Reuters Analysis: PAP gov seeks to manage political change
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http://www.forbes.com/feeds/reuters/2009/06/27/2009-06-28T022401Z_01_SIN501801_RTRIDST_0_SINGAPORE-POLITICS-ANALYSIS-PIX.html
Forbes.com, 27 Jun 2009
ANALYSIS-Singapore seeks to manage political change
Resourceful, but resource-scarce, Singapore has nimbly changed with the times in its first 50 years of self-governance.
But the global economic slowdown has thrown the trade-dependent city-state into its worst recession and issues from unemployment to huge losses at two sovereign wealth funds have set fresh challenges for the People's Action Party (PAP), which marked a half-century in power this month.
Analysts say future risks include political change after the current generation of ageing leaders, possibly even from a split in the ruling party, and external threats such as conflict with neighbours and competition from cheaper manufacturing centres.
"It won't be as stable and as unchangeable as people think," said Roman Scott, who runs a private equity firm in Singapore. He is bullish on the country's long-term prospects, but said terror attacks or political changes were the biggest risks.
"Even in Singapore, nothing lasts forever."
Singapore is favoured as a base for its dependability, efficient bureaucracy and clean environment. Few investors expect shocks in a region where stability can quickly turn to chaos.
"I looked at all the cities in the world and decided to move to Singapore," said American investor Jim Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1970. Rogers is bearish on the U.S. dollar and pound but expects the Singapore dollar to stay strong because of political and economic competence.
SUCCESSION
Singapore's stability rests on the vision of Cambridge-trained Lee Kuan Yew, who came to power in June 1959 after leading the PAP to its first general election victory. The party has never lost more than four seats in any poll since.
The government recently offered to nominate more opposition members to parliament, a move analysts said could be a release valve for criticism but may also stimulate some fresh ideas.
"It needs to accept a level of accountability and debate that it currently will not do," said Bob Broadfoot of Political & Economic Risk Consultancy.
The government has been looking for younger stars, and cadres have started speaking about Singapore after Lee Kuan Yew.
Kishore Mahbubani, Singapore's former United Nations envoy, saw a two-thirds probability Singapore would make a "smooth and seamless transition" after the retirement of octogenarian Lee.
This was due to a "deep institutionalisation" of the values of Singapore's first generation of leaders, though corruption would have to be kept at bay, he told a recent seminar. Singapore is rated the least corrupt country in the region.
"We don't see any dramatic or unstable political change in Singapore in the coming 10 years," said Vincent Ho of Fitch Ratings, which gives Singapore its top sovereign rating of AAA.
Pierre Cailleteau, managing director for sovereign risk at Moody's ( MCO - news - people ) Investor Service, said its AAA rating for Singapore hinged on strong financial fundamentals, a pro-business stance and the ability to adapt to changing economic conditions.
"We don't look at the rulers of a country, but the way the country is ruled. For Singapore, we don't see reasons to believe there will be any change in the degree of predictability if there is a change in leadership," he said.
Even if future Singapore leaders became more vulnerable to public pressure and engaged in populist policies at the expense of economic goals, the shift would take place over a period of years rather than months, he added.
DIVERSIFICATION
As it faces up to the global downturn, the government has just set up an "Economic Strategies Committee" comprising ministers and business leaders, to fine-tune plans for growth, as it aims to stay a hub for multinationals and trading.
Singapore has already been looking to wean itself off manufacturing by developing service industries such as wealth management and tourism, with two casino resorts due by next year.
It also hired ex-BHP Billiton ( BBL - news - people ) CEO Chip Goodyear to run state investor Temasek, replacing the prime minister's wife Ho Ching. Goodyear is expected to look at investments in the resource sector, after the fund was burned by high profile investments in Western banks in the past year that created discontent among Singaporeans worried about the state's savings.
Analysts say the country will continue to diversify into high value sectors such as nanotechnology, biomedical research, and renewable energy. But it is expected to remain dependent on overseas demand given its small 4.6 million population.
Among Lee Kuan Yew's favourite topics is urging Singaporeans to have more babies. But this has not had much success, leaving the state looking to foreign labourers from China and other Asian countries, plus Western professionals, risking future social tensions as the population mix changes.
