New Geographer
Singapore's Demographic Winter
Joel Kotkin, 07.06.10
A catastrophic plunge in the island nation's birthrate could undermine its tremendous economic successes.
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Over the past half century arguably no place on earth has progressed more than the tiny island state of Singapore. A once impoverished, tropical powder keg packed into 268 square miles at the foot of the Malay Peninsula, the Mandarin-led republic has ascended from its difficult founding in 1965 to one of the richest economies on the planet. Today, in terms of purchasing power, its per capita income stands higher than most European countries' or Japan's and is roughly equal to that of the U.S.
But a catastrophic plunge in the country's birthrate--a problem plaguing many of the world's affluent economies--could undermine Singapore's success. In 1965 Singapore's leaders feared it could not survive an unsustainable fertility rate above 3.5 and embarked on a campaign encouraging citizens to have smaller families. Today the country's fertility rate--the number of children per female--has sunk to roughly 1.2 , a rate lower than all but a handful of countries and well below replacement level.
This pattern poses a threat to the republic's continued progress over the coming decades. The dependency ratio between retired persons and those 15 to 64--far lower than Europe, America or Japan in the 1970s--will reach the unsustainable levels of places like Japan, Germany and Italy by 2030. By then there could well be more people over 65 than under 15.
This shift in demographics is a common challenge for almost all advanced countries--even the U.S., which enjoys the healthiest demography of any major wealthy nation. In Europe and particularly Asia, once challenged by overpopulation, there is the looming prospect of what a new documentary calls the "demographic winter."
Of course, not everyone finds this "winter" a chilling thought. A growing chorus of environmentalists, particularly in Europe and the U.S., sees the shrinking numbers of "little monsters" a boon for the planet.
Peter Kareiva, the chief scientist at the Nature Conservancy, one of the more levelheaded environmental organizations, has concluded that not having children is the most effective way of reducing "carbon scenarios" and becoming an "eco hero." Meanwhile the more extremist Voluntary Human Extinction Movement promotes the lovely notion of terminating the species through voluntary childlessness.
For their part, Singapore's leaders have focused on providing parkland, building a functioning subway and recycling city wastes. But these pragmatists show little tolerance for such Western-style species self-hatred. A society proud of its accomplishments, its agglomerated cultures--Chinese, Indian, Malay--continue to value family as the supreme societal unit.
At the same time, many leaders trace the depth of their demographic problem to their own campaign to limit families back in the 1970s. "We have been very successful in reducing the birthrate," observes Lui Pao Chuen, adviser to the National Research Foundation and a prime architect of Singapore's defense systems. "The society will die if it goes on like this. We want our society to live on."
In the past decade Singapore's leaders have tried to change course, attempting to raise the birth rate by offering generous cash incentives and other inducements for baby-making. But so far, they admit, these efforts have had little effect.
Part of the problem may lie with high densities, an inescapable reality in a city-state with literally no suburban periphery. Singapore's public housing--80% of citizens live in government flats--is generally better and larger than those in other Asian countries. Still the prospect of raising children in a 1,000-square-foot, two-bedroom flat may seem less appealing than doing so, say, in a suburban housing estate in Australia, New Zealand, California or Texas.
Equally intractable may be the very competitive spirit at the heart of the republic's success. Singapore possesses two great natural advantages: a strategic location between the Pacific and Indian Oceans and a motivated population. The city's leaders have done a brilliant job of capitalizing on both, developing one of the world's largest ports and one of Asia's best-educated, hardest-working populations.
This in turn has created a population that often places education and career advancement over child-raising, marriage and even dating. Some 85% of singles still express a desire to get married, and nearly 80% want two or three children. But the pressure to succeed often prevails. "The pace of life has people putting things on hold," admits NG Mie Ling, coordinating director for the government's Family Development Group.
Despite these challenges, Singapore may not be doomed to follow Europe and other advanced east Asian nations into the demographic dustbin. For one thing, the city's bureaucracy is cleverer than most and may be able to change some policies--placing more emphasis on leisure time for mate-chasing and child-raising to building larger apartments--to reverse the current birth dearth.
Singapore's unique ethnic and national identity may prove an even bigger asset. Unlike its Asian rivals, Singapore--though mainly Chinese--remains a truly multiracial society. Like America, it is a nation of immigrants. Few can trace their local roots there more than two or three generations. This makes the Republic more suited for accommodating newcomers from China, India and Malaysia, as well as from countries like the Philippines or Vietnam.
