Change coming to Japan in September '09 Election ?
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The winds of change is blowing again, with Japan's Alternative Political Party - the Democratic Party of Japan being sleighted to win and form the next government in September 2009(*1);
The incumbent Liberal Democratic Party will be replaced after governing Japan for more then 50 years.
Amidst such uncertain times, it takes courage for the Japanese Citizens to take a bold step and opt for change to its present state of political and economic limbo that has existed for more then 10 years.
Will the same cold wind blow and strengthen the hearts of Singaporeans ?
Opposition widely favored to win Japan election
By Lisa Twaronite, MarketWatch
TOKYO (MarketWatch) -- Japanese voters will head to the polls Sunday, where they will likely send the ruling Liberal Democratic Party a message similar to the one heard in the U.S. last November: We want change.
The main opposition Democratic Party of Japan has promised to deliver that change. It seeks to form a government with a focus on boosting domestic demand, rather than the LDP's traditional emphasis on supporting businesses and industry.
But the DPJ has been vague on how this ambitious shift will be funded, in a country where government debt already tops 170% of gross domestic product.
"The challenge facing Japan's government is obvious: diversifying the Japanese economy's base of growth from over-dependence on expansion of external demand," said Naomi Fink, Japan strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in Tokyo.
"The financial crisis has indeed undermined Japan's postwar economic model, yet has created the potential for a reform-oriented administration to tap Japan's plentiful private-sector wealth," she said in a research report this week.
The LDP's grip on power has been only rarely interrupted during the past five decades, but analysts say it is unlikely to fare well this weekend, when Japan holds its first lower-house election since September 2005.
Recent opinion surveys predict a landslide for the DPJ, with an Asahi Shimbun poll tipping it to take 320 of the 480 seats up for grabs in the lower house, according to a Kyodo news report Thursday.
The DPJ and smaller opposition parties already control the less-powerful upper house of the Diet. But the lower house, which holds the reins of power, is controlled by the LDP and its junior ally, the New Komeito party.
Greetings and promises
The election campaign period officially began last week, with candidates driving around the streets of their constituencies, waving and blaring their greetings and promises from megaphones.
When DPJ Secretary-General Katsuya Okada was asked at a press briefing earlier this month about the key differences between his party's policies and those of the LDP, he reportedly said that "theirs is tailored toward agencies and organizations, while ours is toward each and every one."
The global crisis that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers last autumn "proved that Japan's traditional growth strategy led by exports no longer works," Okada said.
The DPJ has promised to pay cash allowances of more than $3,000 per child to families, abolish highway tolls, make public high school tuition-free and provide more social programs -- all while postponing a hike in the country's 5% consumption tax. Yet officials haven't detailed how such measures would be funded.
"Although the [DPJ] party has most recently issued an addendum to its manifesto outlining its growth strategy (aimed at increasing households' disposable income), public doubts abound over the practicality of plans to procure funds for its programs without aggravating Japan's already monumental fiscal deficits," Fink said.
In real terms, the Japanese economy returned to positive growth in the April-June quarter, when GDP rose 0.9% from the January-March period, at an annualized pace of 3.7%.
But nominal GDP fell 0.2%, meaning "the so-called recovery was entirely due to a 1.1% fall in prices," Brian Reading of Lombard Street Research wrote in a note. See full story on Japan GDP.
"It may be thought that recovery from recession will help restore some support for the government. But it is worth noticing that this recovery was a statisticians' construct," said Reading.
Data released Friday painted a relatively grim picture of Japan's economic situation in July, with unemployment hitting a new postwar record of 5.7% and deflation increasing at the fastest pace in decades. See full story on latest Japanese economic data.
Foreign investor keep buying
Outside of Japan, investors watching the political developments from afar appeared unfazed by the likely LDP defeat.
Weekly data released by the Ministry of Finance has shown that overseas investors were net buyers of Japanese stocks for five of the last six weeks. In the one week seeing net outflows -- Aug. 16-22 -- the sales were attributed to profit-taking amid a rise in the yen, rather than any political factor.
"Well aware of the pending shift, foreign investors have stepped up purchases of Japanese equities in recent weeks," and are "voting with their feet or pocket books," said Marc Chandler, head of global currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York, in emailed comments.
