Is the outlook for Singapore really that rosy?
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Is the outlook for Singapore really that rosy?
TEMASEK REVIEW
I think the MIW must be having election nightmares of desperation. Economy recovery? I think they are desperate for the status quo of benign stability to hold between now and September. Europe is still wobbly. The financial rescue of Greece merely stalled a sudden collapse right on its edge. Anyone read a Spanish bank collapse last week – long after the 2008/2009. What does that mean? The smouldering flame of meltdown has NOT been extinguished yet and this is not just in EU as also reported a regional California bank collapsed in the same week. What does these tell me? THE SLOW DECAYING DEATH HAS NOT ENDED.
A lot of banks and business are still in the dying throes, many surviving till today because of the stimulus life support which cannot continues indefinitely. As these life support increasingly weans off, the financial collapse might escalate and Europe might implode again. The budgetary and fiscal indiscipline CONTINUES TO WREAK HAVOUC. Within euro currency jurisdiction, only Germany and to some extent France is stable BUT ALL THE PIIGS ( Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) are still deeply mired in national debt way exceeding their GDP – in practical terms – financially bankrupt and struggling with fiscal budget to service borrowing costs and keeps the economic fire smouldering. Spain’s economic problems are BIGGER than Greece simply by reasons of its economic base is much larger. Germany is like one breadwinner supporting the rest of euro currency economies – PIIGS and Eastern European economies all underwater. Britain, though not part of Euro currency, could barely survive its own. PRC of course said it support the euro – it was a political and economic imperative. Any disintegration of euro will decimated the Chinese manufacturing sector as EU is a major export market for Chinese made goods. But if Spain wobbles followed by Portugal and Italy, the risks is that German voters will force Merkel to walk out and abandon the euro currency regime. TOO COSTLY FOR GERMANY AND TOO FEW BENEFITS.Euro currency, I believe, was born out of political imperatives than economics. Why? Because its diverse membership had different economic maturity of industrialisation and decay and also difference of reliance on specific economic sector. One currency fitting all imposed too much constraints. Greece has no manufacturing of any significance and mostly dependent on tourism. Portugal is mainly agricultural. Italy’s industrial base is eroded and a cheaper euro does not benefit its export market but beneficial to Greek tourism. The stretch and strain are too much to bear of diversity. It could break and all hell break lose. European central banker has warned of a second wave of loan losses spreading through PIIGS countries.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/industry-sectors/euro-zone-banks-face-a-second-wave-of-loan-losses-warns-the-ecb/story-e6frg96f-1225873858977
The next few months could be very critical if the US recovery does not take hold to give some support to global demand. EU is Asean major market and Singapore component of that trade-dependency is almost 1/3 of Asean exposure. Any violent shakedown of EU in the next three months will have major impact on our economy and negative impact on PAP’s electoral fortune.
As for the US economy, pending home sales though registering increase in recent months and better than expected in April BUT THE RATE OF INCREASED HAS DECLINED.Pending home sales was 6% in April compared to gains of 7.1 percent in March and 8.3 percent in February.
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/afp/20100602/tts-us-economy-property-sales-c1b2fc3.html
That indicated softness. Improved US economic data for housing is due exclusively to financial incentives in the Obama Admininistration stimulus package which has ended in April – all contract must be completed by end June. Car sales were also up BUT THIS IS ALSO DUE TO CASH FOR CLUNKER DEAL from the stimulus package. The critical figures are what the May and June statistic to come in on major consumer ticket items like cars and housing to really assess the strength of US recovery.
Over in China, manufacturing output has fallen due to tightening monetary policy at work.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/chinas-manufacturing-growth-slows-official-report/story-e6frg926-1225873953545
The result of slower manufacturing output has negative impact on commodities demand.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/news/china-taps-commodities-stockpile-in-bearish-signal/story-e6frg90x-1225873940964
This is yet another bearish signal.
The collapse in the commodity index is telling us that the peak in global industrial growth is imminent, it’s here right now. One market commentator warned. “Markets are going to have to deal with the reality of a slowdown.”
We are seeing now the biggest slump in commodities since Lehman Brothers Holdings collapsed is undermining Wall Street forecasts for accelerating economic growth and higher prices for everything from copper to crude oil.
http://www.theage.com.au/business/world-business/bear-signals-commodities-mark-biggest-drop-since-lehman-20100602-wvti.html
The biggest danger yet is burst property bubble in China. THIS ONE IS SAID TO BE BIGGER AND WORST THAN THAT EXPERIENCE IN USA. At minimum it won’t be much smaller of impact if it burst. PRC speculators are buying 2nd and 3rd property for speculation on pyramid mortgaging and the Government is well aware of this trend.
http://edition.cnn.com/2010/BUSINESS/05/31/china.property.worse.us.ft/index.html
The Aussie currency had a meltdown last month – another bearish signal. If raw material demand falls, it signals a downturn in manufacturing and construction. Manufacturing is meeting consumer demand which must be weakening. Construction is mainly urbanisation and infrastructural and if that slows down it also means a slackening in consumer demand and public spending – again economic slow-down is near the horizon or already in the works.