Singapore saw deadly race riots in the 1950s and 1960s.
Analysts say Singapore will have to be more politically open and culturally tolerant to attract rich migrants and to prevent a brain drain of young local talent.
"If you want to be a world city, you have to take on some of the characteristics of New York and London, a lot more diversity, a lot more tolerance, and a lot more openness," Scott said. (Additional reporting by Kevin Lim; Editing by Neil Chatterjee and Bill Tarrant)
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"If you want to be a world city, you have to take on some of the characteristics of New York and London, a lot more diversity, a lot more tolerance, and a lot more openness,
My view is that a "world city" is only for those states who are big in territory and population.
States that have small area and small population should not attempt at a "world city".
It would be a suicide to nationhood.
That is my opinion.
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Originally posted by Ah Chia:
My view is that a "world city" is only for those states who are big in territory and population.
States that have small area and small population should not attempt at a "world city".
It would be a suicide to nationhood.
That is my opinion.
u can keep that opinon to yourself during your toilet break.no joke, you are still reading those Jewish new yorkers bastards who lost and cheat so much of the others money, i have stop reading it for the sake of getting cheat by them. These guys are real liar and cheater, they can take your money and still laugh at you for your stupidity. OMG!! i dun believe you are reading them.
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The longer they wait for next election, the better it is for opposition.
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I quote from Atobe "To overcome any possibility of the "freak results" that MM LKY had said of Singaporeans decision to vote in an Alternative Political Party - the PAP had opened the flood gates to new immigrants who will at least vote PAP in the next one or two elections - simply out of gratitude from the change of circumstances in their lives."
I agree with Atobe on this. Contrary to what many people believe, PAP has long anticipated the day where citizen no longer be swayed by its idealism.
Kishore Mahbubani, in the article written to The Straits Times ''Can Singapore Fail?" said and I quote him.
"Ïn 1981, Singapore's long-ruling PAP suffered its first defeat at the polls in many years, even though the contest was in a single constituency. I asked Dr Goh K S, one of Singapore's three great founding fathers and the architect of Singapore's economic miracle, why the PAP lost. He replied, "Kishore, we failed because we did not even conceive of the possibility of failure'.
.......And as Dr Goh perceived. the only way to prevent failure is to conceive of failure."
PAP has long anticipated the day where the citizen no long associates PAP with the "wow" factor.
Contrary to what some people think and with the influx of foreigners who are grateful to PAP for lifting their status, from a third world citizen to a first's, their newly bestowed voting power will ensure the next election to remain status quo. -
Originally posted by deepak.c:
The longer they wait for next election, the better it is for opposition.
they are taking it abit longer because of cloning their own oppositions -
Originally posted by 4sg:
I quote from Atobe "To overcome any possibility of the "freak results" that MM LKY had said of Singaporeans decision to vote in an Alternative Political Party - the PAP had opened the flood gates to new immigrants who will at least vote PAP in the next one or two elections - simply out of gratitude from the change of circumstances in their lives."
I agree with Atobe on this. Contrary to what many people believe, PAP has long anticipated the day where citizen no longer be swayed by its idealism.
Kishore Mahbubani, in the article written to The Straits Times ''Can Singapore Fail?" said and I quote him.
"Ïn 1981, Singapore's long-ruling PAP suffered its first defeat at the polls in many years, even though the contest was in a single constituency. I asked Dr Goh K S, one of Singapore's three great founding fathers and the architect of Singapore's economic miracle, why the PAP lost. He replied, "Kishore, we failed because we did not even conceive of the possibility of failure'.
.......And as Dr Goh perceived. the only way to prevent failure is to conceive of failure."
PAP has long anticipated the day where the citizen no long associates PAP with the "wow" factor.
Contrary to what some people think and with the influx of foreigners who are grateful to PAP for lifting their status, from a third world citizen to a first's, their newly bestowed voting power will ensure the next election to remain status quo.If u read the article carefully, there seemed to have mentioned about the brain drain. I guess if the locals are not producing enough babies, they ask those immigrants to produce babies. Many of the locals migrate to other countries n the possibility of them coming back is small.