Given the DPJ's emphasis on boosting consumption, many strategists expect companies with high domestic-demand components to fare better than their foreign-demand-focused counterparts.
Peter Eadon-Clarke and Shih-Han Huang, analysts at Macquarie Research in Tokyo, said in a recent report that a DPJ government would be "pro-consumption and clean energy at the expense of public investment."
They recommended possible DPJ-victory beneficiaries such as education and child-care products maker Benesse Corp. /quotes/comstock/!9783 (JP:9783 4,370, -40.00, -0.91%) , and Panasonic Corp. /quotes/comstock/!6752 (JP:6752 1,478, -11.00, -0.74%) , which could profit from a boost to disposable incomes. Read more on Japan election plays.
But so far, there is no evidence that a shift to domestic demand has begun, said Cantor Fitzgerald economist Uwe Parpart.
Parpart said in emailed comments Thursday that companies tilted most toward foreign demand have fared the best so far this year and are continuing to do so.
Citing a study by Nikkei, he said stocks of firms with at least 60% of total sales coming from outside the country had risen 40.4%, compared with a 19.7% rise in the benchmark Nikkei 225 Average through the close of trading Aug. 14.
The foreign-demand stocks account for 14% of Nikkei components but comprise more than 25% of the index's value, he said.
"But quite possibly such underperformance to date is a plus and an opportunity as the DPJ takes power and jacks up domestic demand," he said.
Family tradition
If the DPJ's victory unfolds as expected, the head of the party, 62-year-old Yukio Hatoyama, will likely become Japan's prime minister. Hatoyama started out in the LDP before leaving the party in 1993.
One change a Hatoyama administration won't bring is a move away from perceptions of nepotism.
The three prime ministers who preceded Aso all had fathers who were either a Cabinet minister or served as prime minister themselves.
Hatoyama wouldn't break this family tradition: His father was foreign minister, and one of his grandfathers was prime minister in the 1950s. In fact, that grandfather, Ichiro Hatoyama, was the LDP's founder and first prime minister, and his main opponent was Shigeru Yoshida -- current Prime Minister Aso's grandfather.
Lisa Twaronite reports for MarketWatch from Tokyo.
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Maybe our local elections might be held in Sept too.
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Originally posted by charlize:
Maybe our local elections might be held in Sept too.
Sure?
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When PAP start giving you $1200 divided by the next 3 years..... GE is around the corner
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Let's hope our elections will also end up this way.
52 years of unbroken rule by PAP broken by the opposition party.
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Originally posted by Chew Bakar:
Sure?
You will suddenly see people you don't normally see visiting your household.
No, I don't mean entities associated with the Hungry Ghost Festival.
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http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific/view/1001687/1/.html
CNA reports that the Japanese are looking for change.
Obama also used "change" as a theme in his presidential campaign.
Maybe, for Singapore, there needs to be some changes too.
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Originally posted by charlize:
Maybe, for Singapore, there needs to be some changes too.
What do you mean "maybe"?
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Since its first election victory in 1955, the Liberal Democratic Party had governed Japan continuously since.
Now Japanese votes have decided to throw out the long term Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in favor of the Alternative Party - Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) - for all the shannigan dealings within the LDP that could not solve the economic woes of Japan.
Channelnews Asia reported in the 9.00pm news that the DPJ won 241 seats compared to LDP's 60 seat.
Tokyo Broadcasting System had earlier given a forecasted landslide for DPJ of 321 seats in the 480 seat Lower House of Japan's Parliament.
While Nippon Television predicted a DPJ total of 324 seats against the LDP's 96.
The designated new Prime Minister from DPJ is ‘Yukio Hatoyama, who pitches himself as someone fighting for change for the people of Japan, plans to slash wasteful public spending and cut down the authority of the bureaucrats. (*1)
What possibly is the main cause for this wind of change to take effect in Japan - a nation reputed for its political wisdom to maintain economic and social stability ?
Could the DPJ have succeeded - if the LDP had played politics in the same manner as the PAP ?