THE REASON WHY FINANCIAL MARKETS ARE SO GLOOMY IS BECAUSE EVERYONE REALISES THAT ALL EUROPEAN AND US GOVERNMENT WERE ALREADY IN BUDGET AND FISCAL NEGATIVE IMBALANCE BEFORE THE GFC AND THAT IMBALANCE HAS WORSEN SINCE 2008/2009 because private sector debt had been temporary warehoused in the Government’s sector. THAT MEANS THAT GOVERNMENT SECTOR IS NOW LESS AND LESS ABLE TO ENGAGE IN STIMULUS SPENDING WHEN THE NEXT CRASH COMES. AND THAT COULD BE ON THE HORIZON.
Copper – used in all construction – is down on demand and so is oil.
I believe the MIW knows the dark clouds are gathering very fast on the horizon. THEY ARE DESPERATE TO HOLD THE ELECTION POST THE YOUTH OLYMPIC BEFORE THE NEXT CRASH COMES.
THAT IS WHY WE SEE
- restoration of pay and bonus for civil servant – double barrel and extended over time months for reminder impact from June to July
- GST credit in july
- restructuring hot sensitive TH’s top management structure to look good that something serious is being done to improve its performance and strategic direction etc in August.
- all the good news vibes to hide all the negatives
- sudden die-off of talk on migration influx and housing inflation.
THE SIGNS ARE NOT GOOD FOR SINGAPOREANS AHEAD. THE MIW IS PANICKING.
ANYONE DISAGREEING???
Jane Doe
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Who the heck is Jane Doe?
Does Spore has a budget deficit like Greece?
Does Spore has a welfare/social programme for its citizens?
Does Spore overspend its expenditure more than it receive its income?
Does Spore owed money/debt to anyone?
How much exposure do Spore banks have in Europe, esp the PIIGS country and if so, what is the percentage?
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duality of nature is a universal law - there are always 2 sides to anything. Just as something is rosy, so will there be a shitty side. It all just depends on which side we are.................
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Originally posted by Fenixx:
duality of nature is a universal law – there are always 2 sides to anything.
Just as something is rosy, so will there be a shitty side.
It all just depends on which side we are…..............
not god creations meh?
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Originally posted by Rooney9:
Who the heck is Jane Doe?
Does Spore has a budget deficit like Greece?
Does Spore has a welfare/social programme for its citizens?
Does Spore overspend its expenditure more than it receive its income?
Does Spore owed money/debt to anyone?
How much exposure do Spore banks have in Europe, esp the PIIGS country and if so, what is the percentage?
God?? are u so sure there is a God?Answer:
1. currently there is no jane doe in singapore but we got JCO donuts
2.no singapore do not have budget deficit due to the ever smart massaged figures in the budget account and high taxation.
3. yes, singapore do have a welfare funds, the employers CPF contribution, but unlike other countries, you cannot touch it.
4. Since Singapore are paying themselve more than paying out, certainly the income will be more than the expenditure
5. Yes, Singapore owe it own people alots, one of them is CPF and other assets etc etc
6. And as a dynamic global economy, Singapore are subjected to expose itself to the global market conditions, the prime crisis in USA had already shown to you our exposure is beyong our imagination, with the likes of people sitting on top of temasek and GIC, you should know better.
As an economist cum financial advisor, let me just caution you on one thing that may sink Singapore internally, let say if today, all peoples of Singapore decided to cash out their CPF once and for all...CPF Pte Ltd will become another lethman or lemon case. Just imagine.
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Originally posted by angel7030:
God?? are u so sure there is a God?Answer:
1. currently there is no jane doe in singapore but we got JCO donuts
2.no singapore do not have budget deficit due to the ever smart massaged figures in the budget account and high taxation.
3. yes, singapore do have a welfare funds, the employers CPF contribution, but unlike other countries, you cannot touch it.
4. Since Singapore are paying themselve more than paying out, certainly the income will be more than the expenditure
5. Yes, Singapore owe it own people alots, one of them is CPF and other assets etc etc
6. And as a dynamic global economy, Singapore are subjected to expose itself to the global market conditions, the prime crisis in USA had already shown to you our exposure is beyong our imagination, with the likes of people sitting on top of temasek and GIC, you should know better.
As an economist cum financial advisor, let me just caution you on one thing that may sink Singapore internally, let say if today, all peoples of Singapore decided to cash out their CPF once and for all...CPF Pte Ltd will become another lethman or lemon case. Just imagine.
suddenly you became economist -
Angel ish multi-talented multi-tasker.....!
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Originally posted by Fenixx:
Angel ish multi-talented multi-tasker…..!
sex not included ya -
Originally posted by angel7030:
sex not included ya
BACK TO THE RIGHT TRACK, DERAIL NOT ALOOWED! -
Originally posted by CheckmateA1:
suddenly you became economist
absolutely, opposition should use it, if every one of us is to go to CPF and said, i want to withdraw all my CPF out and cancel my citizenship here, i think CPF go bust, they will not have enuf to provide that liability...but govt taking that singaporeans will not be ever going to do that,....it put is on accured liabilities -
Originally posted by CheckmateA1:
BACK TO THE RIGHT TRACK, DERAIL NOT ALOOWED!
i am just wanting to clarify myself, cos he said i am multi tasking...and if i dun clarify it, later peoples like you will come and disturb me again thru Public or PM. UNDERSTAND! -
It is and has never been rosy since the last 10 years.It's just painted to look rosy ,you know by whom.
Anyways I just hope everything gets destroyed economically to end the selfish and greedy.
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Originally posted by angel7030:
sex not included yaI love to go to your pub to sing and drink with you
