SG towards Stagflation?
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SG may boast its exceptionally high GDP growth rate now, but i see beyond the numbers and SG's future doesn't seem so bright to me
Just like Japan many years ago, japan's path to a decade long of stagflation was preceded by a housing boom from cheap money and speculation. Its government ran out of the traditional (keneysian) ammunitions of avoiding a recession: lowering interest rates and running into deficits. But the government had a limit to running the deficits without causing a hyper inflation and interest rates were already at zero. and so there was no choice but to let the japanese economy freefall.
Same goes for the US. housing boom then bust causing a crisis; its literally zero percent interest rates were not enough but unlike japan, because USD is the world's reserve currency, it could print money and let the other countries absorb the 'inflation tax'. Its stimulus packages and bailouts are costing the government a fortune however. and are buying time until the truth of US's worthless currency comes to light and the freefall of the US economy will ensue.
Similar story of Singapore, near zero interest rates, enormous stimulus packages, running into government deficits, buying military jets we don't need, speculative housing prices with the expectation that 1.5 more million people are going to immigrate to SG. Singapore is so small it cannot afford to run much of a deficit, neither can it afford bailouts should a crisis ensue here at home
When global interest rates rise, and it will soon, Singapore would have ran out of bullets to defend its economy, its tourism sector so dependent on low interest rates will suffer and make losses, housing prices will drop back down to earth, and it would stagflate or at least fade away..
Its saving graces, as i see it. Are for the government to maintain low taxes, and for the singapore economy to remain one of the freest in the world, and for the rest of the world to be so much worse off that there would be a net immigration into SG.
What do you guys think?
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Good question….
An increase of demand such as consumption, investment, exports, public works etc. will increase the GDP, provided companies could meet the price and quality requirements of buyers. If not, imports will grow instead. However, our currencies are set against the greenback, and thus this would imply impending trade deficit i.e. more imports than exports. If national production cannot increase for some socio-political or some other reasons, companies producing already at max. capacity may decide to raise prices, and this would cause effective demand to drop with inflation.
Moreover, technological and strategic innovations could have good impact on productivity, on product, process, quality and also costs. These are value added elements to productivity. However, do take note - Capital and labour quality are important ingredients for a growing GDP. If the labour force lacks the motivation or are tired out due to years of unchanged income, then this alone would have disastrous results in the long run on the economy.This is just my personal views...
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we need jets to showoff......its the old,unemployed,poor and sick spore dun really need.
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Japan's successful economy was built on the property 'bubble' that burst in the recent years, leading to its decline. so was the US. Singapore, on the other hand doesnt really depend much on the property sector, and if u guys have been reading the news lately, the government is taking action to curb this property 'surge', so we're considered quite safe, and in the first place, singapore unlike japan, never really depended heavily on the property 'bubble'.
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Originally posted by Casopia-maplesea:
Japan's successful economy was built on the property 'bubble' that burst in the recent years, leading to its decline. so was the US. Singapore, on the other hand doesnt really depend much on the property sector, and if u guys have been reading the news lately, the government is taking action to curb this property 'surge', so we're considered quite safe, and in the first place, singapore unlike japan, never really depended heavily on the property 'bubble'.
1)Yea the government is taking action to curb property prices buy making a committment to keep property prices low is the problem; it distorts the prices and will end up with oversupply. - instead of letting prices rise too high to buy, now everyone can buy at affordable prices.
2) Our High GDP growth rate is not possible when we have negative productivity gains. They come from increase in government spending (military jets, infrastructure, like IR, universal studios) and rising paper value of the houses which keep changing hands which adds up to GDP. i think our GDP is pretty tied to property
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Originally posted by ulquiorra87:
1)Yea the government is taking action to curb property prices buy making a committment to keep property prices low is the problem; it distorts the prices and will end up with oversupply. - instead of letting prices rise too high to buy, now everyone can buy at affordable prices.
2) Our High GDP growth rate is not possible when we have negative productivity gains. They come from increase in government spending (military jets, infrastructure, like IR, universal studios) and rising paper value of the houses which keep changing hands which adds up to GDP. i think our GDP is pretty tied to property
TS, you need to go back to study your economics 101 lor, please go to www.singstat.gov.sg to study the contribution of the different sectors to the Singapore's GDP.
You just claim but without looking at the facts and statistics.
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Originally posted by Seowlah:
TS, you need to go back to study your economics 101 lor, please go to www.singstat.gov.sg to study the contribution of the different sectors to the Singapore's GDP.
