India, China and US ambitions in Myanmar
-
China's Ambitions in Myanmar
India steps up countermoves
WHILE MYANMAR remains shunned by the West, the country's two giant neighbours, India and China, are jockeying for influence in Yangon. Since the beginning of the year, India's army chief General Ved Prakash Malik has made two trips to Myanmar and his Burmese counterpart General Maung Aye has visited both India and China. These top-level exchanges have highlighted Myanmar's importance in the strategic competition between Beijing and New Delhi.
China enjoys a considerable head start in the race to woo Yangon's military leaders. Since 1988, Myanmar has become China's closest ally in South-east Asia, a major recipient of Chinese military hardware and a potential springboard for projecting Chinese military power in the region. During Maung Aye's trip to Beijing in June to mark 50 years of diplomatic ties, his host, Chinese Vice-President Hu Jintao, noted that strengthening Sino-Myanmarese relations was 'an important part of China's diplomacy concerning its surrounding areas'.
The (china-Myanmar) alliance has alarmed India, which in recent years has shifted its strategy away from supporting Myanmar's opposition movement towards cementing ties with the junta. New Delhi has offered Myanmar favourable trade relations and cooperation against ethnic insurgents along the Indo-Myanmarese frontier. India also appears to be exploiting a rift between Maung Aye and the head of Myanmar's powerful military intelligence service, Lieutenant-General Khin Nyunt, viewed as far more pro-Chinese than the army chief. New Delhi has engaged in a charm offensive to encourage Maung Aye to take a more independent foreign-policy stance.
Intelligence analysts say that China's economic political and military influence in the country has already become so strong that it would be hard for Yangon radically to reorient its foreign policy But the demise of Myanmar's elder generation of military leaders could present opportunities for India to woo Myanmar away from China.
Beijing and Yangon
Myanmar emerged as a key Chinese ally on 6 August 1988, when the two countries signed an agreement establishing official trade across the common border hitherto - isolated Myanmar's first such agreement with a neighbour. Significantly, the signing took place while Myanmar was in turmoil. Two days later, millions of people across the country took to the streets to demand an end to army rule and a restoration of the democracy the country enjoyed prior to the first military coup in 1962.
China was eager to find a trading outlet to the Indian Ocean for its landlocked inland provinces of Yunnan and Sichuan, via Myanmar. The Myanmarese rail-heads of Myitkyina and Lashio in north-eastern Myanmar, as well as the Irrawaddy River, were potential conduits. But the relevant border areas were at the time controlled by the insurgent Communist Party of Burma (CPB), which China had previously supported.
The CPB's grip weakened in 1989, when the party's hilltribe rank and file mutinied against the ageing, Maoist and mainly Myanmarese party leadership. Subsequently, the CPB split along ethnic lines into four regional armies all of which then signed cease-fire agreements with the government. By 1990, trade between the two countries was flourishing and Myanmar had become China's principal political and military ally in South-east Asia. China poured arms into Myanmar to shore up the military government.
Myanmar's strategic significance
The isolation and condemnation experienced by both countries in the wake of the Yangon massacre of 1988 and the violent suppression of the Tiananmen Square protests the following year helped to draw them closer together. But China's calculations were also strategic. Close to the key shipping lanes of the Indian Ocean and South-east Asia, Myanmar could help China to extend its military reach into a region of vital importance to Asian economies The bulk of Japan's Middle East oil imports, for example, pass through the area. China also wanted to check India's growing strategic influence.
By late 1991, Chinese experts were helping to upgrade Myanmar's infrastructure, including its badly maintained roads and railways. Chinese military advisers also arrived that year, the first foreign military personnel to be stationed in Myanmar since the 1950s. Myanmar was becoming a de facto Chinese client state. Ironically, shrewd diplomacy and flourishing bilateral trade had accomplished for China what the insurgent CPB had failed to achieve.