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Originally posted by will4:
If u read the article carefully, there seemed to have mentioned about the brain drain. I guess if the locals are not producing enough babies, they ask those immigrants to produce babies. Many of the locals migrate to other countries n the possibility of them coming back is small.
i believe brain drain is only a blanket of the problem, what you see in some of our Ministers or MPs, they dun even need to have brain to stay in power. Loyalty and obedience is the key, if you are too clever, they may not want you. -
Originally posted by 4sg:
I quote from Atobe "To overcome any possibility of the "freak results" that MM LKY had said of Singaporeans decision to vote in an Alternative Political Party - the PAP had opened the flood gates to new immigrants who will at least vote PAP in the next one or two elections - simply out of gratitude from the change of circumstances in their lives."
I agree with Atobe on this. Contrary to what many people believe, PAP has long anticipated the day where citizen no longer be swayed by its idealism.
Kishore Mahbubani, in the article written to The Straits Times ''Can Singapore Fail?" said and I quote him.
"Ïn 1981, Singapore's long-ruling PAP suffered its first defeat at the polls in many years, even though the contest was in a single constituency. I asked Dr Goh K S, one of Singapore's three great founding fathers and the architect of Singapore's economic miracle, why the PAP lost. He replied, "Kishore, we failed because we did not even conceive of the possibility of failure'.
.......And as Dr Goh perceived. the only way to prevent failure is to conceive of failure."
PAP has long anticipated the day where the citizen no long associates PAP with the "wow" factor.
Contrary to what some people think and with the influx of foreigners who are grateful to PAP for lifting their status, from a third world citizen to a first's, their newly bestowed voting power will ensure the next election to remain status quo.The brain drain coupled with more n more graduates leaving n never come back could worsen the problem. For those new immgrants, they might want to earn money n later go back to their countries.
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Originally posted by will4:
If u read the article carefully, there seemed to have mentioned about the brain drain. I guess if the locals are not producing enough babies, they ask those immigrants to produce babies. Many of the locals migrate to other countries n the possibility of them coming back is small.
I agree. That article covered wide topics. But we have to see it in the context of a govt controlled newspaper with the author being pro govt.
The writer has put snippets of wisdom and suggestion here and there. But clearly, the quote I gave, clearly devulge into the thinking and strategy of our govt. -
Originally posted by will4:
The brain drain coupled with more n more graduates leaving n never come back could worsen the problem. For those new immgrants, they might want to earn money n later go back to their countries.
Brain drain is not a factor in this new liberalisation world, at any one point, you can consult or seek advice from a good economist or professor by paying him. Same as to you seeking a treatment with a foreign base hospital that is specialist in it, you dun have to bring the whole hosipital or the doctors here.In fact, our economy or what we are today is also a blessing of foreign expert advises, if you depend on our Ministers, who are good only in gathering votes with dines and wines, i dun think we are what we are today.
The very fact of seeking advices from smart people outside of here give you a better picture of out of the box thinking whereby these peoples have no self interest nor selfish thinking or so called inward thinking thereby jeopardise the blue print for the future
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Originally posted by will4:
The brain drain coupled with more n more graduates leaving n never come back could worsen the problem. For those new immgrants, they might want to earn money n later go back to their countries.
In the 80s and 90s, when migration was the 'ín' thing, the govt tried shaming people who intended to migrate. If you remember, calling them quitter. Don't take a rocket scientist to know such tact won't work.
Than they tried to get top-up from Taiwan and HK. But these people quitted even faster. It was the red passport that they were really after.
Now they are trying top-up from the SE asian region. But interacting with these new top-up, both in tertiary institution and at work, my feeling is that there are two camps.
The keen-to-integrate camp and the keen-to-influence camp. The former is a non-issue. But the latter is a big issue.
In this part of the world, the Chinese is likened to the Jew. In fact, the Chinese is called the ''Jew of the east'' - money is welcome but not the person. Look around S E Asia, except for Sg, the Chinese is a subjugated people.
I am not saying this out of malice or mischief. But talking to many of these top-up, I feel a deeper feeling of resentment or resistance of having this equation rewritten.
