recession where are we now
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Originally posted by Ah Chia:
You dare to contradict the guru?
You guru or Lee Kuan Yew guru?
You not guru like Lee Kuan Yew I think you better shut up.
I only follow the guru.
Contradict? I think you misunderstood. LKY's human. And guru is supposed to be some kinda expert right. I respect the old man, but for MM Lee, what he did was predicting.U mean u do not see the recession effect in Singapore?
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we are not out of the wood yet.
ever since this crisi unfold, the last thing we should trust are those financial advisors, financial institution govt instituions etc.
their interest are counterproductive against private investors or individual investors.
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financial advisors & brokers are basically salesman.
they have a target to hit and so they peddle their policies to sell to consumers. they are not really interested in your wellbeing.
some companies are really target oriented. if anyone who fails to hit the target, out you go. this is the industry norm I suppose, in banking, insurance, investment, properties etc.
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Originally posted by eagle:
Did they say this?
Stock market has little relation to how economy is.
What I just said was in relation to what I learned from EW (Elliot Wave) principle as stated above. Primary A wave took about 15~18 mths from sti 3906 to sti 1455 in march 09... So we can expect Pri B to be about 0.618 or 1.618 the time taken by Pri A... And I make a first guess of 0.618, which means about next year. Primary C also about 0.618 or 1.618 the time taken by Pri A.... So... ;)
No, how could the million dollar talented ministers commit themselves in such direct and exact scientific manner ?Our super talented Ministers are great at creating the big picture over the longer term - nearly similar to the statements that you attributed to EW that :
I'm estimating that the stock market will actually bottom out in 2011 March...
But the current upwave might last till next year march... However, short term wise, there might be a down wave till 2050
Stock market bottom out in March 2011...yet the current upwave will last till next year March ?
Does the slide begin from March 2010 ?
'Short term wise' - when the prediction is that 'there might be a down wave till 2050' ?
The period - from 2009 till 2050 - is surely quite a short term by any brilliant measure.
Is this not a clever self-indulgent "Art in Obfuscating" - similar to the Singapore million dollar talents appointed as Ministers ?
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Originally posted by Atobe:
No, how could the million dollar talented ministers commit themselves in such direct and exact scientific manner ?Our super talented Ministers are great at creating the big picture over the longer term - nearly similar to the statements that you attributed to EW that :
I'm estimating that the stock market will actually bottom out in 2011 March...
But the current upwave might last till next year march... However, short term wise, there might be a down wave till 2050
Stock market bottom out in March 2011...yet the current upwave will last till next year March ?
Does the slide begin from March 2010 ?
'Short term wise' - when the prediction is that 'there might be a down wave till 2050' ?
The period - from 2009 till 2050 - is surely quite a short term by any brilliant measure.
Is this not a clever self-indulgent "Art in Obfuscating" - similar to the Singapore million dollar talents appointed as Ministers ?
nvm... (2050 means STI reach 2050, and yes, it's my mistake for not stating properly and clearly to spoonfeed people who are clearly not interested in what's happening in STI and/or profiting from it)
Looks like it's useless to share what I learned to people here. Everything from me also can become related to the ministers...
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Originally posted by marcteng:
financial advisors & brokers are basically salesman.
they have a target to hit and so they peddle their policies to sell to consumers. they are not really interested in your wellbeing.
some companies are really target oriented. if anyone who fails to hit the target, out you go. this is the industry norm I suppose, in banking, insurance, investment, properties etc.
yalor, no wonder so many fresh U grad on the street selling financial products, I want to walk, they keep pestering me, aiyo, me young young where got money to invest,..i see them seibei cham, study so high, begging in the street with tie and smart clothing.hmmmm! so more their name card all title very big, what financial chief consultant, policies manager, finanical specialist, Investment Director...etc etc wha lau,, all bogus titles lor. Later me drive BM go home, they all take MRT
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Originally posted by eagle:
nvm... (2050 means STI reach 2050, and yes, it's my mistake for not stating properly and clearly to spoonfeed people who are clearly not interested in what's happening in STI and/or profiting from it)
Looks like it's useless to share what I learned to people here. Everything from me also can become related to the ministers...
aiya, their uterior motive is to spread the propaganda on the bad of LKY, nothing else. You talk so much about share and stock to them also no use. But i am reading. Me IPO member ok
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recession or not..
one still need to work lor
recession work more harder lor
Me also bo chap recession one
I just do what i suppose to do
Nike:
Just do it!!
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Recession is a time for all parties to come into a resting period, be it the employers, the govt or the employees, all will be having a recess, that's all.
You remember our school days recess time or not, a time to eat, rest and talk ccok. I remember i used to save $2 grandma gave me for my expenses, then after school go shopping centres with my mates to laze around looking for chio chio boys. Sometime, we also went tp changi airport to study...lucky no H1N1 then. This is the meaning of recession.