Singaporeans will have to learn from the Japanese that the future is in the hands of the citizens, we are responsible for the situation that we find ourselves in - by allowing a political party to monopolise politics for 44 years, and blind to the continuous and frequent changes to the perimeters of fair play that only benefit itself.
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Originally posted by Atobe:
Channelnews Asia reported in the 9.00pm news that the DPJ won 241 seats compared to LDP's 60 seat.
So when is the same going to happen in Singapore?
When can we get rid of the PAP?
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Oh COME ON!
Can we stop with the complete black and white view about politics and how the LDP lost their power, and it is not just a matter of opposition triumping over the ruling party?
A new poliitcal party rising to power might not even be benenfical to the nation from time to time, like how electing Margaret Thatcher and the tories into power over the Labour party basically screwed the UK's economy.
The LDP lost power not because the people are somehow frustrated with the ruling party being in power for so long. It's because the LDP is unable to bring Japan out of its economic slump ever since the recession in the 90s.
Heh, if we want Singapore to follow Japan, we would be stuck in a economic slump for almost two decades. Seriously, are people down here somehow calling for the PAP to mismanage Singapore, just to get their favourite party into power
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Originally posted by ray245:
Heh, if we want Singapore to follow Japan, we would be stuck in a economic slump for almost two decades.
Proof?
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Originally posted by angel3070:
Proof?
To what argument? About the Tories? About the fact that a newly elected party might not be able to run the country as well as a former ruling party?
Bear in mind that I am not against how the DPJ formed their economic policies.
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Originally posted by ray245:
To what argument?
if we want Singapore to follow Japan we would be stuck in a economic slump for almost two decades.
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Well i've read Dogs and Demons by Alex Kerr.
If what he writes is true, the true power do not lie with the political parties but with the bureaucrats.
So whether this changing of dominant party would lead to meaningful change or not, is still going to be an open question.
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Originally posted by angel3070:
if we want Singapore to follow Japan we would be stuck in a economic slump for almost two decades.
If we want to follow the path that leads to the DPJ to power.
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Originally posted by ray245:
If we want to follow the path that leads to the DPJ to power.
I think easier to just vote PAP out.
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Originally posted by angel3070:
I think easier to just vote PAP out.
And replace them with what?
Which opposition party is supposed to be our new ruling party?
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Originally posted by ray245:
Oh COME ON!
Can we stop with the complete black and white view about politics and how the LDP lost their power, and it is not just a matter of opposition triumping over the ruling party?
If DPJ did not trounce the LDP in sweeping them out of power - how should we see the event that is unfolding even at this time ?
A new poliitcal party rising to power might not even be benenfical to the nation from time to time, like how electing Margaret Thatcher and the tories into power over the Labour party basically screwed the UK's economy.
Magaret Thatcher came into power as PM of UK from 1979 and stepped down in 1990 - and was PM for THREE consecutive term in being re-elected.
Her main achievement was dealing with the coal miners and its union that held UK consumers to ransom, and they were defanged during Thatcher's term.
Besides defanging the trade unions, it was during her term as PM of UK that she reduced state intervention in the economy, embraced free markets and encouraged entrepreneurism.
The previous decade of Labor Party of nationalisation was terminated, and all the various nationally-owned enterprises were privatised.
The runaway inflation that plagued UK throughout the 1970s was faced head-on by Thatcher with her daring fiscal policies, which created controversies through out the late 1970s within the Conservative Party and with the economic gurus.
It was only by 1983, when the UK economy responded to all her fiscal policies that UK became stronger with inflation beaten, and the unions disciplined.
Magaret Thatcher remained popular even when her tough policies bite into the pockets of everyone but which had benefitted UK overall with her unique controversial approaches being called Thatcherism - which was recognised as setting the UK on the path to recovery and long term growth.
Her resignation from the Conservative Party was not due to her failure with economic policies but with internal disagreement in having UK joining the Euro Single Currency - which she felt will undermine UK's own sterling pound currency.
How did Magaret Thatcher screw up the economy - when at the time she resigned from the Conservative Party, UK's economy was at its best since the inflationary period during the Labor Party rule in the 1970s - which saw the blight of constant union cat strikes that destabilised the economy ?
Do you know who took over from her to lead the Conservative Party to lose the next election to Tony Blair from the Labor Party ?