You just claim but without looking at the facts and statistics.
seow liao lah, he must had studied the wrong one, studied beijing 101 -
We need to import more people into the country to increase GDP.
Maybe another 2 or 3 million more.
Really.
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Originally posted by Seowlah:
TS, you need to go back to study your economics 101 lor, please go to www.singstat.gov.sg to study the contribution of the different sectors to the Singapore's GDP.
You just claim but without looking at the facts and statistics.
Lol thanks for backing me up with the website maybe you should be studying the economics 101. Take a look at the stats
Construction in 2009 was exceptionally high(despite everything else negative) and still is in 2010, and is the main reason why 2009 was not as bad as it should have been
Manufacturing and goods producing industries growth increased enormously in 2010 in line with extremely exceptional increased amount of visitors in 2010 (completion of IR and Universal studios, YOG, F1) which shows how dependent we are on tourism.
Seowlah or maybe you can point out to me what i missed out im curious.
Or maybe lets let time tell aye, I've already placed money where my mouth is, and i'm abit too busy to write more about the american economy
Angel STFU
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Originally posted by ulquiorra87:
Lol thanks for backing me up with the website maybe you should be studying the economics 101. Take a look at the stats
Construction in 2009 was exceptionally high(despite everything else negative) and still is in 2010, and is the main reason why 2009 was not as bad as it should have been
Manufacturing and goods producing industries growth increased enormously in 2010 in line with extremely exceptional increased amount of visitors in 2010 (completion of IR and Universal studios, YOG, F1) which shows how dependent we are on tourism.
Seowlah or maybe you can point out to me what i missed out im curious.
Or maybe lets let time tell aye, I've already placed money where my mouth is, and i'm abit too busy to write more about the american economy
Angel STFU
TS, you only choose to read the part that you like to read, you only read the blue part only hor.
"In the second quarter of 2010, Singapore expanded by 18.8 per cent on a year-on-year basis, stronger than the 16.9 per cent growth in the first quarter. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter annualised basis, GDP grew by 24.0 per cent for the second quarter, following a surge of 45.7 per cent in the preceding period.
Manufacturing output expanded by 44.5 per cent on a year-on-year basis. Growth was led by the biomedical manufacturing and electronics clusters, which increased production of higher value active pharmaceutical ingredients and semiconductor chips. The construction sector grew by 11.5 per cent, supported by an increase in public sector construction activities.
The services producing industries continued to expand by 11.2 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2010. The wholesale & retail trade sector expanded by 18.9 per cent on the back of strong global trade flows, while the financial services sector grew by 10.2 per cent due to increased foreign exchange trading activities and domestic bank lending. The hotels & restaurants sector as well as other services industries also saw double-digit growth rates of 10.4 per cent and 12.9 per cent respectively, bolstered by higher visitor arrivals and activities in the new Integrated Resorts.
Real GDP grew by 17.9 per cent in the first half of 2010, as compared to 2.8 per cent in the preceding second half of 2009."
Do you know how to compute the overall economic growth of a country ?
Do you know how to calculate the percentage contribution of each sector to the overall economic growth of a country ?
Please go back to study your economics 101 lor.
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I think somebody has a problem understanding this statement.
SG may boast its exceptionally high GDP growth rate now, but i see beyond the numbers and SG's future doesn't seem so bright to me
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Somebody needs to retake English 101.
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Originally posted by Seowlah:
TS, you only choose to read the part that you like to read, you only read the blue part only hor.
"In the second quarter of 2010, Singapore expanded by 18.8 per cent on a year-on-year basis, stronger than the 16.9 per cent growth in the first quarter. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter annualised basis, GDP grew by 24.0 per cent for the second quarter, following a surge of 45.7 per cent in the preceding period.
Manufacturing output expanded by 44.5 per cent on a year-on-year basis. Growth was led by the biomedical manufacturing and electronics clusters, which increased production of higher value active pharmaceutical ingredients and semiconductor chips. The construction sector grew by 11.5 per cent, supported by an increase in public sector construction activities.
The services producing industries continued to expand by 11.2 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2010. The wholesale & retail trade sector expanded by 18.9 per cent on the back of strong global trade flows, while the financial services sector grew by 10.2 per cent due to increased foreign exchange trading activities and domestic bank lending. The hotels & restaurants sector as well as other services industries also saw double-digit growth rates of 10.4 per cent and 12.9 per cent respectively, bolstered by higher visitor arrivals and activities in the new Integrated Resorts.
Real GDP grew by 17.9 per cent in the first half of 2010, as compared to 2.8 per cent in the preceding second half of 2009."
