan. 3 Times of India headline raised a question in many an Asian mind: “Can government do nothing legally to check prices?” The answer is, Not much. The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization predicts that the global cost of importing foodstuffs totaled $1.026 trillion in 2010, compared with $893 billion in 2009. We haven’t seen anything yet. Imbalances in supply and demand and regional trade rigidities will accelerate the trend, swamping developing nations with the most basic of problems: Filling the bellies of those powering their economic rise. Rising costs for cooking-oil, rice and fish may mean little to the average Goldman Sachs Group Inc. staffer. To a family living on $3 a day and already spending two-thirds of income on food, they are devastating. Rising wealth disparities could foreshadow a year of tensions, as failed harvests and inflation cause famines, riots, hoarding and trade wars worldwide. The bubble here would be one in human suffering.
11. Silver and gold will continue to climb in 2011. Silver will increase much more than gold in 2011, as the "Crash JP Morgan, Buy Silver" viral campaign started by Max Kaiser in early November will take off exponentially in 2011. Silver will breach $50 per ounce in 2011. Commodities: I believe commodities will have an up year as the economic surge in Asia continues. If the Euro Crisis is serious enough, it could bring commodities downward as the US Dollar surges. Look for crude to hit $100, silver to hit $35 and wheat to hit $8.50 again. Americans will grumble loudly as gasoline approaches $3.50/gal and grocery bills are higher, due in large part to Mr.Bernanke's printing presses.
12.Wake-Up Call The people of all nations, having become convinced of the inability of leaders and know-it-all "arbiters of everything" to fulfill their promises, will do more than just question authority, they will defy it. The seeds of revolution will be sown.
13.Youth of the World Unite University degrees in hand yet out of work, in debt and with no prospects on the horizon, feeling betrayed and angry, young adults and 20-somethings are mad as hell, and they're not going to take it anymore. Not mature enough to control their impulses, the confrontations they engage in will escalate disproportionately.
14. Crack-Up 2011 In 2011, with the bailout funds and arsenal of other schemes to prop up the economy depleted, teetering economies will collapse, currency wars will ensue, trade barriers will be erected, economic unions will splinter, and the onset of the "Greatest Depression" will be recognized by everyone.
15. Beware of Black Swans: The world is a complex and dangerous place and has an exceedingly fragile economic system. One good shove will likely be enough to send the world's economy over the edge. A new Korean War, a war with Iran, a revolution in Greece or even an angry Mother Earth might be enough to send us all into an economic apocalypse thanks to the monstrous debt levels and credit default swaps. In 2002, the world's total debt was $60 trillion. This year, that amount reached $188 trillion, nevermind the hundreds of trillions more in credit default swaps. As I have always said, one day this will end very badly and very quickly...
-
Good work, guys, thanks for some insights in the what the future lies ahead. Seems pretty bleak, I guess. The balance of powers are re-balancing itself again.
-
oil, gold.... are specualted
-
at least someone can see some of the major problems lying ahead of us.
we definitely are not out of the woods yet.
however i do not see housing bubbles in china as most of the ppl i deal with in china purchase home paying almost 30-50% upfront especially in second tier city. most chinese hardlanders still prefer buying something when they had the money rather borrowing thru banks. would china put priority in fighing inflation rather than persue of growth. if the former is what china is after, growth will decline, easing inflationary pressure but causing prices of houses to fall as well. wiping away those who had invested, the middle class suffer the most
-
Don't worry.
Just go ahead and buy that hdb flat for half a million dollars.
Your job is secure and you will get annual increments of 10% for the rest of your working life.
You can look forward to retiring at 55 and taking all your cpf too.
Really.
-
I believe that all crisis can be addressed, so long as identified early. For the purpose of this discussion, the antidote is simple. Somebody just crack a joke.
Let me try. Now, I am at school canteen.
The China student in front of me at canteen... can you please...
... go into the toilet and remove your pair of black stockings? It is... torn... and it is revealing one huge hole of your beige on your fleshy leg. You are disturbing the sparrows in the canteen.
Fashion crisis are equally fatal.
-
No birds were harmed in the production of this post above.
-
Originally posted by FBFIce:
oil, gold.... are specualted
oil and gold............manipulated...........not speculated.........
-
Originally posted by Asromanista2001:
jews play a big part ???
they're the SOLE cause of it......................
the Great Depression was started by JP Morgan and other jewish banks..................and they're about to start the 2nd one..............
derivative contracts were invented by JP Morgan...............
virtually all the big banks are jewish.............JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Lehman bros, Merrill Lynch, etc etc...........
gold and silver manipulated by JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs..................
oil contracts by JP Morgan............
the jews have been doing this for Great Depression, World Wars 1&2...............
they crash everything...................and then they buy up what they want at a fraction of the cost.......................and on to the next boom period......................