The LDP lost power not because the people are somehow frustrated with the ruling party being in power for so long. It's because the LDP is unable to bring Japan out of its economic slump ever since the recession in the 90s.
From Channel News Asia website reporting on the landslide victory of the DPJ.’ (*1)
"I think we need a change now," agreed one voter, pensioner Toshihiro Nakamura, 68, after casting his ballot on Sunday at a Tokyo elementary school. "It's too long for a single party to dominate national politics."
‘Time for change, says Japanese voters (*2) - "It's too long for a single party to dominate national politics," said Nakamura, echoing what polls have suggested is a widespread view among Japan's electorate of more than 103 million.
"This is an election to say goodbye to the LDP," said Haruko Kurakata, 77, who said she voted for an opposition candidate, in part because she had grown tired of the country's recent revolving-door leadership.
"It's nonsense to see four prime ministers in four years without asking for the people's opinion," she said, referring to frequent changes at the top since popular former premier Junichiro Koizumi stepped down in 2006.
"I decided to participate in a vote for the first time in my life, because I want to share in the feeling of bringing about a power change," said a 35-year-old Internet company owner in Tokyo.
"As a taxpayer, I want to see our taxes spent in a fair way, unlike the old-fashioned practice of dumping our money into public works that merely enrich local construction workers," he said."I feel it's not bad to let the opposition try at least once," said Chie Miyamoto, a 25-year-old nurse. "I hope the next government will pay more attention to social problems, including a lack of workers at hospitals."
If the wealthy Japanese nation can throw out a ‘Japanese PM paid Yen 2,304,000 a month (or USD343,000 a year) (*3) who cannot solve their economic problems, why should Singaporeans allow a PM paid S$3,000,000+ a year to have Singapore wait for external economic factors to recover before seeing the results trickle over here ?
Heh, if we want Singapore to follow Japan, we would be stuck in a economic slump for almost two decades. Seriously, are people down here somehow calling for the PAP to mismanage Singapore, just to get their favourite party into power
Which make of crystal ball are you depending to look into the future ?
Just looking back at Singapore's economy, it has been struck in 1997 by the financial crisis, and again by 9/11 incidents in 2001, SARS in 2003, Bird Flu in 2004, Recession and Retrenchment began in 2005, and economy continue to flounder in 2006 with continued retrenchments (*4), while the economic outlook for 2007 was very positive (*5), somehow things turned downwards when when unemployment was up 2.3% in Q2 2008 (*6).
Now we are in 2009, and Singapore PM warns of more retrenchment(*7).
Do we have to see another unaccountable loss of US$100 Billion before we see daylight in the ways that the PAP is mismanaging Singapore's fortunes ?
Incidentally, it is a surprise that no one is asking what is the PAP controlled NTUC doing as a high class property developer with the launch of Trevista Condo in Toa Payoh at $898 psf (*8), - and how will the profits benefit the NTUC members ?
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If DPJ did not trounce the LDP in sweeping them out of power - how should we see the event that is unfolding even at this time ?
To look into the issues that make people unhappy with the LDP?
Magaret Thatcher came into power as PM of UK from 1979 and stepped down in 1990 - and was PM for THREE consecutive term in being re-elected.
Her main achievement was dealing with the coal miners and its union that held UK consumers to ransom, and they were defanged during Thatcher's term.
Besides defanging the trade unions, it was during her term as PM of UK that she reduced state intervention in the economy, embraced free markets and encouraged entrepreneurism.
The previous decade of Labor Party of nationalisation was terminated, and all the various nationally-owned enterprises were privatised.
The runaway inflation that plagued UK throughout the 1970s was faced head-on by Thatcher with her daring fiscal policies, which created controversies through out the late 1970s within the Conservative Party and with the economic gurus.
It was only by 1983, when the UK economy responded to all her fiscal policies that UK became stronger with inflation beaten, and the unions disciplined.
Magaret Thatcher remained popular even when her tough policies bite into the pockets of everyone but which had benefitted UK overall with her unique controversial approaches being called Thatcherism - which was recognised as setting the UK on the path to recovery and long term growth.