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Originally posted by noahnoah:
recession or not..
one still need to work lor
recession work more harder lor
Me also bo chap recession one
I just do what i suppose to do
Nike:
Just do it!!
ya,Life is short!
Play hard!
Reebok
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Originally posted by eagle:
nvm... (2050 means STI reach 2050, and yes, it's my mistake for not stating properly and clearly to spoonfeed people who are clearly not interested in what's happening in STI and/or profiting from it)
Looks like it's useless to share what I learned to people here. Everything from me also can become related to the ministers...
I am listening.
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Originally posted by sgdiehard:
I am listening.
u can hear him??? -
Originally posted by novelltie:
1) there are people who actually "knew" the recession was coming in mid 2008 when property prices was pushed up beyond comprehension. these 2) group of rich individuals then held their money back, refusing to invest in crazy priced properties... they were waiting for the fall and when it arrived in November 2008, they kept tabs on the valuation.
the screening period was from January to March, this is so called the stability period. prices will not fall too low from that benchmark after March and then the craze sets in. those who have "saved" enough money for property investment came in strongly, pushing the market. the 100% sale of 8@Woodleigh only proves this theory that 3) people just needed to buy something for the sake of buying as their money was kept too long in the bank. the project was situated at a questionable plot of land where its tenure: 99 years old leasehold. the project just behind, in less than 50 metres away, The Blossoms, is Freehold.
yet 8@Woodleigh is selling at a freehold price. 3) why? only those buyers can answer. nearer to MRT, yes... but at what price? is Woodleigh MRT station even opened yet? nope but i'll applaud the sales team for such a magnificent feat. 100% sales to idiots.... sigh... recession? there are still a handful of people not even slightly affected like those in medical, petroleum and even F&B...
but my personal opinion; if you wish to invest in properties, hold that money... the bubble will burst soon, it will not last as the economy has not shown significant improvement and shares has dropped in the recent days... if you wish to buy for own stay... find a value for money project and preferably, Freehold...
I agree with what you had said, but there's a few points to note:
1) In fact, analsysts had already "predicted" that a recession was looming when Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ( when it wasn't in the reds) were instructed by Bill Clinton, under his rule, to ease morgage requirements and pre-requisites. This is to allow more Americans to "live their "American Dream".2) There were many intelligent but poor economists in England, and i suspect many around the world, that fore-warned the people of the imminen reccession. However, they were not Warren Buffets or George Soros, rather they were "no-bodies" that is saying that the sky was falling. Hence many scorned their warnings.
3) That is true to a certain extent. However, it is more towards of jumping the bandwagon. Typical Singaporeans are very "kiasu", when their neighbours or friends buy a new house, and brag that the property market is on the upswing, etc etc, they do not want to lose out. Furthermore, there were a slew of positive market sentiments, which many believed that " the worst is behind us ". However, it is merely an increase of consumer confidence. The economy has not seen a technical recovery.
In my opinion, the global economy would only see a recovery in 2013. However, due to the positive upbeat, this can be brought back to 2011, depending on how long this wave lasts.
Virgin post :)
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Originally posted by angel7030:
u can hear him???I can read with my eyes but not with my mind.
I can listen with my ears but not with my heart.
Listening means read and hear with the intention to learn and appreciate.
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sigh...have we all learnt nothing from this crisis?
If stats, facts and number crunching can be relied upon, this crisis would never have happened, or even averted. It failed everyone, including the influential numero uno of monetary policy - US Fed Reserve.
It's all about CONFIDENCE. How confident are you of the US dollar and the value of your own national dollar for trade and exchange of goods, today and tomorrow?
Human confidence does not follow pre-set alogorithms that can be determined or adhered to. There is no known formula to chart it' s progress or the lack. It can move and defy all laws of gravity, or it can simply sink overnight at the latest dismal natural calamities affecting Earth.
Therefore, whether we are out of recession or not, market confidence will be the sole determinant and indicatr - and it will be spending. When we all spend, we will be out of recession. Properties, goods and services on the uprise will be healthy indicators of recovery, even if job stats are still low.
Those holding jobs are the ones with the power to spend and full recovery will depend on them to create opportunities to open up the labour pool requirement for more growth and expansion- more jobs.
Confidence and spending. They are the true indicators. Human ultimately have needs.
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True. However do take note of your surroundings. Shops being flooded with people, showrooms being flooded too and more cars being on the road. Isn't that kind of spending and confidence enough?
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So, the evidences are there for all to see, if we have recovered, or on the road to recovery. Or do we need to personally be able to afford a ferrari before we can claim recovery?