One of China's motives for arming Myanmar was to help safeguard the new trade routes through its potentially volatile neighbour. Intelligence sources estimate the total value of Chinese arms deliveries to Myanmar in the 1990s at $1.2 billion, with most of them acquired at a discount or through barter deals or interest-free loans. Military hardware delivered by China included:
- 100 Type 6911 medium battle tanks and more than 100 Type 63 light tanks (of which only around 60 are thought to be serviceable);
- 250 Type 85 armoured personnel carriers, multiple-launch rocket systems, howitzers, anti-aircraft guns, HN-5 surface-to-air missiles, mortars, assault rifles, recoilless guns, rocket-propelled grenade launchers and heavy trucks;
- Chengdu F-7M Airguard jet fighters, FT-7 jet trainers, A-5M ground-attack aircraft and SAC Y-81) transport aircraft; and
- Hainan-class patrol boats, Houxin-class guided-missile fast-attack craft, minesweepers and small gunboats.
In the past year, China has also delivered 12 Karakoram-8 trainers and 1 ground-attack aircraft, which are produced in a joint venture with Pakistan. The latest batch arrived in January.
India's concerns
India has been particularly concerned by Chinese support for the upgrading of Myanmar's naval facilities. These include at least four electronic listening posts along the Bay of Bengal and in the Andaman Sea: Man-aung, Hainggyi, Zadetkyi island and the strategically important Coco Islands just north of India's Andaman Islands. Chinese technicians have been spotted at the naval bases at Monkey Point, near Yangon, and Kyaikkami, south of the port city of Moulmein. There is also a Chinese-built radar station on Saganthit island near Mergui in south-eastern Myanmar.
Although China's presence in the Bay of Bengal is currently limited to instructors and technicians, the new radar equipment is Chinese-made and probably operated, at least in part, by Chinese technicians, enabling Beijing's intelligence agencies to monitor this sensitive maritime region.
China and Myanmar have pledged to share intelligence of potential use to both countries.
In May 1998, the outspoken Indian defence minister, George Fernandes, caused uproar by accusing Beijing of helping Myanmar to install surveillance and communications equipment on the Coco Islands. Myanmar and China denied the accusations, but New Delhi's concerns were well founded. In August 1993, Indian coastguards caught three boats 'fishing' close to the Andamans, where last year the Indian navy established a new Far Eastern Naval Command in a move viewed as an attempt to counter Chinese influence in Myanmar. The trawlers were flying Myamarese flags, but the crew of 55 was Chinese. There was no fishing equipment on board - only radio-communication and depth-sounding equipment. The Chinese embassy in New Delhi intervened and the crew was released. At the time, the incident was discreetly buried in the Defence Ministry's files in New Delhi. But when China's designs became obvious, the more hawkish government that came to power in India in 1996 began to pay closer attention to developments in Sino-Myanmarese relations.
New Delhi's counter-strategy
At first, India had tried to counter China's influence in Myanmar by supporting the country's pro-democracy forces. But around 1993, India began to re-evaluate this strategy, concerned that it had only served to push Yangon closer to Beijing. According to a senior Indian official, Myanmarese generals signalled to New Delhi that it should take a greater interest in development work to reduce Yangon's heavy dependence on China.
During his two-day visit to Myanmar in January this year, Malik discussed plans for curbing insurgent groups based in Myanmar that have been active in northeastern India. Maung Aye then went to the north-eastern Indian town of Shillong - an unusual visit by a foreign leader to a provincial capital - where he held talks with senior officials from the Indian trade, energy, defence, home and foreign-affairs ministries. After this exchange, India began to provide military support equipment to Myanmar. Most of the uniforms used by Myanmarese troops along the common border now come from India. New Delhi is also reported to have leased helicopters to the country's army. Malik paid a follow-up visit to Yangon in July.
The success of India's new strategy appears to have been reflected in the outcome of Maung Aye's trip to China in June. The trip was partly aimed at finalising plans for a trade route between China and Myanmar. Intelligence sources in Myanmar say that the idea was to use a fleet of barges to transport goods from Bhamo on the Irrawaddy river, close to the Chinese border, to Minhla, some 1,000 kilometres down-river. From Minhla, a road is being built across the Arakan Yoma mountain range, running via An to Kyaukpyu on the coast. Kyaukpyu has been chosen as the site for a new deepwater port.
But it now seems certain that although Maung Aye agreed to strengthen trade relations, he did not permit the degree of Chinese access to the trade route for which Beijing had hoped. Details of the agreement reached in Beijing remain sketchy During Maung Aye's earlier talks with Malik, however, India urged caution and it appears that Maung Aye paid heed.
