my ss angel,
din i always say 1 of the reason govt worrying about is inflation.
it is you who keep talking about investment by foreigners, free market blah blah.
obviously u r losing sight the very reason why the world is facing this financial crisis. do you know why? in case u dont, housing crisis in american.
probably you are one of the few who are still for free market. in my opinion, there should not be totally free market. but in a regulatory, controllable boundary of free market.
i wait for durian to drop
Originally posted by angel7030:
u wait long long..inflation is going to set in soon.
Depends on which camp you are at.
Another camp based on Elliott Wave Theory on the SuperCycle scale says that deflation is coming
Originally posted by noahnoah:
rentals to come down?o ok
then u wait lor..
I waiting for Christmas
Property bubble usually burst about 6 to 9 months after stock markets bottomed ;)
I'm pretty sure in early to mid 2007, if someone was to say stocks to come down, pple will tell them to wait lor. Sama sama.
Originally posted by eagle:Depends on which camp you are at.
Another camp based on Elliott Wave Theory on the SuperCycle scale says that deflation is coming
U eat too much potatos, dun believe in too much theory ya, most westerner like to sell your soul.
The eonomic here is simple, rich buy assets, after buying, they need funds to breakeven. Most of them are business peoples, they will jack up their prices in a cartel way, consumers will suffer. A typical singapore who buy a house at 1 million is not going to rent to you at a lower price even if the property goes back to norm.
Originally posted by angel7030:U eat too much potatos, dun believe in too much theory ya, most westerner like to sell your soul.
The eonomic here is simple, rich buy assets, after buying, they need funds to breakeven. Most of them are business peoples, they will jack up their prices in a cartel way, consumers will suffer. A typical singapore who buy a house at 1 million is not going to rent to you at a lower price even if the property goes back to norm.
Simple. Then u go buy now lor.
So many Westerners are telling you that inflation is going to set in. Go check out CNBC and Bloomberg news. Are you going to believe in their theories?
And if your last sentence holds true, there will never be up and down cycles.
Originally posted by reyes:my ss angel,
din i always say 1 of the reason govt worrying about is inflation.
it is you who keep talking about investment by foreigners, free market blah blah.
obviously u r losing sight the very reason why the world is facing this financial crisis. do you know why? in case u dont, housing crisis in american.
probably you are one of the few who are still for free market. in my opinion, there should not be totally free market. but in a regulatory, controllable boundary of free market.
Regulatory and control there must be, that i cannot deny, but our regulatory and control system is base on a free market ideologist, and it had alway being in this way,..u walk into a showsroom, get a sale agent attention and negotiate an apartment you want to buy, and you bought it, walk out and go home, free market at play. Our regulatory is unlike other whereby you may not even have the luxury to step into the showsroom not to mention buying it, there is enforcement in it. Our regulatory play on the capital part, the initial downpayment, the approval of loan and the mean of a person. And it can change from time to time to create a conducive market, both vibrant, sustainable and yet able to control.
The america crisis started when capital regulatory do not exist, as long as you are an American and an american needs a house, you can get loan which the bank underwrite and buy it.
Originally posted by eagle:Simple. Then u go buy now lor.
So many Westerners are telling you that inflation is going to set in. Go check out CNBC and Bloomberg news. Are you going to believe in their theories?
And if your last sentence holds true, there will never be up and down cycles.
i no money...so no money, no talk lor....hmm..ask my dad, my dad also said i too ambitious..
Originally posted by eagle:Simple. Then u go buy now lor.
So many Westerners are telling you that inflation is going to set in. Go check out CNBC and Bloomberg news. Are you going to believe in their theories?
And if your last sentence holds true, there will never be up and down cycles.
what u mean by no up and down...when inflation set in, it dun just set in on a high note, if climb up slowly until people feel the pain of it, just the last time it rise to 7% from a mere 1.5% which is also consider high. And by the time inflation raised to an all time high, the rich would hv make their money, consumers will loose confident, and companies will produce less...which in turn create less jobs and lost of jobs. Then recession set in..then prices will start to slip down and the cycle goes on again
Originally posted by angel7030:
i no money...so no money, no talk lor....hmm..ask my dad, my dad also said i too ambitious..
Being ambitious is never wrong.