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Originally posted by 4.Sirius:
I agree with what you had said, but there's a few points to note:
1) In fact, analsysts had already "predicted" that a recession was looming when Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ( when it wasn't in the reds) were instructed by Bill Clinton, under his rule, to ease morgage requirements and pre-requisites. This is to allow more Americans to "live their "American Dream".2) There were many intelligent but poor economists in England, and i suspect many around the world, that fore-warned the people of the imminen reccession. However, they were not Warren Buffets or George Soros, rather they were "no-bodies" that is saying that the sky was falling. Hence many scorned their warnings.
3) That is true to a certain extent. However, it is more towards of jumping the bandwagon. Typical Singaporeans are very "kiasu", when their neighbours or friends buy a new house, and brag that the property market is on the upswing, etc etc, they do not want to lose out. Furthermore, there were a slew of positive market sentiments, which many believed that " the worst is behind us ". However, it is merely an increase of consumer confidence. The economy has not seen a technical recovery.
In my opinion, the global economy would only see a recovery in 2013. However, due to the positive upbeat, this can be brought back to 2011, depending on how long this wave lasts.
Virgin post :)
Congrats on your virgin post :D
The worst is indeed not over yet. Many has forgotten the 1998~2003 period. It's a fact that economy goes in cycles (abt 10 to 11 years cycle by empirical data). But in the very long run, it will be an uptrend, sort of a y=x sin x curve.
As what I said earlier about EW principle, my calculations using fibonacci tells me that the "true bottom" for the current down is somewhere in 2011 and beyond... The usual saying is that stock markets precede economy by about 6 months, so if we follow that saying, I do expect end-2011 to start-2012 for the economy to really start recovering...
Have mentioned more in Money forum before.
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Originally posted by 4.Sirius:
True. However do take note of your surroundings. Shops being flooded with people, showrooms being flooded too and more cars being on the road. Isn't that kind of spending and confidence enough?
I still believe that the full impact is not here yet, which is the main reason why I'm working hard to saving more, and investing mostly in defensive dividend-yielding equities, e.g. EGW, telco, ST Engg, SPH. Recession a not, people still need to use gas, water, electricity... many still use newspapers, telephone, and SAF still need ST Engg to provide equipments... No need to complain about rise in prices, because any rise to increase profits will result in higher DPU for the equities; I get the 'rebates' back.
A lot of spending now comes probably from the huge corrective Primary Wave B that many has profitted from after entering in Mar lows.
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Originally posted by eagle:
I still believe that the full impact is not here yet, which is the main reason why I'm working hard to saving more, and investing mostly in defensive dividend-yielding equities, e.g. EGW, telco, ST Engg, SPH. Recession a not, people still need to use gas, water, electricity... many still use newspapers, telephone, and SAF still need ST Engg to provide equipments... No need to complain about rise in prices, because any rise to increase profits will result in higher DPU for the equities; I get the 'rebates' back.
A lot of spending now comes probably from the huge corrective Primary Wave B that many has profitted from after entering in Mar lows.
Huh!! what!!! u better shift your portofolios to Banks blue chips hor, i am giving u tips.
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Originally posted by sgdiehard:
I can read with my eyes but not with my mind.
I can listen with my ears but not with my heart.
Listening means read and hear with the intention to learn and appreciate.
Aiya, so lor sor one, i thot your compu got install voice recon software mah...wha lau, ask only, talk all peoms story... -
Originally posted by eagle:
Congrats on your virgin post :D
The worst is indeed not over yet. Many has forgotten the 1998~2003 period. It's a fact that economy goes in cycles (abt 10 to 11 years cycle by empirical data). But in the very long run, it will be an uptrend, sort of a y=x sin x curve.
As what I said earlier about EW principle, my calculations using fibonacci tells me that the "true bottom" for the current down is somewhere in 2011 and beyond... The usual saying is that stock markets precede economy by about 6 months, so if we follow that saying, I do expect end-2011 to start-2012 for the economy to really start recovering...
Have mentioned more in Money forum before.
what EW princple or calculation, siao liao, even char kuay teow ah pek and pub gal also know the trends, that is why i said, education create anti -risk taker in people -
Originally posted by angel7030:
Huh!! what!!! u better shift your portofolios to Banks blue chips hor, i am giving u tips.
Pls provide fundamental reasons for doing so. If I expect the true bottom to be at 2011, I will only enter banks at that time
It's always better to earn less than to lose money.
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Originally posted by angel7030:
what EW princple or calculation, siao liao, even char kuay teow ah pek and pub gal also know the trends, that is why i said, education create anti -risk taker in peopleSo what do u think is the trend now? Only 3 answers, up, down or flat. What is your short-term, mid-term expectations?
Blindly taking risks is a foolish thing. One should take calculated risks, not just any risks. I have been holding most of my cash since I warned about the rising wedge pattern in the thread: Beware entering the stock mkt now
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Originally posted by eagle:
Pls provide fundamental reasons for doing so. If I expect the true bottom to be at 2011, I will only enter banks at that time
It's always better to earn less than to lose money.
2011?Where u got the news from?
From some banks that going to collapse soon?