I feel that what our govt doing is a desperate measure considering that race is always a sensitive issue both within Sg and around the region; and considering our pop decline is among the world's lowest.
Will this new tact work? A result waiting to be seen, isn't it?
But one thing I am sure is that migration out of Sg will get to be a major issue in the near future. As China and India take centrestage, migration out will flow, not just to the western countries, but this time, to these eastern countries as well. -
Originally posted by 4sg:
In the 80s and 90s, when migration was the 'ín' thing, the govt tried shaming people who intended to migrate. If you remember, calling them quitter. Don't take a rocket scientist to know such tact won't work.
Than they tried to get top-up from Taiwan and HK. But these people quitted even faster. It was the red passport that they were really after.
Now they are trying top-up from the SE asian region. But interacting with these new top-up, both in tertiary institution and at work, my feeling is that there are two camps.
The keen-to-integrate camp and the keen-to-influence camp. The former is a non-issue. But the latter is a big issue.
In this part of the world, the Chinese is likened to the Jew. In fact, the Chinese is called the ''Jew of the east'' - money is welcome but not the person. Look around S E Asia, except for Sg, the Chinese is a subjugated people.
I am not saying this out of malice or mischief. But talking to many of these top-up, I feel a deeper feeling of resentment or resistance of having this equation rewritten.
I feel that what our govt doing is a desperate measure considering that race is always a sensitive issue both withing Sg and around the region; and considering our pop decline is among the world's lowest.
Will this new tact work? A result waiting to be seen, isn't it?
But one thing I am sure is that migration out of Sg will get to be a major issue in the near future. As China and India take centrestage, migration out will flow, not just to the western countries, but this time, to these eastern countries as well.I think in the future when India and China become the economic powerhouses that they potentially can be, there will be a reverse trend of Indians and Chinese who have settled in Singapore to go back to their own home countries. Throw in the talented Singaporeans who are disillusioned about where the country is headed, you will see the massive brain drain as they too decide to move overseas for the plethora of opportunities that China and india are offering them.
How do I know this? New citizens will face the same old problems and grouses that current localised singaporeans are facing now with issues like NS and CPF. When they weigh that against their previous home countries which I presume would have developed and modernized their cities, the choice is obvious. Presumably, they would have made their money in singapore and gone back to retire.
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Originally posted by Ah Chia:
My view is that a "world city" is only for those states who are big in territory and population.
States that have small area and small population should not attempt at a "world city".
It would be a suicide to nationhood.
That is my opinion.
Athens was only a small city state and yet, its civlising influence still continues to weave into every nation that aspires towards greatness. Singapore is no different.
Young singaporeans who had been nurtured here will always seek greener pastures, with absolute disregard to the fact that our society had nutured them, forgetting often that without the collective efforts of other citizens, past and present to provide social spending in all areas, such opportunities to even contemplate abandoning the country may not be present.
The young of Africa, Philipines, Loas, Vietnam, etc are similiar in perceptions, but unfortunately, only the rich are capable of doing so, while the rest whom professed to have Uni degrees, are neither welcomed nor accepted or even recognised for employment in many other countries of the world.
Only countries such as Singapore is an exception, an anomaly, where even children of taxi drivers can aspire and easily move to any other country, accepted for employment and sink their roots. Thanks to our forefathers who had invested and made that committment for better education and opportunities.
And being children, kids and immature youths, it is only natural for them to seek seemingly greener pastures, much influenced by western culture freely in our open society, unlike our neighbours whom use various means to curtail such culture and openess, such as western movies dubbed in local lingo, to outright ban.
Another reason for the brain drain is the peasant mentality that we were born with. Attaining wealth and a good life is rapaciously hungered for, more so by those whom are educated and mobile. Social responsibility and idealism is treated with contempt, as a dirty word and a joke.
But what is sad is when these quitters attempt to justify their abandonment to policies laid by the government, whom were freely elected by the majority of our society, trying to make themselves seemed as noble freedom fighters, and attempt to poke their noses and join in the ignorant disgruntled to stow further discord and hate within our society over issues such as NS, CPF, foreign workers, making use of those who cannot or unable to leave the country due to family or financial reasons.
