Singapore's economy emerges from recession in Q2
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Originally posted by Fantagf:
Singapore says economy jumps 20 percent in second quarter, raises 2009 growth forecast
By Alex Kennedy, Associated Press Writer
On Monday July 13, 2009, 11:45 pm EDT
SINGAPORE (AP) -- Singapore's economy grew for the first time in a year, soaring 20 percent in the second quarter, a sign Asia is emerging from the global slump.
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Gross domestic product jumped an annualized, seasonally adjusted 20.4 percent in the three months through June from the previous quarter, the Trade and Industry Ministry said Tuesday in a statement. It said GDP fell 3.7 percent from year earlier after a 9.6 percent drop in the first quarter.
The ministry now expects the Southeast Asian city-state's economy to shrink between 4 percent and 6 percent this year, better than its previous forecast of a contraction between 6 percent and 9 percent.
"The Singapore economy is back and back with a vengeance," said Robert Prior-Wandesforde, senior Asia economist for HSBC in Singapore. "We very much doubt that today's Singapore GDP release will be the last in Asia to provide a sizable upside surprise."
The island's economy -- which relies on exports, finance and tourism -- had contracted the previous four quarters as it reeled from a collapse in global trade triggered by the financial crisis. An annualized 16.4 percent drop in the October-December period was the nadir of its deepest recession since splitting from Malaysia in 1965.
Singapore is the first major Asia economy to report second quarter GDP results. The second quarter GDP estimate was calculated using data largely from April and May and is subject to revision.
The ministry revised its first quarter economic figures to an annualized contraction of 12.7 percent from its initial estimate in April of a 19.7 percent contraction.
A surge in pharmaceutical production helped boost growth in the second quarter. Manufacturing fell 1.5 percent from a year ago compared to a 24 percent contraction in the first quarter. Construction rose 18 percent in the second quarter while services dropped 5.1 percent.
The ministry warned that the rebound in manufacturing could wane over the rest of the year.
"A sizable part of Singapore's manufacturing uptick came from a spike in biomedical manufacturing output and electronics inventory restocking, both of which may not be sustained," the ministry said.
Demand for exports from the U.S., Europe and Japan remains weak, but Singapore's sales to Indonesia, Malaysia and China have picked up, said Irvin Seah, an economist with DBS bank in Singapore.
"The main driver for this recovery has been our exports to the region," Seah said. "We're seeing strong demand from Asia, especially China."
"Asia is showing signs that it is able to drive its own demand, which is a good sign for the region's growth."
The first paragraph shouted loudly the excitement, and as one read further into the paragraphs that follow, the reality begin to sink in to those more alert at carefully reading the news with a heavy pinch of salt, while those too lazy to filter the too good news with caution will flip with joy.Note that as one read deeper into the text, the author has made several careful retracing of the enthusiasm first screamed out.
Note the following:
1. Singapore is the first major Asia economy to report second quarter GDP results. The second quarter GDP estimate was calculated using data largely from April and May and is subject to revision
The hoopla for the second quarter was based only on estimates using data from April and May, when the full quarter that should have included June was not included.
2. A surge in pharmaceutical production helped boost growth in the second quarter. Manufacturing fell 1.5 percent from a year ago compared to a 24 percent contraction in the first quarter. Construction rose 18 percent in the second quarter while services dropped 5.1 percent.
The ministry warned that the rebound in manufacturing could wane over the rest of the year.
Note the confusing comparison of the Manufacturing data that compared to its Year to Year performance a year ago, as well as to its performance in the first quarter.
Still a note of caution was again made to dampen the loud enthusiasm that caused the loud hoopla.
3. "A sizable part of Singapore's manufacturing uptick came from a spike in biomedical manufacturing output and electronics inventory restocking, both of which may not be sustained," the ministry said.
The third advisory of caution that the manufacturing of the star performer in biomedical manufacturing output and electronics may not be sustainable.
4. Demand for exports from the U.S., Europe and Japan remains weak, but Singapore's sales to Indonesia, Malaysia and China have picked up, said Irvin Seah, an economist with DBS bank in Singapore.
While Singapore's sales to the region have picked up, these cannot possibly replace the larger markets of US, Europe and Japan that have a combined market that is far bigger then what the region has been able to help sustain Singapore stellar growth over the years.
This alone would have given a reality shake-up that would have made the hoopla a total irresponsible announcement that delude less informed Singaporeans.
We will need to ask - if this is the best that can be produced by the sum total of all the super talents in the PAP leadership that are paid individually paid their million dollar annual wages ?