But be it inflation or deflation, who cares. You earn, I earn, everyone happy can liao right :)
Originally posted by angel7030:
what u mean by no up and down...when inflation set in, it dun just set in on a high note, if climb up slowly until people feel the pain of it, just the last time it rise to 7% from a mere 1.5% which is also consider high. And by the time inflation raised to an all time high, the rich would hv make their money, consumers will loose confident, and companies will produce less...which in turn create less jobs and lost of jobs. Then recession set in..then prices will start to slip down and the cycle goes on again
Now you say prices start to slip down. So rentals (price of renting) won't slip down?
A typical singapore who buy a house at 1 million is not going to rent to you at a lower price even if the property goes back to norm.
Originally posted by eagle:Being ambitious is never wrong.
But be it inflation or deflation, who cares. You earn, I earn, everyone happy can liao right :)
Hello, my Dad is afraid i take over his money and asset, then i become a rich gal, when that happen, a lot of wolves will be dating me and as every parents do, they scare I get cheated both of money and body.
Originally posted by eagle:Now you say prices start to slip down. So rentals (price of renting) won't slip down?
do u know when durian drop or not..it take quite some time, doesn't mean that prices slip down, rental will go down, as I said, a person spend 1 million to buy an apartment and rent to you at 2k per month, then i think he should go and die better.
Originally posted by angel7030:
do u know when durian drop or not..it take quite some time, doesn't mean that prices slip down, rental will go down, as I said, a person spend 1 million to buy an apartment and rent to you at 2k per month, then i think he should go and die better.
No one will rent from this person if rentals in the mass market by people who bought at 600k rent it lower when the market valuations drop; no loss to these people.
The loss comes to this person who stupidly spend 1 mil to buy at the highs.He can maintain that he wants to rent out at 3k a month for e.g. If he's lucky, there will be people who will rent unknowingly.
Go back to 1996 and think of what happened to the property market at that time, and then the subsequent economic crisis. You can revisit what I have said 2 years from now.
Good day. I'm not spending any more time to give researched ideas for free.
Originally posted by eagle:No one will rent from this person if rentals in the mass market by people who bought at 600k rent it lower when the market valuations drop; no loss to these people.
The loss comes to this person who stupidly spend 1 mil to buy at the highs.He can maintain that he wants to rent out at 3k a month for e.g. If he's lucky, there will be people who will rent unknowingly.
Go back to 1996 and think of what happened to the property market at that time, and then the subsequent economic crisis. You can revisit what I have said 2 years from now.
Good day. I'm not spending any more time to give researched ideas for free.
Exactly, now u get it, there are alot of stupid people out there going to end up paying high loan interest and force selling soon, so how can rental goes down with all these stupid peoples around, he rents high because he bought high, he see him rented high, he rents out higher and so on...
U stubborn eagle, i go take my water gun and shoot you down,..go..go read your ang mo theorys
Regulatory and control there must be, that i cannot deny, but our regulatory and control system is base on a free market ideologist, and it had alway being in this way,..u walk into a showsroom, get a sale agent attention and negotiate an apartment you want to buy, and you bought it, walk out and go home, free market at play. Our regulatory is unlike other whereby you may not even have the luxury to step into the showsroom not to mention buying it, there is enforcement in it. Our regulatory play on the capital part, the initial downpayment, the approval of loan and the mean of a person. And it can change from time to time to create a conducive market, both vibrant, sustainable and yet able to control.
The america crisis started when capital regulatory do not exist, as long as you are an American and an american needs a house, you can get loan which the bank underwrite and buy it.
para 1 , yes u got it. we need a regulatory control property market.
para 2, yes u got it again.
finally u got it. the pain of unregulatory property market will create havoc and deep pain in any economy. let alone singapore.
i think we are going probably going for another round of deep recession. i fear about the commercial real estate in american. it could lead us for another banking crisis.
http://www.moneymorning.com/2009/04/01/commercial-real-estate-crisis/
it has the potential to make unemployment above 10%. more banks failure, more govt intervention, stocks market correction.
my advice,be very very very careful. this could be one of the reason why, tim geithner, benarnke, our tharma are not willing to say the crisis are over.
Originally posted by reyes:
i think we are going probably going for another round of deep recession. i fear about the commercial real estate in american. it could lead us for another banking crisis.
http://www.moneymorning.com/2009/04/01/commercial-real-estate-crisis/
it has the potential to make unemployment above 10%. more banks failure, more govt intervention, stocks market correction.
my advice,be very very very careful. this could be one of the reason why, tim geithner, benarnke, our tharma are not willing to say the crisis are over.