Sadder still when the disgruntled believes half truths and allow the hatred to grow. Those overseas who sow such hatred are untouchable and can freely continue to live with glee, but those afflicted by their brand of discord will only suffer needlessly, by going against society rather than working with it.
No governance system is perfect. It takes time to evolve. Even Plato's Republic did not successfully materialised, or even existed in its pratical form in Athens. But its ideals were long aspired to till today. And Singapore is only still a young nation, even though envied by older societies for our peace and multi-culturalism.
Please do not presume that I tarnish the entire flock of quitters. No, I only criticise those insidious ones. Those who quit the country peacefully to pursue their aims, I fully understand, and bear them no grudge.We are a free society, and no sense in holding anyone back if they prefer a better life elsewhere. Those who remain will have to do the best they can and rebuild, work harder, and assume our birthright that our forefathers had worked hard for us.
Foreigners who wish to become our citizens will be welcomed. But do know this fact:-
1. They are educated and would not be easily duped. To assume that they will vote out of gratitude is..(laughable). They left their own society, so much for gratitude.
2. Many left their homeland due to their national political idealogies, which they know failed them, and had willingly adopted and accepted our freedoms, by pledging to our flag - our society, whomever rules.
3. There will always be some bag eggs amongst them, similiar with our quitters, but it is not the entire flock to be blamed. Some will make use of us and then run away, but not all. This is humanity, as well as those whom I had the priviledge and honour of getting to know them.
To those quitters, I wish them well and may they prosper, just as we will with the new blood of immigrants into our ranks.
I mean no mischief or malice to my ex citizens whom are not sowing discord or insidously justifying their abandonment. I only speak with freedom of speech as is my right, as a contribution to this thread, as others had freely and are welcomed to do so without curtailing anyone's elses right purely for open discussion.Peace.
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Manage political change or trying to ensure they can continue to take public money and losing and gambling with public money to foreigners at will?
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I call it a A tale of 2 generations.
The US election and the recent Iranian election demonstrate the shift of power in the voting base, the coming of age for the Xer and younger voters vs the older more structure boomer something that PAP has no influence over it.
Younger voters are better connected internally and to the outside world, all it takes is One voice to captivate voters, and the Xer yZ will flip the switch, there is no Dot....... to connect to the preceding generation.
I think the decision to allow more Opposition is a pre-emptive admission to the notion that they have no influence over this generation. There is also a risk that younger generation perceived if they are not able to change the current status quo they leave for good typical for Singaporean. PAP will find that they have negative return on social equity and the abilities to lead put will be tested again.
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As usual instead of making policies for the good of the people, they will just tell the youngsters that are disgusted with their dishonrable behavior and despotic ways to leave so that they can continue to make self serving policies.
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Originally posted by charlize:
I think in the future when India and China become the economic powerhouses that they potentially can be, there will be a reverse trend of Indians and Chinese who have settled in Singapore to go back to their own home countries. Throw in the talented Singaporeans who are disillusioned about where the country is headed, you will see the massive brain drain as they too decide to move overseas for the plethora of opportunities that China and india are offering them.
How do I know this? New citizens will face the same old problems and grouses that current localised singaporeans are facing now with issues like NS and CPF. When they weigh that against their previous home countries which I presume would have developed and modernized their cities, the choice is obvious. Presumably, they would have made their money in singapore and gone back to retire.
If the RMB and Rupees took over the green back as the main world currency, I will be standing on the street of Beijin or New delhi...u bet.
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Originally posted by AndrewPKYap:
As usual instead of making policies for the good of the people, they will just tell the youngsters that are disgusted with their dishonrable behavior and despotic ways to leave so that they can continue to make self serving policies.
Morning Uncle,As usual, they still make uterior policies to control over youngster like me, starting from PAP childcare centre, dun alway think that the govt want to take your money, all they want is control, once they get the control over you, the rest is history. UNDERSTAND.
Now be good, go take yr breakfast and medicines after that ya.
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not necessary.................although it is a common trade.......for those who stay like you Comprain and become cynical and become lazy because you already paid high taxes to govt to do their Jobs......that is SG culture.