Myanmar's military government is caught in a dilemma. When no other country was prepared to support or trade with Yangon, it had to accept Chinese aid. But what began as a modest trade agreement has developed into heavy political and military dependence. Moreover, tens of thousands of illegal Chinese immigrants have moved across the border over the past ten years and taken over local businesses in northern Myanmar, causing friction with the local population. Some communal clashes have already taken place between immigrants and local tribesmen in the area. Maung Aye, a staunch Myanmarese nationalist, is said to be more concerned about these demographic changes than defence and trade agreements with China.
Major political changes in Myanmar are unlikely as long as the country's two most important leaders are still alive. Ageing strongman Ne Win, who established army rule in Yangon in 1962, is Still regarded as the 'Godfather' of the Burmese military establishment. General Than Shwe, 67, is the present chairman of the junta. But Ne Win turned 89 in May, and Than Shwe's health is deteriorating rapidly. In May this year, Than Shwe wrote a letter to the junta recommending his own retirement.
Without Ne Win pulling strings from behind the scenes, and with Than Shwe no longer junta chairman, observers believe that the rivalry between Maung Aye and the intelligence-service chief, Khin Nyunt, could turn into an open power struggle. Given their opposing opinions on foreign policy, the outcome of that struggle could also determine Myanmar's place in the context of broader regional security.
-
India lays out a red carpet for Myanmar
NEW DELHI - India has come to realize that the main beneficiary of strained India-Myanmar relations will be China, whether for access to all-important hydrocarbon energy sources, transport corridors or strategic control of the maritime waters of the Indian Ocean.India has thus accorded prime importance this week to the visit of the second-most important person of Myanmar's ruling military junta, General Maung Aye. Apart from China and a few East Asian nations, it is unlikely that any other country would extend the kind of red carpet welcome laid out for Aye by New Delhi.
Aye has had audiences with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Vice President Hamid Ansari, Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee and the top brass of the defense forces. Bringing to fruition a series of meetings between Indian and Myanmar officials, Aye and Ansari inked a major transport agreement that will link a crucially located Myanmar port with a remote and underdeveloped part of northeastern India.
The US$130 million project permits India to develop Myanmar's Sittwe port on the Kaladan River - a project that could turn into an important international trade hub - and possible military logistical base - for the land-locked northeast.
Prior to this, trade has only been possible via a longer and circuitous route through West Bengal by way of an already overcrowded Siliguri corridor, also known as "the chicken's neck".
The new road and river link will bypass Bangladesh, which has denied access to Indian trade via Chittagong port due to domestic political opposition."India, which is one of the largest importers of pulses will be able to get them directly from Myanmar instead of via Singapore," said Minister of Commerce Jairam Ramesh.
The route will also provide India an access point to Sittwe, a city located just off the Kaladan River that is being developed as an onshore hub for Myanmar's gas once the vast reserves in the Shwe fields in the Bay of Bengal are depleted.
India and China are competing over the massive Shwe natural gas development project. Ironically, India's state explorer, Oil and Natural Gas Corp and utility Gas Authority of India Limited, are partners under the majority stakeholder, South Korea's Daewoo.
According to a press statement, India has also signed a tax treaty with Myanmar to check evasion and to boost trade and investments. The double taxation avoidance agreement will cover taxes on individual incomes, company profits, dividends, interest and capital gains.
It is apparent that India will not desist from dealing with Myanmar in all matters despite Western pressure.
The Foreign Ministry, though, issued a politically correct statement that Manmohan "underlined the need for Myanmar to expedite the process and make it broad-based to include all sections of society, including [opposition icon] Aung San Suu Kyi and the various ethnic groups in Myanmar".
But Ansari emphasized India's position that international sanctions will be "counterproductive" to the economic progress of Myanmar and detrimental to the interests of the people.
This is a reiteration of Mukherjee's statements last year that the United Nations should not impose sanctions on Myanmar and that New Delhi does not have any problems dealing with military regimes in its regional neighborhood.
The Kaladan agreement is being viewed as the first serious step in implementing New Delhi's "Look East" policy, of which Mukherjee is a big proponent.