Newcomers can find a kindred ethnic or religious community. Many also intermarry with Singaporeans; over 40% of all marriages are between citizens and noncitizens, up from only 30% a decade ago. Interracial marriages are also increasingly common. Whereas it is virtually impossible to become Japanese or Korean, one can become a Singaporean.
Immigration allows Singapore's population and skilled workforce to grow at a healthy clip despite the low birth rate. Today barely 3.2 million of the current nearly 5 million Singaporeans are citizens; many others immigrate to enjoy the excellent schools, the high degree of safety and cleanliness and a political stability that is rare in the region. Last year 60,000 people were granted permanent residency and nearly 20,000 became citizens.
"We are still trying to figure out what it is to be a Singaporean," observes Calvin Soh, chief creative officer in Asia for the Publicis advertising company. This evolving identity may not be obvious in the city's impressive but hardly unique office, hotel and condo complexes. It is best illustrated in the city's remarkable neighborhoods with their open air markets and a strikingly diverse food culture flourishing both in small, family-owned restaurants and hawker stalls.
The city's internationally recognized food scene, Soh believes, could serve as a model for other cultural products, from media and fashion to product design. Ideally suited to serve as the crossroads culture of 21st-century Asia , Singapore can emerge like 14th-century Venice, which flourished by connecting Europe with the civilizations further to the east.
Like their counterparts in other successful countries, Singapore's executives and administrators face enormous demographic challenges. But if any Asian society can confront, or at least ameliorate, the great fertility crisis, it is this tiny island country with a track record of solving seemingly insurmountable problems.
Joel Kotkin is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is also an adjunct fellow at the Legatum Institute in London and serves as executive editor of newgeography.com. He writes the weekly New Geographer column for Forbes. His latest book, The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, was published in February 2010 by Penguin Press.
despite his keen observation, he has forgotten that we have mounting social tension with these newcomers.
it is a wolf''s coming warning,--not true.
1.with SG flexible population policy, SG is building up people bank for future generations.
look at the current pop figues
3.2 million SC
abt 530,000 PR
abt 1.27 foreigners
total abt 5 million
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/pubn/reference/sif2010.pdf
2. Gov's view is SG need 60,000 babies a year. ( i dunt know if gov include 530,000 PR in the 60,000 babies target )
3. So, it need 20,000 new citizens to top up 40,000 current babies production.
in the past few years, SG accepted abt 20,000 new SC a year.
4. if boss cant find any local or PR, they can get FT to work,as in 2 IR.
5. before u guys comment on FT, pl bear in mind that almost all of u are
off springs of FT!!U wont be here if your forefathers were denied access to SG
century ago. They came here becos they could not bear the tough life in their home
countries, be it China, India etc.
6. my friends, when u drink the water,pl remember the source,like the Chinese saying go. be gentle to foreigners, u or your forefathers once are FT too!!
refernce
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/pubn/reference/sif2010.pdf
i dunno if my forefathers were FT but me and two generations before me were born in Singapore. We identified with each other thru common dialects of hokkien, cantonese, hakka etc. These dialects combined with english, chinese, tamil and malay to give us our unique singaporean accent today. We built this nation. We speak singlish and we eat cuisines of all races. You think these FT fuckers do that?
withour new PR and new FT since 1960's, SG would not be the same today!
when SG was kicked out from MY, there was serious unemployment.
This was a good sign that SG needed FT so earlier in late 1960's and
since then , it was history!
So, it will not be suprised that pop can climb 1 million in a decades,if SG
can maintain GDP growth and there is no serious troubles in the region and the world!
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/themes/people/hist/popn.html
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/themes/people/popnindicators.pdf
Key Demographic Indicators, 1970-2008
year.....TOTAL population...=Resident pop(citizens+ PR)....+FT
1960......1,650,000..............1.65m()
1970.....2.07m......................2.01m(1.88m+0.14m).........60,000
1980.....2.41m .....................2.28m(2.19m+0.09)..........130,000
1990.....3.05m......................2.74m(2.62m+0.11m)........310,000
2000.....4.03m......................3.27m( 2.99m + 0.29 m)....760,000
2008.....4.84m......................3.64(3.16m+ 0.48m).......1,200,000
2009.....4.99,.......................3.73m(3.2m + 0.53m)......1,260,000
resident population,total population,FT=non-citizen nor PR,
Singapore population,
Originally posted by Rock^Star:i dunno if my forefathers were FT but me and two generations before me were born in Singapore. We identified with each other thru common dialects of hokkien, cantonese, hakka etc. These dialects combined with english, chinese, tamil and malay to give us our unique singaporean accent today. We built this nation. We speak singlish and we eat cuisines of all races. You think these FT fuckers do that?
if u are Malay, then your forefathers were not FT.