The US unemployment is already around 16% depending on states. The commercial real estate default on repayment of capital will start next year or this year end. But i figure Wall street will capitalized on profit gain as priority as everyone wants to recoup their Cash.
I think this will affect of the institutional long term investors but again it is part of self cleaning oven for overly invested in real estate and its valuation.
Originally posted by reyes:
i think we are going probably going for another round of deep recession. i fear about the commercial real estate in american. it could lead us for another banking crisis.
http://www.moneymorning.com/2009/04/01/commercial-real-estate-crisis/
it has the potential to make unemployment above 10%. more banks failure, more govt intervention, stocks market correction.
my advice,be very very very careful. this could be one of the reason why, tim geithner, benarnke, our tharma are not willing to say the crisis are over.
reyes
I recommend you to read the website of Elliott Wave International
This bear rally and the 2nd dip you mentioned had already been expected long ago via this wave theory. Starting with only $200 left in bank in Mar 09 and hence not able to capitulate on the cheap prices, I continued buying in Apr, May and June 09 from more salary because this wave theory had suggested a multi-month rise. Now, with the wave theory, the bear rally is coming to an end.
And I can say, it's not going to be pretty. I'm starting to slowly liquidate some positions. And it might be too late as an island reversal, albeit weak, was formed yesterday.
In fact, I have recently signed up for a CFD account, and will be waiting to short the market if and when the opportunity arises.
Originally posted by eagle:Now you say prices start to slip down. So rentals (price of renting) won't slip down?
prices of essential goods, not neccessary rental house, a guy bought at one million, most likely, he will rent it at the same high price till the market is right, he will sell it away. By the way, Singapore rental property is alway up...unless you get are able to find a stupid goondo who got too much money to spare to rent you at a cheap rate.
Originally posted by eagle:Simple. Then u go buy now lor.
So many Westerners are telling you that inflation is going to set in. Go check out CNBC and Bloomberg news. Are you going to believe in their theories?
And if your last sentence holds true, there will never be up and down cycles.
I'm not much of an investor but i'm curious.
What was CNBC and Bloomberg saying just before the recent finanical crisis?
Originally posted by reyes:para 1 , yes u got it. we need a regulatory control property market.
para 2, yes u got it again.
finally u got it. the pain of unregulatory property market will create havoc and deep pain in any economy. let alone singapore.
my proponent here is that please dun alway compare with the Americans, it seem that all things goes right or wrong, the American is alway taken as a benchmark to compare with...what is American nowaday, beside those hollywood stunts still looking attractive, the rest are going downhill, look at those harvard trained business man in NY financial insitutions, so much money being swayed away with so much unethical management...does harvard train them to be like this..or MIT? The American way of managing their property is entirely different from our conservatives approach.
We should therefore do our own soul searching, we being the first and the hardest hit economy in Asia because of the Americans and we still wants to compare apple to apple with them, no way. And we are able to plough thru this crisis (which, in other countries, it would had melt down totally) is because we stood by our strong free market regulatories and policies, which we had put in place in a proactive effort, next, our saving thru the years had give us an added advantage to stay afloat and better than others.
Many countries had initially think that Singapore is going to be finish with this crisis, but we stood firm, our dollars value is still there, and even much better than most, our employment rate is still good, our consumer confident is even more as shown in those Comex and NAtas tour exibitions. You dun feel that there is a recession.
Originally posted by Stevenson101:I'm not much of an investor but i'm curious.
What was CNBC and Bloomberg saying just before the recent finanical crisis?
Just before I'm not sure.
From what I was told, bears were ridiculed. In fact, Elliott Wave International called for a top in Jul 07 (and subsequently to close all shorts and start to long in Feb 09, before re-iterating it in the first few days of Mar 09).
I got interested only in early 08, and many analysts reports were still bullish at that time. Then near Mar 09, many analysts reports from those so called experts were super bearish.
Now on hindsight, I guess it's quite clear.
Originally posted by eagle:Just before I'm not sure.
From what I was told, bears were ridiculed. In fact, Elliott Wave International called for a top in Jul 07 (and subsequently to close all shorts and start to long in Feb 09, before re-iterating it in the first few days of Mar 09).
I got interested only in early 08, and many analysts reports were still bullish at that time. Then near Mar 09, many analysts reports from those so called experts were super bearish.
Now on hindsight, I guess it's quite clear.
Cross my heart, another US conn..sultant