Do you know how to compute the overall economic growth of a country ?
Do you know how to calculate the percentage contribution of each sector to the overall economic growth of a country ?
Please go back to study your economics 101 lor.
I didn't deny the current GDP growth of singapore dude. Your entire last post just validated my FIrst post's first sentence.
And yes i know how to compute all those; are you an idiot? My topic was on the future of Singapore, what happens when global interest rates rise, and the government, which is already in debt, cannot afford another stimulus package(or it may be able to but not without impunity), and cannot increase money supply anymore because CPI is already at 3%?
These industries so linked to the interest rates will fail. And did it occur to you that maybe the enormous stimulus package contributed to part of this 'growth'?
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Originally posted by βÎτά:
I think somebody has a problem understanding this statement.
SG may boast its exceptionally high GDP growth rate now, but i see beyond the numbers and SG's future doesn't seem so bright to me
LOL exactly
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Originally posted by ulquiorra87:
I didn't deny the current GDP growth of singapore dude. Your entire last post just validated my FIrst post's first sentence.
And yes i know how to compute all those; are you an idiot? My topic was on the future of Singapore, what happens when global interest rates rise, and the government, which is already in debt, cannot afford another stimulus package(or it may be able to but not without impunity), and cannot increase money supply anymore because CPI is already at 3%?
These industries so linked to the interest rates will fail. And did it occur to you that maybe the enormous stimulus package contributed to part of this 'growth'?
TS, I quoted your posting on 5th September, 2010 point 2
"2) Our High GDP growth rate is not possible when we have negative productivity gains. They come from increase in government spending (military jets, infrastructure, like IR, universal studios) and rising paper value of the houses which keep changing hands which adds up to GDP. i think our GDP is pretty tied to property"
"rising paper value of the houses which keep changing hands which adds up to GDP" ??? You don't even know that GDP does not include the re-sale value of houses.
Please go back to study your "A" level economics lor.
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The statistics that I shown you in the earlier post has shown how the different sectors contributed to the overall economic growth of the economy.
"Manufacturing output expanded by 44.5 per cent on a year-on-year basis. Growth was led by the biomedical manufacturing and electronics clusters, which increased production of higher value active pharmaceutical ingredients and semiconductor chips. The construction sector grew by 11.5 per cent, supported by an increase in public sector construction activities.
The services producing industries continued to expand by 11.2 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2010. The wholesale & retail trade sector expanded by 18.9 per cent on the back of strong global trade flows, while the financial services sector grew by 10.2 per cent due to increased foreign exchange trading activities and domestic bank lending. The hotels & restaurants sector as well as other services industries also saw double-digit growth rates of 10.4 per cent and 12.9 per cent respectively, bolstered by higher visitor arrivals and activities in the new Integrated Resorts.
Real GDP grew by 17.9 per cent in the first half of 2010, as compared to 2.8 per cent in the preceding second half of 2009"
Your claim that "Our High GDP growth rate is not possible when we have negative productivity gains. They come from increase in government spending (military jets, infrastructure, like IR, universal studios) and rising paper value of the houses which keep changing hands which adds up to GDP" just shows that you do not KNOW how to calculate the different sectors contributed to the overall economic growth of the economy.
Please go back to study your economics 101 lah.
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Originally posted by Seowlah:
TS, I quoted your posting on 5th September, 2010 point 2
"2) Our High GDP growth rate is not possible when we have negative productivity gains. They come from increase in government spending (military jets, infrastructure, like IR, universal studios) and rising paper value of the houses which keep changing hands which adds up to GDP. i think our GDP is pretty tied to property"
"rising paper value of the houses which keep changing hands which adds up to GDP" ??? You don't even know that GDP does not include the re-sale value of houses.
Please go back to study your "A" level economics lor.
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The statistics that I shown you in the earlier post has shown how the different sectors contributed to the overall economic growth of the economy.
"Manufacturing output expanded by 44.5 per cent on a year-on-year basis. Growth was led by the biomedical manufacturing and electronics clusters, which increased production of higher value active pharmaceutical ingredients and semiconductor chips. The construction sector grew by 11.5 per cent, supported by an increase in public sector construction activities.
The services producing industries continued to expand by 11.2 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2010. The wholesale & retail trade sector expanded by 18.9 per cent on the back of strong global trade flows, while the financial services sector grew by 10.2 per cent due to increased foreign exchange trading activities and domestic bank lending. The hotels & restaurants sector as well as other services industries also saw double-digit growth rates of 10.4 per cent and 12.9 per cent respectively, bolstered by higher visitor arrivals and activities in the new Integrated Resorts.