I mean eventually many others than you is going to wake up and leave. The hold FAILURE that PAP can't keep young talented people engage and show interested in SG other than paying High Salary to keep people. But PAP can't keep up with this High wage scheme because this is really a pyramid structure. Its going to implode.
My thoughts on the changing politics in SG lies:
It is not wrong for PAP to say it needs talented and leadership to govt SG, but the REAL QUESTION is :::: Are we really getting The "Talented" and charismatics, and energetics individual to Run Singapore. Are they really giving the right message to the people?
i saw a picture of channelnewsaisa on LHL......he look like a sick old man.....If they are so talented leaders why do we still need LKY using a loudhailer to talk about Changi Airport????? this is not 1959.
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Originally posted by Arapahoe:
not necessary.................although it is a common trade.......for those who stay like you Comprain and become cynical and become lazy because you already paid high taxes to govt to do their Jobs......that is SG culture.
I mean eventually many others than you is going to wake up and leave. The hold FAILURE that PAP can't keep young talented people engage and show interested in SG other than paying High Salary to keep people. But PAP can't keep up with this High wage scheme because this is really a pyramid structure. Its going to implode.
My thoughts on the changing politics in SG lies:
It is not wrong for PAP to say it needs talented and leadership to govt SG, but the REAL QUESTION is :::: Are we really getting The "Talented" and charismatics, and energetics individual to Run Singapore. Are they really giving the right message to the people?
i saw a picture of channelnewsaisa on LHL......he look like a sick old man.....If they are so talented leaders why do we still need LKY using a loudhailer to talk about Changi Airport????? this is not 1959.
Interesting point.
About how they can't hold on to local top talents who are migrating overseas for a better life despite their system of good monetary incentives.
Clearly this sends a message that money is not everything.
But yet, they continue to harp on monetary issues first rather than passion to serve.
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Originally posted by Arapahoe:
not necessary.................although it is a common trade.......for those who stay like you Comprain and become cynical and become lazy because you already paid high taxes to govt to do their Jobs......that is SG culture.
I mean eventually many others than you is going to wake up and leave. The hold FAILURE that PAP can't keep young talented people engage and show interested in SG other than paying High Salary to keep people. But PAP can't keep up with this High wage scheme because this is really a pyramid structure. Its going to implode.
My thoughts on the changing politics in SG lies:
It is not wrong for PAP to say it needs talented and leadership to govt SG, but the REAL QUESTION is :::: Are we really getting The "Talented" and charismatics, and energetics individual to Run Singapore. Are they really giving the right message to the people?
i saw a picture of channelnewsaisa on LHL......he look like a sick old man.....If they are so talented leaders why do we still need LKY using a loudhailer to talk about Changi Airport????? this is not 1959.
you dun need talent to run a country, u just need good advisors, u go ask the saudi king and most arab rulers, they dun even know what is politics. As for Charismaticism, politicans shouldn't be that charismatic or graceful, otherwise people will just said it is just for show and your subordinates will take advantage of your charismatic character to laze around. As for Energetics, look around the world, most of the rulers are not even fit to walk the aisle and still rule with power and control. Deng Xiao Peng, thai King and many other old rulers or govt. Our politicans are consider quite healthy already.
LKY said if you stop working, you go senile and die faster. It is not that the old man wanted to interfere with politics, but merely to churn his brain cells and stay alive. Secondly, you simply cannot forgo a piece of your effort in building Singapore and then let it rot at the hands of some goondo while you are alive, aint you?
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Originally posted by charlize:
Interesting point.
About how they can't hold on to local top talents who are migrating overseas for a better life despite their system of good monetary incentives.
Clearly this sends a message that money is not everything.
But yet, they continue to harp on monetary issues first rather than passion to serve.
they can alway lure them back with laksa, chicken rice and roti prata, when i go overseas for months, i use to miss them alot, that is why i come back. But i am not a talent, talent is only in the eyes of the beholden, nobody is talent just by academy, everyone of us is talent by our own trade. As a bartender and pub servicing officer, i am talented to serve a PhD