### everyone has been bullshitting about buying gold/silver.......................and then they'll crash these markets and kill everyone.....................
guess who are selling gold/silver to the common people ?
### why did the Rothschilds exit the gold market just when it's booming ??? They've been setting gold prices for over 100 years....................
-
Originally posted by Asromanista2001:
oil and gold............manipulated...........not speculated.........
those speculating gold n oil futures must be idiots then -
Bro not so soon. NOw Bull run and abit correction
-
Why worry our government has painted a very nice picture for us to have confidence in them. They are even planning to give out goodies on 18 Feb 2011.
-
Originally posted by FBFIce:
those speculating gold n oil futures must be idiots thennot all are idiots....................you still can make money if markets are manipulated..............
either you're an insider.................got inside info.................or you're just damn good...........
-
Originally posted by ahtansh:
Why worry our government has painted a very nice picture for us to have confidence in them. They are even planning to give out goodies on 18 Feb 2011.
the usual pre-elections bullshit....................
what goodies ??? it's your money in the 1st place !
-
Originally posted by Itedino:
Bro not so soon. NOw Bull run and abit correction
this bull run is done by the big commercial banks and hedge funds....................
they're trying to soak up as much money as they can from retail investors before the party ends...................
-
Originally posted by homer28:
Here are what could happen or already happened in 2011..
1.There Will Be No Recovery in the US: As a nation, USA will borrow about $1.8 trillion at all government levels (Federal, State and Local), of which roughly half will be by way of money printing. Simply put, the answer to a problem of debt is not more of it. One day soon enough USA will have to live within its means.. and the US will not do it voluntarily but at the point of a bond market's spear like Greece. The American people will begin to understand in 2011 that the only recovery thats happening is on Wall Street. Look for the U6 measurement of unemployment to stay above it's current 17%.
2. Muni Bond Implosions: With the end of the Build America Bonds program.. which was an important financial tool for local governments.. and the election of a Republican House, it seems that pretty much all Federal aid to state and local governments will end. With this, look for states to balance their budgets by cuts to local governments. I think dozens of cities and counties will bite the dust financially this year, either with a formal declaration of bankruptcy or by simply falling dramatically behind on their bills. California, Illinois, Michigan, Florida, Nevada and New York cities and counties look particularly vulnerable. Look for Obama to try.. but fail.. to throw them a lifeline. Bernanke may also begin purchasing Muni's. These failures will shake ordinary Americans.
3. Euro Crisis v2.0.. The EU will continue its financial collapse, as nations like Spain, Portugal, and Italy will join Greece and Ireland in facing the stark choice between (Option 1) bailing out THEIR banksters or (Option 2) having THEIR nation go bankrupt. The IMF/World Bank model of "rescuing" these EU nations were perfected on the so-called Third World nations such as Argentina (viz., John Perkins' book, "Confessions of an Economic Hitman"). In 2001, Argentina defaulted on its IMF loans, i.e., it was forced to take Option 2, and its people suffered tremendously as the majority of its middle class was literally wiped out overnight. The Banksters in Argentina (with such strange and exotic names like JPMorgan Chase, Citibank, etc.) were able to fly out their billions of USD on private jets before the forced conversion and devaluation of the Argentina pesos/savings were implemented on the masses. Millions of Argentineans keep their savings as USD in their banks before the collapse. When the forced conversion and devaluation of those USD savings were imposed on its citizens, the banks were closed and ATMs withdrawals were limited to a few hundred pesos (less than $50 USD) per person per day. Overnight, Argentineans saw their savings lose over 75% in value (the peso went from 1:1 to 4:1, requiring 4 pesos to buy 1 USD overnight). And then the multi-national corporations came in like financial vultures and bought up the natural resources and public utilities for pennies on the USD. THAT is IMF's Option 2 for Spain, Portugal, and Italy. Option 1 is long term financial servitude and slavery for the citizens of the bankrupt country as is happening to Ireland. The EU/ECB/IMF plans to deal with the cascade of bad debts, overleveraged banks and overindebted governments is suspect. The EU's central bank, the European Central Bank, has essentially reached the limits of what it can do. Look for Spain, which needs to borrow $400 billion this year.. much of it in the first quarter.. to hit the wall and need to be bailed out.
4.Market will continue it's bull run into Mar 2011 with oil sky rocketing to $100 or more.When the above 1,2 &3 happen,then out of a sudden, stock market begin to plunge and will plunge all the way to the lowest seen in decades. USD will reverse and begin it's upward trend as the whole world starts to flock into safe haven currency. Ben of the fed and his master Obama and Timothy are now the most hated people in the US and they are no longer in good term due to deterioting economy. World real estate properties will also crash and unemployment rates shoot through the sky. Countries will starts to practice protectionism and interest rates starts to rise rapidly. Cash becomes the rare commodity and many who are in debts will become bankrupts and social unrest will increase. Crimes and suicides will also rise and this will continue for at least another 7 years
5.QE 3.0.. the MBS Edition: I look for Bernanke to begin purchases of MBS in summer; look for it to be in the neighborhood of $500 billion. The state of the US housing market will become dire by mid summer, threatening the health of many big banks.