Her resignation from the Conservative Party was not due to her failure with economic policies but with internal disagreement in having UK joining the Euro Single Currency - which she felt will undermine UK's own sterling pound currency.
How did Magaret Thatcher screw up the economy - when at the time she resigned from the Conservative Party, UK's economy was at its best since the inflationary period during the Labor Party rule in the 1970s - which saw the blight of constant union cat strikes that destabilised the economy ?
Do you know who took over from her to lead the Conservative Party to lose the next election to Tony Blair from the Labor Party ?
Wow, her policy benefited everyone?
Do you even know that proverty level in the UK has doubled despite the increase in GDP?
Industrial output of the UK has also dropped under her? What about the employment rates under her?
Additionally, personal anacedotes aren't worth a damn. You can't say frustration with a ruling party for a long period of time is the primary reason why the LDP fall just because some people who was being interviewed is saying that.
How many people in the whole of Japan actually shares the same view? Can I have some sort of public polls?
And also, why do the Japanese have to wait for 54 years before they make a move? Why not vote against the LDP a few years earlier?
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Originally posted by ray245:
If DPJ did not trounce the LDP in sweeping them out of power - how should we see the event that is unfolding even at this time ?
To look into the issues that make people unhappy with the LDP?
The issues were given in the anecdotes of persons who were interviewed and which you rejected.
Magaret Thatcher came into power as PM of UK from 1979 and stepped down in 1990 - and was PM for THREE consecutive term in being re-elected.
Her main achievement was dealing with the coal miners and its union that held UK consumers to ransom, and they were defanged during Thatcher's term.
Besides defanging the trade unions, it was during her term as PM of UK that she reduced state intervention in the economy, embraced free markets and encouraged entrepreneurism.
The previous decade of Labor Party of nationalisation was terminated, and all the various nationally-owned enterprises were privatised.
The runaway inflation that plagued UK throughout the 1970s was faced head-on by Thatcher with her daring fiscal policies, which created controversies through out the late 1970s within the Conservative Party and with the economic gurus.
It was only by 1983, when the UK economy responded to all her fiscal policies that UK became stronger with inflation beaten, and the unions disciplined.
Magaret Thatcher remained popular even when her tough policies bite into the pockets of everyone but which had benefitted UK overall with her unique controversial approaches being called Thatcherism - which was recognised as setting the UK on the path to recovery and long term growth.
Her resignation from the Conservative Party was not due to her failure with economic policies but with internal disagreement in having UK joining the Euro Single Currency - which she felt will undermine UK's own sterling pound currency.
How did Magaret Thatcher screw up the economy - when at the time she resigned from the Conservative Party, UK's economy was at its best since the inflationary period during the Labor Party rule in the 1970s - which saw the blight of constant union cat strikes that destabilised the economy ?
Do you know who took over from her to lead the Conservative Party to lose the next election to Tony Blair from the Labor Party ?
Wow, her policy benefited everyone?
When coal miners strike occur during the worst winter periods, and public transport workers suddenly walked out of their work places during the most inconvenient times - Magaret Thatcher made it her goal in her second term to curtail the powers of the union, and removed the ability to launch wild cat strikes in UK.
Did that not benefit everyone ?
Do you even know that proverty level in the UK has doubled despite the increase in GDP?
If you believe in the PAP's way of creating benefit to the "majority" first, and attend to the "minority" later - why do you have issues with this ?
Industrial output of the UK has also dropped under her? What about the employment rates under her?
Prior to Margaret Thatcher's becoming PM of UK, the previous PM was Edward Heath, who was subjected to pressures from the various powerful trade unions that were not answerable to the electorates, and did as much to protect their own interests. Interestingly, in an autobiography of her, it stated that industrial output did not drop much (if at all) and certainly not the 40% one might expect showing just how much overmanning existed then. (*1)
Was it the fault of her policies that resulted in high unemployment in the early 1990s - just before she stepped down, or was it due to the recession that hit UK then ?
Additionally, personal anacedotes aren't worth a damn. You can't say frustration with a ruling party for a long period of time is the primary reason why the LDP fall just because some people who was being interviewed is saying that.
How many people in the whole of Japan actually shares the same view? Can I have some sort of public polls?