For all the boast made about the Super Talents in the ranks of the Super PAP elites, they remain as impotent as ordinary Singaporeans, who are advised to wait for the USA to pull themselves out and become the engine of growth for the world.
Obama has given his administration a time frame of 2 years for the US economy to get back on track.
Can the super talent in the PAP perform miracles, when the USA cannot turn around the USA in less time, and when Singapore's main trading partner are the USA, Europe and Japan - all three being mutually dependent on each other's economic viability and stuck in the present financial meltdown ?
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Sigh.....People, it's all about confidence. The entire global market is driven by confidence.
Planet Earth's resources are still abundant. Crops are rotting on the ground because no one wants them. Food produced are thrown away overnight because people are not buying them.
It's not that there's no money around. Trillions and zillions of dollars are no longer circulated in economies, because everyone had lost confidence, and hoarded their money. Money printed DON'T disappear into thin air!
The rich are swimming in it in their personal vaults, frightened and dare not invest. The poor are starve and hungry of it, because it did not get to their hands in earnings thru jobs.
In any case, our economy surge is largely based on pharmaceuticals, which is only reasonable due to the H1N1 scare, as more turn to bio-med products to protect themselves, fortunately which we Singapore had invested large sum in its production here, which in turn accounted for the rise in our economic earnings.
A large proportion of funds had been circulated in asia, for most asian govts had learnt alot from the recession of 97 financial crisis, amassed huge warchest of US dollars to circulate among the population, which accounted for asia's spending.
This is good news, real news based on fact and not on politics. We the people need something to cheer, and to push ourselves further to bring home food on the table.
Why pooh pah good news and spread despondency and ill feeling, when we need more such true motivation to face the uphill climb to reach our former heights, not just for ourselves, but our families, relatives and friends?
Sigh.....
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why do you try to deceive yourself thinking that there is good news when there isn't?
The classified section of straits times use to be full of jobs. Nowadays it is only 3 pages of jobs and 90% of it is F&B and those part time and temp jobs.
Is this a sign that the economy is improving?
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Originally posted by Atobe:
The first paragraph shouted loudly the excitement, and as one read further into the paragraphs that follow, the reality begin to sink in to those more alert at carefully reading the news with a heavy pinch of salt, while those too lazy to filter the too good news with caution will flip with joy.Note that as one read deeper into the text, the author has made several careful retracing of the enthusiasm first screamed out.
Note the following:
1. Singapore is the first major Asia economy to report second quarter GDP results. The second quarter GDP estimate was calculated using data largely from April and May and is subject to revision
The hoopla for the second quarter was based only on estimates using data from April and May, when the full quarter that should have included June was not included.
2. A surge in pharmaceutical production helped boost growth in the second quarter. Manufacturing fell 1.5 percent from a year ago compared to a 24 percent contraction in the first quarter. Construction rose 18 percent in the second quarter while services dropped 5.1 percent.
The ministry warned that the rebound in manufacturing could wane over the rest of the year.
Note the confusing comparison of the Manufacturing data that compared to its Year to Year performance a year ago, as well as to its performance in the first quarter.
Still a note of caution was again made to dampen the loud enthusiasm that caused the loud hoopla.
3. "A sizable part of Singapore's manufacturing uptick came from a spike in biomedical manufacturing output and electronics inventory restocking, both of which may not be sustained," the ministry said.
The third advisory of caution that the manufacturing of the star performer in biomedical manufacturing output and electronics may not be sustainable.
4. Demand for exports from the U.S., Europe and Japan remains weak, but Singapore's sales to Indonesia, Malaysia and China have picked up, said Irvin Seah, an economist with DBS bank in Singapore.
While Singapore's sales to the region have picked up, these cannot possibly replace the larger markets of US, Europe and Japan that have a combined market that is far bigger then what the region has been able to help sustain Singapore stellar growth over the years.
This alone would have given a reality shake-up that would have made the hoopla a total irresponsible announcement that delude less informed Singaporeans.
We will need to ask - if this is the best that can be produced by the sum total of all the super talents in the PAP leadership that are paid individually paid their million dollar annual wages ?
For all the boast made about the Super Talents in the ranks of the Super PAP elites, they remain as impotent as ordinary Singaporeans, who are advised to wait for the USA to pull themselves out and become the engine of growth for the world.
Obama has given his administration a time frame of 2 years for the US economy to get back on track.
Can the super talent in the PAP perform miracles, when the USA cannot turn around the USA in less time, and when Singapore's main trading partner are the USA, Europe and Japan - all three being mutually dependent on each other's economic viability and stuck in the present financial meltdown ?
Frankly, i have lost faith in the ruling party. I don't think they deserve any more chance to continue their leadership.