Aye's visit follows an aggressive diplomatic initiative launched by India in Myanmar. This year, India's foreign secretary visited Myanmar to coincide with the declaration by the military junta of a constitution referendum in May and democratic elections in 2010.
For over a decade India has been trying to engage Myanmar, with which it shares a 1,600 kilometer border, despite international pressure to isolate Yangon over its human rights record and the recent crackdown on pro-democracy protesters.
Officials and experts have proffered various reasons for India's approach. India's geographical proximity to Myanmar makes it important to engage with it, and trade and economics are essential for both parties. Additionally, Delhi has cited the need for joint operations to confront separatist elements in India's northeast which find refuge in Myanmar.
India has also been very uncomfortable with the prospect of China's involvement in building ports in Pakistan (Gwadar), Sri Lanka and Myanmar. Recent reports suggest China's aid to Sri Lanka for infrastructure projects has crossed $1 billion, more than double the amount being invested by the traditional partners, India and Japan.
Such efforts by Beijing open the possibility of India being enveloped by a Chinese naval presence from all fronts. However, it is still quite unlikely that India would have resisted international pressure to the extent it has, had it not been for Myanmar's rich natural gas resources. Myanmar's proven gas reserves stood at 19 trillion cubic feet (tcf) at the end of 2006, with vast areas yet unexplored.
Over the past five years, China has made massive investments in Myanmar to build its case for the energy sources. Beijing has followed a similar strategy in Asia, Africa and Latin America to win energy blocks and has recently struck deals in Kazakhstan, Russia, Indonesia, Nigeria and Angola - in most cases beating out India as one of the main contenders.
Much to India's chagrin, China has even offered to buy gas from Iran should India opt out of the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline. India has been dilly-dallying about the IPI due to US pressure to forestall the project.
In response to Beijing's efforts, Myanmar has already inked a memorandum of understanding with PetroChina to supply 6.5 tcf of gas from Block A of the Shwe gas fields in the Bay of Bengal for over 30 years. This was seen as a big blow to New Delhi's efforts to bring gas from Myanmar.
It is increasingly apparent that it will be either China or India that will be given the rights to oil and gas from Myanmar. Yangon recently rejected a request to sell gas to Bangladesh to help the country meet its growing energy crisis.
Bangladesh's Deputy Energy Minister M Tamim has been quoted as saying, "They said they would sell their gas to India and China, but cannot export gas to Bangladesh at the moment. Myanmar would consider selling gas to Bangladesh only after new discoveries are made."
Outbid by Beijing for energy blocks across the world, an alarmed New Delhi has thus softened its stand against Myanmar in the past year.
Last September, India's Petroleum Minister Murli Deora visited Myanmar to sign exploration agreements, even as massive pro-democracy protests broke out. Deora had rushed to Myanmar after being publicly reprimanded by the Prime Minister's Office for failing to beat out China in Myanmar's energy stakes.
Recent reports suggest China is mulling the prospects of building oil and gas pipelines from Myanmar to its southwestern province of Yunnan.
Clearly, India has a formidable task ahead.
By Siddharth Srivastava
-
US's Strategic Interests in Myanmar
by John H. Badgley
Excerpt from the US's THE NATIONAL BEREAUE OF ASIAN RESEARCH
"Since the end of World War II, the United States has wielded enormous influence in Asia, although some see the efficacy of U.S. policies in decline across the region. The essays in this volume document the decline with regard to Myanmar. What interests does the United States have in its relations with Myanmar today? The highest priority in recent years has been concern for human rights and the U.S. determination to shift power from the military regime to the victors in the 1990 election, the National League for Democracy (NLD). However, Washington can no longer ignore Myanmar's strategic location between India and China, the world's two most populous countries. As a result of sanctions, U.S. influence over Myanmar has declined while China has advanced its interests. Related to these two concerns is the potential for state collapse in Myanmar, which would threaten the stability of the country's neighbors. Finally, for years Myanmar's inability to control illicit narcotics production and export has troubled the United States as a major consumer of those drugs."Full text in PDF:-
http://www.nbr.org/publications/analysis/pdf/vol15no1.pdf -
US expects all ASEAN leaders at summit
MANILA — The United States expects the leaders of all ASEAN nations to attend a summit in Singapore next week, a US diplomat said Saturday, setting the stage for a possible meeting between Barack Obama and leaders of Myanmar's ruling junta.
