Is the outlook for Sg really that rosy?
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I think the MIW must be having election nightmares of desperation. Economy recovery? I think they are desperate for the status quo of benign stability to hold between now and September. Europe is still wobbly. The financial rescue of Greece merely stalled a sudden collapse right on its edge. Anyone read a Spanish bank collapse last week – long after the 2008/2009. What does that mean? The smouldering flame of meltdown has NOT been extinguished yet and this is not just in EU as also reported a regional California bank collapsed in the same week. What does these tell me? THE SLOW DECAYING DEATH HAS NOT ENDED.
A lot of banks and business are still in the dying throes, many surviving till today because of the stimulus life support which cannot continues indefinitely. As these life support increasingly weans off, the financial collapse might escalate and Europe might implode again. The budgetary and fiscal indiscipline CONTINUES TO WREAK HAVOUC. Within euro currency jurisdiction, only Germany and to some extent France is stable BUT ALL THE PIIGS ( Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) are still deeply mired in national debt way exceeding their GDP – in practical terms – financially bankrupt and struggling with fiscal budget to service borrowing costs and keeps the economic fire smouldering. Spain’s economic problems are BIGGER than Greece simply by reasons of its economic base is much larger. Germany is like one breadwinner supporting the rest of euro currency economies – PIIGS and Eastern European economies all underwater. Britain, though not part of Euro currency, could barely survive its own. PRC of course said it support the euro – it was a political and economic imperative. Any disintegration of euro will decimated the Chinese manufacturing sector as EU is a major export market for Chinese made goods. But if Spain wobbles followed by Portugal and Italy, the risks is that German voters will force Merkel to walk out and abandon the euro currency regime. TOO COSTLY FOR GERMANY AND TOO FEW BENEFITS.
Euro currency, I believe, was born out of political imperatives than economics. Why? Because its diverse membership had different economic maturity of industrialisation and decay and also difference of reliance on specific economic sector. One currency fitting all imposed too much constraints. Greece has no manufacturing of any significance and mostly dependent on tourism. Portugal is mainly agricultural. Italy’s industrial base is eroded and a cheaper euro does not benefit its export market but beneficial to Greek tourism. The stretch and strain are too much to bear of diversity. It could break and all hell break lose. European central banker has warned of a second wave of loan losses spreading through PIIGS countries.
The next few months could be very critical if the US recovery does not take hold to give some support to global demand. EU is Asean major market and Singapore component of that trade-dependency is almost 1/3 of Asean exposure. Any violent shakedown of EU in the next three months will have major impact on our economy and negative impact on PAP’s electoral fortune.
As for the US economy, pending home sales though registering increase in recent months and better than expected in April BUT THE RATE OF INCREASED HAS DECLINED.Pending home sales was 6% in April compared to gains of 7.1 percent in March and 8.3 percent in February.
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/afp/20100602/tts-us-economy-property-sales-c1b2fc3.html
That indicated softness. Improved US economic data for housing is due exclusively to financial incentives in the Obama Admininistration stimulus package which has ended in April – all contract must be completed by end June. Car sales were also up BUT THIS IS ALSO DUE TO CASH FOR CLUNKER DEAL from the stimulus package. The critical figures are what the May and June statistic to come in on major consumer ticket items like cars and housing to really assess the strength of US recovery.
Over in China, manufacturing output has fallen due to tightening monetary policy at work.
The result of slower manufacturing output has negative impact on commodities demand.
This is yet another bearish signal.
The collapse in the commodity index is telling us that the peak in global industrial growth is imminent, it’s here right now. One market commentator warned. “Markets are going to have to deal with the reality of a slowdown.”
We are seeing now the biggest slump in commodities since Lehman Brothers Holdings collapsed is undermining Wall Street forecasts for accelerating economic growth and higher prices for everything from copper to crude oil.
The biggest danger yet is burst property bubble in China. THIS ONE IS SAID TO BE BIGGER AND WORST THAN THAT EXPERIENCE IN USA. At minimum it won’t be much smaller of impact if it burst. PRC speculators are buying 2nd and 3rd property for speculation on pyramid mortgaging and the Government is well aware of this trend.
http://edition.cnn.com/2010/BUSINESS/05/31/china.property.worse.us.ft/index.html
The Aussie currency had a meltdown last month – another bearish signal. If raw material demand falls, it signals a downturn in manufacturing and construction. Manufacturing is meeting consumer demand which must be weakening. Construction is mainly urbanisation and infrastructural and if that slows down it also means a slackening in consumer demand and public spending – again economic slow-down is near the horizon or already in the works.
THE REASON WHY FINANCIAL MARKETS ARE SO GLOOMY IS BECAUSE EVERYONE REALISES THAT ALL EUROPEAN AND US GOVERNMENT WERE ALREADY IN BUDGET AND FISCAL NEGATIVE IMBALANCE BEFORE THE GFC AND THAT IMBALANCE HAS WORSEN SINCE 2008/2009 because private sector debt had been temporary warehoused in the Government’s sector. THAT MEANS THAT GOVERNMENT SECTOR IS NOW LESS AND LESS ABLE TO ENGAGE IN STIMULUS SPENDING WHEN THE NEXT CRASH COMES. AND THAT COULD BE ON THE HORIZON.
Copper – used in all construction – is down on demand and so is oil.
I believe the MIW knows the dark clouds are gathering very fast on the horizon. THEY ARE DESPERATE TO HOLD THE ELECTION POST THE YOUTH OLYMPIC BEFORE THE NEXT CRASH COMES.