6. The major export nations like China, Russia, Brazil, India, Argentina, and others will engage in and increase their non USD-denominated trading among themselves, as exemplified by the recent China-Russia trade agreements whereby they would start trading in Rubles and Yuans, and not use USD as is typically transacted in international trades for commodities and oil. This will put increasing devaluation pressures on the USD. So, look forward to the US Dollar Index to drop further from the low 80s now to the low 70s or even lower in 2011.
7. Inflation will run rampant in China as it is already doing so with retail food prices. Unless China allows its Yuan to appreciate (increase in value) against the ever falling USD, rampant inflation in China will continue its course unabated. If China allows its Yuan to appreciate by any significant amount (7% or more), such an action will DECIMATE its export industries and manufacturers, because of the extremely thin profit margins that their exporters have to work with. China will raise its interest rates to try to stop inflation but that will not do the job. In fact, raising interest rates will only cause more foreign currencies to go into China in search of higher yields, unless China imposes strict restrictions on the importation of foreign currencies and investments.
8. The Chinese real estate market, the last investment vehicle in China for those Chinese with money, will also begin its collapse suddenly, hitting hard cities like Shanghai, Beijing, Fuzhou, etc. According to a very recent article by UK's Daily Mail Online, there are as many as 64 MILLION empty homes in China with no one occupying these brand new homes! This China real estate crash will have serious implications for the real estate market in Vancouver. There won't be m/any Chinese millionaires plunking down $1+ million CASH for buying real estate in Vancouver, as has been the case over the recent years.
9.There will be violent weather episodes all over the globe. The La Nina condition that is now dominating global weather is the strongest in 50 years. This will make a dramatic shift to El Nino conditions this summer. This will set the stage for a very big Atlantic hurricane year. There will 12 named storms. Two cat. 4 storms will hit the mainland.
10. Food prices. A Jan. 3 Times of India headline raised a question in many an Asian mind: “Can government do nothing legally to check prices?” The answer is, Not much. The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization predicts that the global cost of importing foodstuffs totaled $1.026 trillion in 2010, compared with $893 billion in 2009. We haven’t seen anything yet. Imbalances in supply and demand and regional trade rigidities will accelerate the trend, swamping developing nations with the most basic of problems: Filling the bellies of those powering their economic rise. Rising costs for cooking-oil, rice and fish may mean little to the average Goldman Sachs Group Inc. staffer. To a family living on $3 a day and already spending two-thirds of income on food, they are devastating. Rising wealth disparities could foreshadow a year of tensions, as failed harvests and inflation cause famines, riots, hoarding and trade wars worldwide. The bubble here would be one in human suffering.
11. Silver and gold will continue to climb in 2011. Silver will increase much more than gold in 2011, as the "Crash JP Morgan, Buy Silver" viral campaign started by Max Kaiser in early November will take off exponentially in 2011. Silver will breach $50 per ounce in 2011. Commodities: I believe commodities will have an up year as the economic surge in Asia continues. If the Euro Crisis is serious enough, it could bring commodities downward as the US Dollar surges. Look for crude to hit $100, silver to hit $35 and wheat to hit $8.50 again. Americans will grumble loudly as gasoline approaches $3.50/gal and grocery bills are higher, due in large part to Mr.Bernanke's printing presses.
12.Wake-Up Call The people of all nations, having become convinced of the inability of leaders and know-it-all "arbiters of everything" to fulfill their promises, will do more than just question authority, they will defy it. The seeds of revolution will be sown.
13.Youth of the World Unite University degrees in hand yet out of work, in debt and with no prospects on the horizon, feeling betrayed and angry, young adults and 20-somethings are mad as hell, and they're not going to take it anymore. Not mature enough to control their impulses, the confrontations they engage in will escalate disproportionately.
14. Crack-Up 2011 In 2011, with the bailout funds and arsenal of other schemes to prop up the economy depleted, teetering economies will collapse, currency wars will ensue, trade barriers will be erected, economic unions will splinter, and the onset of the "Greatest Depression" will be recognized by everyone.
15. Beware of Black Swans: The world is a complex and dangerous place and has an exceedingly fragile economic system. One good shove will likely be enough to send the world's economy over the edge. A new Korean War, a war with Iran, a revolution in Greece or even an angry Mother Earth might be enough to send us all into an economic apocalypse thanks to the monstrous debt levels and credit default swaps. In 2002, the world's total debt was $60 trillion. This year, that amount reached $188 trillion, nevermind the hundreds of trillions more in credit default swaps. As I have always said, one day this will end very badly and very quickly...
ok... i like this analysis... very detailed.