Speaking at a meeting in the Philippines where officials are laying the groundwork for the inaugural US-ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) meeting, Washington's ambassador to the organisation, Scott Marciel, said: "We expect all ASEAN leaders to attend the summit in Singapore."
Marciel did not elaborate, but his comments indicate that Washington expects Myanmar's Prime Minister Thein Sein will be in Singapore on November 15, opening the door for a potential meeting with the US leader.
Washington has recently softened its stance towards military-ruled Myanmar after years of refusing to engage with the junta.
Marciel and his boss, US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell, this week visited the reclusive state, the most senior US officials to do so since 1995.
As well as meeting leading members of the regime, they also met detained democracy campaigner Aung San Suu Kyi.
The Singapore summit could offer an opportunity for higher-level contact, when representatives from APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) begin meeting Tuesday, with ASEAN leaders gathering in the city-state shortly afterwards.
Earlier, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said Thein Sein was expected to attend the ASEAN summit.
Lee also said detained Suu Kyi would be discussed when Obama meets with ASEAN leaders.
In previous years, Western leaders have avoided meeting officials from Myanmar, preferring a policy of isolating the regime because of its poor human rights record and disregard for democracy.
In contrast, ASEAN, which groups Myanmar, Singapore, Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, has sought to engage with the junta
http://sgblogs.com/entry/expect-myanmar-military-leaders-attend-apec-summit-pore/367116
-
Don't forget Japan.
Japan PM pledges US$5.5 bil. for Mekong region
http://www.chinapost.com.tw/asia/japan/2009/11/07/231801/Japan-PM.htm
Japan seeks closer Southeast Asian ties with Mekong summit
06 November 2009 1806 hrs
Photos 1 of 1 
Yukio Hatoyama (file pic)TOKYO: Japan from Friday hosts the leaders of Southeast Asia's five Mekong River nations as the world's number two economy looks to deepen ties with the resource-rich region amid growing influence from China.
Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, who has pushed the concept of an EU-style Asian Community since taking office in September, will meet his counterparts from Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam for the two-day meeting.
Aside from broad regional issues, the Japanese side also highlighted the significance of Myanmar Prime Minister Thein Sein visiting, saying it would be a good opportunity for dialogue between the two countries.
Much of the region along the lower stretches of the 4,800-kilometre (2,980-mile) Mekong, which starts in the Himalayas, was long isolated by war and turmoil, and remains poorer than other parts of Southeast Asia.
But development has picked up in recent years, with Japan, China and multilateral lenders bringing aid and infrastructure investment, including a web of highways that now criss-cross the region.
"Narrowing the development gap is quite an important agenda point," said a Japanese foreign ministry official. "Development of the Mekong region will be an important step towards building an East Asian Community."
Besides roads and other infrastructure, Japan is expected to discuss cooperation in programmes to protect the environment, combat climate change and boost human resources development.
The Nikkei business daily said Hatoyama would pledge 200 billion yen (2.2 billion dollars) in low-interest loans – mostly to Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam and primarily for water and waste disposal projects – over three years.
The summit follows a Mekong foreign ministers' meeting in Cambodia in early October and is the first such meeting between Japan and the five nations, according to the foreign ministry here.
The meeting does not include China, although the Mekong flows through the country, where it is called the Lancang.
China has in recent years stepped up aid and investment in the region, from rubber plantations and mines in landlocked Laos, to trade with the military regime in Myanmar, the country formerly called Burma.
The Japanese ministry official, speaking on condition he not be named, denied that Japan was competing with China for greater influence in the lucrative region of about 220 million people.
"We don't need to compete with others," the official said, arguing that Tokyo and Beijing have "very good relations" when it comes to coordinating policies on the region's development.
But Takashi Inoguchi, an international politics professor at Niigata University, said "the Japanese government thinks it is very important" to foster deeper ties with Southeast Asia in view of China's growing presence.
"The phrase 'big market in Asia' may bring to mind China or India, but growth is gathering momentum in ASEAN nations," he said, referring to the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
Hatoyama will also have bilateral meetings, including with Thein Sein, who is the first premier from Myanmar to visit Japan since 2003 when his predecessor, Khin Nyunt, attended Japan-ASEAN talks.