Was it some people who expressed their frustration with the ruling party for a long period, or can you not accept the opinion of nearly 14 million, who expressed through their vote in Japan’s general election (*2) - based on news report of the count up to this hour ?
And also, why do the Japanese have to wait for 54 years before they make a move? Why not vote against the LDP a few years earlier?
Same question is being asked with Singapore - why have we tolerated this situation for 52 years - since 1957, or 44 years since 1965 ?
Is it not due to the same old "kiasu and kiasi" over cautious attitude of not facing a new world boldly, and believing in the same old fears that the incumbents continue to exploit for their own benefit ?
The unemployment rate has hit 5.7% in Japan now, and they have been in similar economic limbo for the last ten years.
Should we wait for the same set of circumstances before we make the choice, or watch another US$100 Billion unaccounted loss from our reserves before we wake up to the new realities ?
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Originally posted by ray245:
And replace them with what?
Which opposition party is supposed to be our new ruling party?
I am thinking of coalition government of opposition parties.
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Originally posted by angel3070:
I am thinking of coalition government of opposition parties.
Do they even have an economic plan that is fundementally different from the PAP?
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Originally posted by ray245:
Do they even have an economic plan that is fundementally different from the PAP?
the concept for the oppostion alliance is to win first, plan later. -
When coal miners strike occur during the worst winter periods, and public transport workers suddenly walked out of their work places during the most inconvenient times - Magaret Thatcher made it her goal in her second term to curtail the powers of the union, and removed the ability to launch wild cat strikes in UK.
Did that not benefit everyone ?
You do realise that reducing the power of the unions is not the only thing she did? I have no problem with her reducing the power of the unions, but her policy of privatising the national industries in the UK.
If you believe in the PAP's way of creating benefit to the "majority" first, and attend to the "minority" later - why do you have issues with this ?
Maybe I disagree with the PAP's view of giving benefits to the majority while ignoring the minorites?
Prior to Margaret Thatcher's becoming PM of UK, the previous PM was Edward Heath, who was subjected to pressures from the various powerful trade unions that were not answerable to the electorates, and did as much to protect their own interests. Interestingly, in an autobiography of her, it stated that industrial output did not drop much (if at all) and certainly not the 40% one might expect showing just how much overmanning existed then. (*1)
Was it the fault of her policies that resulted in high unemployment in the early 1990s - just before she stepped down, or was it due to the recession that hit UK then ?
Wait? You are using Margaret's own autobiography to defend her?Even if the drop in manufactoring output is not 40 percent, why do you even think that Britian's industrial output should drop to begin with?
So your only defense of Thatcher is she did not screw up bad enough?
Between 1979 and 1985, 1.5 million workers are laid off, industrial output dropped by 11 percent, trade in manufacturing dropped from a surplus to a deficit,
And wait, so you are also defending her because the economic meltdown occurred after she step down from office? So if the economic meltdown only occurs after Bush step down from power and when Obama is in power, you won't blame Bush and his policies for the economic meltdown?
Was it some people who expressed their frustration with the ruling party for a long period, or can you not accept the opinion of nearly 14 million, who expressed through their vote in Japan’s general election (*2) - based on news report of the count up to this hour ?
How the hell do you determine that the majority of the people are voting against the ruling party for staying in power for a long period of time based on a few interviews? Can you seriously tell me that five or ten interviews is enough to say 14 million voters are voting based on the fact that the ruling party has been in power for 50 over years?
Same question is being asked with Singapore - why have we tolerated this situation for 52 years - since 1957, or 44 years since 1965 ?
Is it not due to the same old "kiasu and kiasi" over cautious attitude of not facing a new world boldly, and believing in the same old fears that the incumbents continue to exploit for their own benefit ?
The unemployment rate has hit 5.7% in Japan now, and they have been in similar economic limbo for the last ten years.
Should we wait for the same set of circumstances before we make the choice, or watch another US$100 Billion unaccounted loss from our reserves before we wake up to the new realities ?
You are the one who defended Thatcher by saying it is the fault of the recession that increased unemplyoment rate in UK, yet you are backpedalling and saying that we should vote the PAP out of office due to the fact that we are in an recession?