Anna Kitanaka and Clyde Russell
Bloomberg
Tokyo, Japan
Monday, 11 January 2010, 1:41 pm JT
Asian stocks rose and commodities gained after China’s exports surged in December and imports rose to a record, signs the global economic recovery is accelerating.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index excluding Japan Index climbed 1.6% to 434.23 as of 1:40 p.m. in Tokyo, led by commodity producers. Oil advanced to a 15-month high, gold jumped 1.8% to $1,158.40 an ounce, the most in a month, and copper for 3-month delivery on the London Metal Exchange rose as much as 2.9% to $7,675 a metric ton.
China, the engine of recovery from the world’s worst recession since World War II, yesterday said exports climbed 17.7% from a year earlier, the first increase in 14 months, and imports surged 55.9%. The U.S. economy may show further signs of recovery this week with retail sales expected to rise 0.5% in December, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 57 economists, easing concerns caused by the loss of 85,000 jobs the same month.
“The whole recovery story is unfolding very well,” said Nader Naeimi, a Sydney-based strategist at AMP Capital Investors, which oversees about $75 billion. “China is on track and the fact that export numbers are very strong shows external demand from the developed world is gaining traction as well.”
The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index gained for the 13th day in 14. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.8%, while South Korea’s Kospi Index added 0.5%. China’s Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.4%, led by brokerages and banks after the government approved the use of stock index futures, fanning speculation the new derivative will boost trading volumes. Japanese markets are closed today for a holiday.
S&P Futures Gain
Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.4%. The gauge rose 0.3% to a 15-month high on Jan. 8 as speculation the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates near zero overshadowed the unexpected decline in jobs.
Material producers accounted for 35% of the MSCI index’s advance today on optimism growth in China, the world’s third-largest economy, will stimulate demand for metals.
BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, gained 1.9% to A$44.43. Newcrest Mining Ltd., Australia’s largest gold producer, climbed 1.8% to A$36.82.
Posco, South Korea’s largest steelmaker, climbed 3.1% to 625,000 won. Hyundai Securities Co. raised its share- price estimate to 750,000 won, citing an improvement in the global steel industry.
Copper advanced for the first day in three, before trading at $7,642 in Asia. Copper imports by China climbed for a 2nd month, extending a rebound from a 9-month low.
Gold Appetite
Gold rose on speculation a slumping dollar will increase investor appetite for the metal as an alternative asset. It traded at $1,152.82 in Asia.
Crude oil rose for a second day, with the contract for February delivery gaining as much as 92 cents, or 1.1%, to $83.67 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $83.46 in Asia trading.
Oil climbed 4.3% last week and gained in 11 of the past 12 sessions as freezing temperatures in Europe and North America boosted heating demand. Heating oil rose as much as 1.1% to $2.2239 a gallon on Nymex, the highest level since Oct. 14, 2008.
Aussie 1-Month High
The Australian dollar climbed to a 1-month high and South Korea’s won rose for a 7th day, its longest winning streak in 3 months.
The Australian dollar climbed 0.6% from Asian trading on Jan. 8 to 93.05 U.S. cents, the New Zealand dollar strengthened 1% to 73.88 U.S. cents and the South Korean won gained 0.8% to 1,121.2.
Yuan forwards jumped to the highest in eight weeks with 12-month non-deliverable yuan contracts advancing 0.5% to 6.5920 per dollar on speculation China will allow its currency to strengthen. China has effectively pegged the yuan at about 6.83 per dollar since July 2008 to help exporters weather a slump in demand triggered by the global financial crisis.
“It does underscore the continued improvement in global export demand,” said David Cohen, director of Asian forecasting at Action Economics in Singapore. “Perhaps Beijing will be more into tolerating renewed appreciation.”
The dollar fell to a 3-week low against the euro and slid to the weakest since October versus its Canadian counterpart as the signs Asian growth is gaining pace boosted demand for higher-yielding and commodity currencies.
China Beats Germany
China overtook Germany as the world’s No. 1 exporter of goods in 2009 even as the Asian nation reported yesterday its first annual decline in shipments in more than 25 years. China’s central bank last week guided three-month bill yields higher for the first time since August, suggesting that the government wants to rein in liquidity to limit the risks of real-estate bubbles and resurgent inflation.
U.S. Treasury futures declined, signaling cash bonds are likely to weaken when trading opens later today.
2-year Treasury yields fell to the lowest level in 2 weeks on Jan. 8, and longer-maturity yields rose, after a U.S. payrolls report showed the economy unexpectedly lost jobs in December, boosting the prospects that the Federal Reserve will wait longer to remove its stimulus measures and raise interest rates. The Federal Funds Implied Probability shows a 34% chance that rates will remain unchanged up to the Aug. 10 meeting, up from 14% a week ago.
The so-called yield curve, or the difference between 2- and 10-year rates, steepened to 2.85% from 2.75% a week ago. It reached a record 2.88% on Dec. 22.
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