So, if your forefathers r FT, then was he "FT fuckers"(quoted from your words)?
2.Why do u need then follow everything thing SG pple do?
r u sure all we do is correct?
is Singlish is good,when pple cant understand?
Do u think several spoons of chille in a plate of goods is good?
I think forefathers need chille becos their foods, eg rice, was poor quality ,then they needed chille to eat poor quality foods.
u can ask your granny !
wah u are a very noisy lion lol. dun wan to waste my energy.
lion very noisy, i hope your job gets replaced by an FT in future. And if your spurs are stuck in your hide, that's because you're daft :)
to be singaporean = to complain
Originally posted by SANTA CLAUSE:
"We are still trying to figure out what it is to be a Singaporean," observes Calvin Soh, chief creative officer in Asia for the Publicis advertising company.
disturbing.
Like their counterparts in other successful countries, Singapore's executives and administrators face enormous demographic challenges. But if any Asian society can confront, or at least ameliorate, the great fertility crisis, it is this tiny island country with a track record of solving seemingly insurmountable problems.
Joel Kotkin is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is also an adjunct fellow at the Legatum Institute in London and serves as executive editor ofnewgeography.com. He writes the weekly New Geographer column for Forbes. His latest book,The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, was published in February 2010 by Penguin Press.
He won't be sued by Lee Kuan Yew.
Originally posted by Vote PAP OUT to Save SG:
This ranking just refer to total land area,ie gross land,HK has plenty of mountains and lot of lands still in private hands,while now, SG gov own 90 % of all SG lands!
(Pl read Men in white)
A more meaningful comparsions would be build up areas.
built up areas n population
re Note 1--Table1. Comparison Between the
Built Up Area and
population of 15 cities
City..Population..Built-up area ....Population
density.££......Area per pax ,m2
.
HK ..(1986)..5,400,000.......147.km2........361 People/ha££.............28..note1
SG (1980)..2,035,000......189 km2.........107 People/ha................93..note 1
HK..2008....6,980,000.....261 km2...........260 People/ha)............note 2
SG (1997)..3,740,000.....322 km2............116.People/ha................note 3
1 km2=100 ha, 1 ha= 100 m x 100 meter
££ on Built-up area
note1--http://alain-bertaud.com/images/HK_outline4.pdf
note 2--http://www.yearbook.gov.hk/2008/en/pdf/E-Appendix.pdf, Table 30
.......(incl cemetry etc)
note 3--Singapore Facts and figures 1998 by Ministry of info and Arts. page 1.
.....citizens and PR added up to 3.10 million,(so called Resident popultion)
Density of Singapore HDB is only 20 % of Hong kong public housing!
ie 417 persons per ha v 2,062 persons per ha!
A. Density in HK Residential areas
Private Residential 3.6 million 2,500 ha ,ie
1,440 persons
per ha (note 1 and 2 )
Public Residential 3.3 million 1,600 ha,
Includes
HOS/PSPS ($$ see below )and temporary housing
area.ie
2,062 persons per
ha
Rural Settlement 3,400 ha Includes village
housing and temporary
structures
Private Residential=Residential land
developed by private
developers (except village houses, HOS/PSPS
and temporary housing area).
$$ HOS= public housing for sale, like SG HDB ,in HK, majority of public housing is for rental .
PSPS=like SG DBSS HDB
B .Singapore is much better
pop. on HDB estates(HDB flats only) 3,020,000 / 7,232 ha= 417 persons per ha!
pl note there are private estates in HDB estates.note 3.
1. pop, in different category of housing
http://www.yearbook.gov.hk/2008/en/pdf/E-Appendix.pdf
Table 29
2.http://www.yearbook.gov.hk/2008/en/pdf/E-Appendix.pdf
Table 30.Land Usage Distribution (as at end-2008)
3. sg HDB density
http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10221p.nsf/0/d4a0f107613b79944825766200236310/$file/Key%20Statistics.pdf
page 8 and 9
density, public housing density, HK housing,
the above originally appeared in
http://politics.sgforums.com/forums/10/topics/403808?page=1
Originally posted by lionnoisy:
(Pl read Men in white)
quite a disgusting book, first part is okay, second half degenerates into PAP self praise and shameless propaganda.