THAT IS WHY WE SEE
- restoration of pay and bonus for civil servant – double barrel and extended over time months for reminder impact from June to July
- GST credit in july
- restructuring hot sensitive TH’s top management structure to look good that something serious is being done to improve its performance and strategic direction etc in August.
- all the good news vibes to hide all the negatives
- sudden die-off of talk on migration influx and housing inflation.
THE SIGNS ARE NOT GOOD FOR SINGAPOREANS AHEAD.
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That is why elections ned to be held soon.
Before the global economy suffers from another painful recession.
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only Singapore government is Rosy....ha ha ha
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Me no understand.. buts it loooks persuasive enough.
lol
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that's why, you need to invest now, especially on asia or singapore stock, as usual before every election, our govt will bump up the stock market high to satisfy the elites and investors, but make sure you able to sell it off fast after the election, if not, god and Angel bless you.
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Originally posted by BadzMaro:
Me no understand.. buts it loooks persuasive enough.
lol
yr under cannot stand, then sit down and diam diam -
citibank just sent me an email saying they have made unprecedented profits in their history this year lol
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well, not surprising, they just robbed our Govt last year.
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Originally posted by angel7030:
yr under cannot stand, then sit down and diam diam
Thats why I already diam diam ma. Can only post 2 sentences. I dont know the subject matter well to even comment on it critically. So I shut the f up and sit the f down liaw. -
...haiz, even you diam diam, also makes me laugh...
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Originally posted by Rock^Star:
citibank just sent me an email saying they have made unprecedented profits in their history this year lol
they borrow cheap money and in return they lend it internationally....to yield a higher return. -
Originally posted by Arapahoe:
they borrow cheap money and in return they lend it internationally....to yield a higher return.
they used GIC and temasek funds by conning the management there, which in a way, with the peoples management GIC and Temasek, it is the most easiest to conn. -
Originally posted by angel7030:
they used GIC and temasek funds by conning the management there, which in a way, with the peoples management GIC and Temasek, it is the most easiest to conn.
you funny.....one moment for pap
another against pap
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Good or no good doesnt matter to the ordinary folks like me.
What matter most is whether you are working and salaried paid or not.
Jobs jobs and jobs....the most impt factor now.
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I think even low level, low waged jobs are getting harder to come by.
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with current leadship....at least Sporean are more comforable with thier future then thier nieghbours.
despite GIC/temasek loose only some B..... don1t forget they has earn few hundred B. GIC may have lose some in BOA but they earn few B on citicorp.
In business, there is no sure 100% earn business. Important at the end of the day, other business earn more than enought to cover the small losts in other small non profitable investments.
At least GIC practice tranparency. Unlike our neighbour have a good mine in Oil Field...but has been using this mindlessly to build Tween Pick Towel , XXX dam, Pejawa steel has lose them few B, MSC etc etc..... All big tickets investment and all lose big $ but thier gahmen chose to keep quiet as thier citizens does not care
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Originally posted by likeyou:
Good or no good doesnt matter to the ordinary folks like me.
What matter most is whether you are working and salaried paid or not.
Jobs jobs and jobs....the most impt factor now.
that is a big mistake..and fall directly into your govt trap...because the PAP govt controlled the country like an enterprise, a money churning organisation and a profit centre, the ordinary folks like you will alway have to look or secure a jobs just to work for them forever thru the way your paid the tax and bills...you should think like them, be an entrepreneur, because as an entrepreneur, they respect you better. -
Originally posted by charlize:
I think even low level, low waged jobs are getting harder to come by.
There are low wages, i dun deny that...but if you tell me there are low level, i think you better think twice..today..cleaner is renamed as Estate Officer
Gardener is renamed as Horticutural Specialist
Plates and cups collectors are called as Food hygience Tech
Even my gals after going thru e2i are now called Pro Public relationship services
and so on....all thanks to NTUC for such wonderful names and titles
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exchange_reserves
Singapore rank quite high in Foreign reserves. This data was from a 3rd party who do not have direct interest in Spore
Rank 
Country Billion USD (end of month) 1 
People's Republic of China (China)[note 1]$ 2447,1 (March 2010)[1] 2 
Japan$ 1019 (Jun 2009)[2] 
Eurozone$ 716 (Oct 2009) 3 
Russia[note 2]$ 456 (Apr 2010)[3] 4 
Republic of China (Taiwan)$ 357.56 (Apr 2010) [4] 5 
India [note 2]$ 277.0 (Mar 26, 2010)[5] 6 
South Korea$ 270.9 (Nov 2009)[6][7] 7 
Brazil[note 3]$ 250.3 (Jun 2010)[8] 8 
Hong Kong$ 240 (Nov 2009) 9 
Singapore$ 203.4(May 2010) 10 
Germany$ 184 (Sep 2009) Rank Country Billion USD (end of month) 1 People's Republic of China (China)[note 1]$ 2447,1 (March 2010)[1] 2 Japan$ 1019 (Jun 2009)[2] Eurozone$ 716 (Oct 2009) 3 Russia[note 2]$ 456 (Apr 2010)[3] 4 Republic of China (Taiwan)$ 357.56 (Apr 2010) [4] 5 India [note 2]$ 277.0 (Mar 26, 2010)[5] 6 South Korea$ 270.9 (Nov 2009)[6][7] 7 Brazil[note 3]$ 250.3 (Jun 2010)[8] 8 Hong Kong$ 240 (Nov 2009) 9 Singapore$ 203.4(May 2010) 10 Germany$ 184 (Sep 2009) -
World Peace.