Real GDP grew by 17.9 per cent in the first half of 2010, as compared to 2.8 per cent in the preceding second half of 2009"
Your claim that "Our High GDP growth rate is not possible when we have negative productivity gains. They come from increase in government spending (military jets, infrastructure, like IR, universal studios) and rising paper value of the houses which keep changing hands which adds up to GDP" just shows that you do not KNOW how to calculate the different sectors contributed to the overall economic growth of the economy.
Please go back to study your economics 101 lah.
Alright, although we have digressed away from my main topic i shall humor you so'd you shut up and focus on my First post.
Yes i did say
'And rising paper value of the houses which keep changing hands which adds up to GDP'.
It was poorly phrased so let me rephrase it by adding afew words without losing the essence of the point :
'And rising paper value of the houses (which keep changing hands from speculative buying) which adds up to GDP.'
Dumbass.
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Now second point
I still stand by my statement "Our High GDP growth rate is not possible when we have negative productivity gains. They come from increase in government spending (military jets, infrastructure, like IR, universal studios) and rising paper value of the houses which keep changing hands which adds up to GDP". Of course i understand how the different sectors contribute to GDP,
That point is trying to say that these are fake growth and temporary and not meant to say they contribute nothing!
Leme spell it out for you
The 33% of our GDP stimulus package is also government spending, and have caused the caused the CPI to rise from negative to 3% to date. Have you ever thought that growth in the financial services sector and wholesale & retail trade sector was because of the excess stimulus money supply and speculation from false confidence?
Our increase in Manufacturing output, Sure, they are led by some bio thing but they are not the totality of it all? have you thought that these also include temporary things like stocking and all the things we're building? (i.e TEMPORARY?). And the points highlighted in blue are in my favor so i shant elaborate
By the way you should know that GDP also includes government spending which is the increasing debt of the government into the billion. The fact that you so easily dismiss that and the stimulus in your 'GDP presentation' shows that you do NOT KNOW how to calculate the different sectors contributed to the overall economic growth of the economy.
Please go back to study your economics 101 lah.
The fact that i come back from clubbing and still own u means maybe u should go more basic..... maybe economics 100000000000000000000000000001 hahaa
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I am an Econs noob, don't get nasty with me by calling me names, I just learnt this from Google.
Y = C + I + G
Is your I (investments) affected by interest rate in the IS-LM model?
Is investment a long-term financial concept?
If there is an increase in the money supply (more house purchases by foreigners), a shift of LM to the right, will it lead to a lower interest?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4mxT27cYAU
From 2:30 to 4:12, "the end result of the policy of increasing the money supply lowers the interest rates and a higher level of national income results".
Will a lower interest rate affect the value of your I (investments) in the Y = C + I + G accounts?
If the value of your I (investments) increases on the right side of the equation, will the Y (GDP) on the left side of the equation increase to balance out.
So indirectly the changes in house prices does affect GDP.
I think I like Econs, will do Econs 101 when I grow up.
Singapore students too used to rote learning, don't use their brains to analyse the information much, a by-product of our uniquely Singapore education system.
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Originally posted by ulquiorra87:
Alright, although we have digressed away from my main topic i shall humor you so'd you shut up and focus on my First post.
Yes i did say
'And rising paper value of the houses which keep changing hands which adds up to GDP'.
It was poorly phrased so let me rephrase it by adding afew words without losing the essence of the point :
'And rising paper value of the houses (which keep changing hands from speculative buying) which adds up to GDP.'
Dumbass.
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Now second point
I still stand by my statement "Our High GDP growth rate is not possible when we have negative productivity gains. They come from increase in government spending (military jets, infrastructure, like IR, universal studios) and rising paper value of the houses which keep changing hands which adds up to GDP". Of course i understand how the different sectors contribute to GDP,
That point is trying to say that these are fake growth and temporary and not meant to say they contribute nothing!
Leme spell it out for you
The 33% of our GDP stimulus package is also government spending, and have caused the caused the CPI to rise from negative to 3% to date. Have you ever thought that growth in the financial services sector and wholesale & retail trade sector was because of the excess stimulus money supply and speculation from false confidence?
Our increase in Manufacturing output, Sure, they are led by some bio thing but they are not the totality of it all? have you thought that these also include temporary things like stocking and all the things we're building? (i.e TEMPORARY?). And the points highlighted in blue are in my favor so i shant elaborate
By the way you should know that GDP also includes government spending which is the increasing debt of the government into the billion. The fact that you so easily dismiss that and the stimulus in your 'GDP presentation' shows that you do NOT KNOW how to calculate the different sectors contributed to the overall economic growth of the economy.