The ministry official said the gathering would present "a unique opportunity" for Japan to have high-level talks with Myanmar.
"We need to continue to encourage the Myanmar government to take positive steps in the process of democratisation," he said.
The US administration has recently changed its tough stance towards Myanmar and adopted a policy of engagement, with senior US envoys visiting this week.
"Their approach is now coming closer to Japan's policy direction," which has favoured dialogue, the Japanese official said.http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific/view/1016390/1/.html
USA, China, India, Japan all competing for influence now in south east asia.
Throwing money around to buy favour.
Whatever it is, I don't want USA to be in east asia community.
-
Singapore pledge to Mynamar Juntas.
"We are open 24hrs for you and your citizens to come into our country"
-
xtreyier where?
-
Originally posted by Pentaxdude90:
xtreyier where?
when to mynamar for holiday -
The Nicobar Islands are miles and miles away from mainland India, located near Myanmar on the Andaman Sea. These were 'no-man' land annexed and administered by the Imperial British and later handed over to the Indian.
The Indian's military has eavesdropping devices installed in the Nicobar Islands. From the Indian sub-continent, it is the only place where the Himalayas do not obsure the secret military signals going on in China. And there are also strong Indian miltary presence and patrolling along the water.
The British has handed the most strategic piece of land to the Indian, without the British or the Indian knowing then. Now, with the region growing importance and wealth, everyone scambles to carve their interests before their interests are overshawdowed by others.
The Indian and Chinese openly court Myanmar.The Chinese will do all they can to prevent their landlocked western front from falling into the hands of their rivals - India and/or US.
The Myanmar are now turning to the US because they fear an influx of Chinese migrants.
The US has to court Maynmar because it has found the most strategic place to eyeball two growing gaints.It is a good place for everybody's strategic games.
-
During the Bush/Cheney regime, USA tried to pursue a strategy to encircle China wanting to form a bloc with Japan, India, Australia, USA, conduct joint naval excercises etc.
USA also moved in military bases into central asia so as to threaten China and Russia's borders and to destroy their influence there.
USA scheming for "Great Central Asia" Strategy
http://english.people.com.cn/200608/03/eng20060803_289512.html
Encircling China
http://www.politicalaffairs.net/article/view/5031/1/249/
But both plots ran into trouble and failed.
USA is bogged down in Afghanistan and Japan-U.S alliance is weakening.
-
Singapore offered a piece of land to Mynamar around peninsular hotel, it will be rename as the New South Yangon
-
Originally posted by angel3070:
During the Bush/Cheney regime, USA tried to pursue a strategy to encircle China wanting to form a bloc with Japan, India, Australia, USA, conduct joint naval excercises etc.
USA also moved in military bases into central asia so as to threaten China and Russia's borders and to destroy their influence there.
USA scheming for "Great Central Asia" Strategy
http://english.people.com.cn/200608/03/eng20060803_289512.html
Encircling China
http://www.politicalaffairs.net/article/view/5031/1/249/
But both plots ran into trouble and failed.
USA is bogged down in Afghanistan and Japan-U.S alliance is weakening.
And I guess that the plan ran into trouble because of the 911 affair?
Anyway, Bush and his hawks, esp that Donald Rumsfeld, were full of hohas.
Here are some of his interesting quotes
"I would not say that the future is necessarily less predictable than the past. I think the past was not predictable when it started."
"We do know of certain knowledge that he [Osama Bin Laden] is either in Afghanistan, or in some other country, or dead."
"We know where they are. They're in the area around Tikrit and Baghdad and east, west, south and north somewhat." –on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction
"Death has a tendency to encourage a depressing view of war."Must be too much of rum in his drinks
http://politicalhumor.about.com/cs/quotethis/a/rumsfeldquotes.htm
-
Originally posted by 4sg:
And I guess that the plan ran into trouble because of the 911 affair?
Bush/Cheney screwed up everything lah, Iraq, Afghanistan turned into a mess and the housing bubble burst, somemore Russia, China counter attacked with all sorts of alliances like SCO, BRIC etc.
It's an endless story, following their political moves.