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Originally posted by cliffton:
why do you try to deceive yourself thinking that there is good news when there isn't?
The classified section of straits times use to be full of jobs. Nowadays it is only 3 pages of jobs and 90% of it is F&B and those part time and temp jobs.
Is this a sign that the economy is improving?
Some people just love to live in denial, can't be helped.
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all sporeans already disilluioned with not enough food,,,,,,their lies wont convince,,,its money now that talks!i doubt they can offer 10k/person for their precious vote.
think the pap just offer a few hundred dollars n a few bottles of papsi n think u vote fer them.cheap deals,,,cheAP FUTURE.
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GDP again? GDP doesn't means the citizen will 100% benefit from it. If we are to compare GDP, then we are only 4xxx lower than Japan's GDP per capita in 2008. So, our economy is almost as good as theirs? However, Tokyo's GDP alone is 4x of ours. So, is GDP that reliable?
Malaysia GDP in 2008 per capital is only 14xxx, so are their poorer than us? Yet again, if we use KL GDP, ermmm, i can't find KL GDP, anyway, it should be that much different from us.
GDP don't determine the citizen's standard of living, it will never will. We can have our GDP double the next year but we are still getting the same paid and no bonus.
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One easy way to see
SPH profit down 5% ==> advertisers not popping out ;)
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told u to forget about SPH, dun be greedy for those small chicken feet dividends.
upturn the downturn
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Originally posted by Lu5ck:
GDP again? GDP doesn't means the citizen will 100% benefit from it. If we are to compare GDP, then we are only 4xxx lower than Japan's GDP per capita in 2008. So, our economy is almost as good as theirs? However, Tokyo's GDP alone is 4x of ours. So, is GDP that reliable?
Malaysia GDP in 2008 per capital is only 14xxx, so are their poorer than us? Yet again, if we use KL GDP, ermmm, i can't find KL GDP, anyway, it should be that much different from us.
GDP don't determine the citizen's standard of living, it will never will. We can have our GDP double the next year but we are still getting the same paid and no bonus.
GDP stand for what you know or not??? dun google hor -
dont know GDP?
can call LHL and ask lor..
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1% GDP equal how much money you know or not??? dunno dun talk so much lah...
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Originally posted by noahnoah:
dont know GDP?
can call LHL and ask lor..
LHL said it is Government Development Property -
Can't be certain that we are recovering..The spike in biomed may just be due to that of the H1N1. May taper off soon if vaccines available or the pandemic cool down.
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you cant really trust wat they say...
everyday say diff things 1...
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yep lor me confuse also
few days say down
then up again
then later down
tehn up again
Up or down until
they themselves confuse also
I only know when i go NTUC
i never get to see prices really down
so i always go to sheng siong
"All for you one de"
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Originally posted by noahnoah:
yep lor me confuse also
few days say down
then up again
then later down
tehn up again
Up or down until
they themselves confuse also
I only know when i go NTUC
i never get to see prices really down
so i always go to sheng siong
"All for you one de"
upturn, downturn, sideturn, upside turn, backside turn...somemore what style you want leh?? -
money spent on construction e.g. lift for HDB car park?
so construction sector got 18% growth
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Originally posted by seyKai:
money spent on construction e.g. lift for HDB car park?
so construction sector got 18% growth
ya, growth by 18% from previous -20%, so still -2%, u think got growth or not?? -
anyway, i had a feeling of the boy who cries wolf is at play
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Does it feel like a recession yet?
More to come, I believe
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Originally posted by eagle:
Does it feel like a recession yet?
More to come, I believe
recession or notI still will go eat katong laska..
fried hokkien mee..
Recession no need to zzz?
no need to eat?
no need to watch movies
Stay at home and rot?
Life is the same
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Originally posted by noahnoah:
recession or notI still will go eat katong laska..
fried hokkien mee..
Recession no need to zzz?
no need to eat?
no need to watch movies
Stay at home and rot?
Life is the same
actually recession, more sex will be performed and more babies will be born, cos people got more time mah, and most will get fatter and fatter.....Bak kut teh chen chen soup one please!!! -
anyway..
this is not the first recession in Sg
and it will not be the last also~
It is just a normal cycle that u and me
have to go throught~
while u and me busy working
Rich Buyers pay ppl to Q up
for a condo that worth millions
or make noise
What the fish!! Why my choice unit sold Out!!
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those who have jobs still carry on as normal. its only those who are jobless or retrenched, like 40-50 years old workers, have problems finding jobs.
or those companies who are in danger of bankrupting or collapsing, then the workers should be worried for their ricebowl, esp the older workers.