Please go back to study your economics 101 lah.
The fact that i come back from clubbing and still own u means maybe u should go more basic..... maybe economics 100000000000000000000000000001 hahaa
TS, you just refused to admit that you don't even know about the basic on the calculation of GDP ie GDP does not include the re-sale value of houses.
I quoted your posting "
'And rising paper value of the houses (which keep changing hands from speculative buying) which adds up to GDP.' ie the rising paper value of existing houses is NOT included in the calculation of the GDP, so how can this add up to GDP.
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As I have said before, you just claim without looking at the facts and statistics.
From your posting, it shows that you do not even know the percentage of each sector contributed to the overall economic growth of the economy. You just claim that the high GDP is due to "Our High GDP growth rate is not possible when we have negative productivity gains. They come from increase in government spending (military jets, infrastructure, like IR, universal studios) and rising paper value of the houses which keep changing hands which adds up to GDP", you simply refuse to look at the actual statistics.
Okay I have said what I want to say and forumers who have proper economic knowledge know who is right and I shall not post further on this issue.
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Originally posted by charlize:
We need to import more people into the country to increase GDP.
Maybe another 2 or 3 million more.
Really.
ya, so easy, why not, dun rely on export too much, one day, if the demand is now, we are doom, so by importing people in is good, at least the domestic demand is able to sustain our economy, tho not on the bull side, but at least, on the stable side. The more the merrier, and the more CPF contribution, also the merrier -
That is why our ministers has been going overseas to find opportunities to invest and diversify and expand. Spore too small and too cramp. We need to get out. If not spore biz drop liao.
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MBS is built on reclaimed land, soil from indonesia mountain where people there do not know how to use it, so is T3 at Changi AP, so is esplanade, so it marina south, suntec etc etc...a useless mountain seen by the indonesian in indonesia is now worth billions here...you get the picture. So dun worry, govt knows the limitation.
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Limitation will be exhausted in day.
Built another spore city outside spore will be a good ideal to expand.
And that will be the first country to have 2 different location.
We might be in this direction....a good choice isnt it?
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everything got it limitation, and when that threshold is reached, you become stagnant for a while and then start to deterioriate, my theory of nothing last forever still stand, PAP will go down, singapore will go down, it is a matter of when, roman also fall, Hans also fall, Khan also fall, what is singapore??
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Originally posted by Seowlah:
TS, you just refused to admit that you don't even know about the basic on the calculation of GDP ie GDP does not include the re-sale value of houses.
I quoted your posting "
'And rising paper value of the houses (which keep changing hands from speculative buying) which adds up to GDP.' ie the rising paper value of existing houses is NOT included in the calculation of the GDP, so how can this add up to GDP.
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As I have said before, you just claim without looking at the facts and statistics.
From your posting, it shows that you do not even know the percentage of each sector contributed to the overall economic growth of the economy. You just claim that the high GDP is due to "Our High GDP growth rate is not possible when we have negative productivity gains. They come from increase in government spending (military jets, infrastructure, like IR, universal studios) and rising paper value of the houses which keep changing hands which adds up to GDP", you simply refuse to look at the actual statistics.
Okay I have said what I want to say and forumers who have proper economic knowledge know who is right and I shall not post further on this issue.
Wow you just refuse to look at my postings i never said existing houses. Its the new houses of course why you keep thinking the other way?
I've already explained what you've said in blue it just shows that you don't know how to analyze the statistics and use your brain to think how they come from. you only know how to LOOK and wow mindlessly at it. And keep repeating my same damned poorly phrased words.And by the way you totally didnt talk about my main topic.
product of SG's education system i guess - can't seem to deal with anything remotely outside of what they memorized in school. And pinch at the little things and avoid the main argument
Anyway i do have a real Life. I don't normally post so regularly in SGF at all but i have to defend the thread i create.I shan't now you guys have fun, my first post is food for thought.
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Look beyond the statistics and not being a figure genius. Do you guys know in the construction sector, how many projects was awarded to the foreign companies like Japan, China and India? How many M&E contract is awarded to local companies? Do you know how many new foreign companies registered business here since IR began? Do you know China main contractor will award to china sub-contractor and all their staff strength is like 10 PRC to 1 SG??
So what does GDP numbers means to SGrean?? I think it means more for the foreigner.