Demographics is destiny!
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sorry guys try to embed but can't
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Most stable and primitive societies, such as the American Indians before 1492 or medieval Europe, have no great population problem because the birthrate is balanced by the death rate. In such societies both of these are high, the population is stable, and the major portion of that population is young (below eighteen years of age).
This kind of society (frequently called Population Type A) is what existed in Europe in the medieval period (say about 1400) or even in part of the early modern period (say about 1700). As a result of the increased supply of food in Europe after 1725, and of men's increased ability to save lives because of advances in sanitation and medicine after 1775, the death rate began to fall, the birthrate remained high, the population began to increase, and the number of older persons in the society increased.
This gave rise to what we have called the demographic explosion (or Population Type B). As a result of it, the population of Europe (beginning in western Europe) increased in the nineteenth century, and the major portion of that population was in the prime of life (ages eighteen to forty-five), the arms-bearing years for men and the childbearing years for women.
At this point the demographic cycle of an expanding population goes into a third stage (Population Type C) in which the birthrate also begins to fall. The reasons for this fall in the birthrate have never been explained in a satisfactory way, but, as a consequence of it, there appears a new demographic condition marked by a falling birthrate, a low death rate, and a stabilizing and aging population whose major part is in the mature years from thirty to sixty.
As the population gets older because of the decrease in births and the increase in expectation of life, a larger and larger part of the population has passed the years of hearing children or bearing arms. This causes the birthrate to decline even more rapidly, and eventually gives a population so old that the death rate begins to rise again because of the great increase in deaths from old age or from the casualties of inevitable senility.
Accordingly, the society passes into a fourth stage of the demographic cycle (Population Type D). This stage is marked by a declining birthrate, a rising death rate, a decreasing population, and a population in which the major part is over fifty years of age.
It must be confessed that the nature of the fourth stage of this demographic cycle is based on theoretical considerations rather than on empirical observation, because even western Europe, where the cycle is most advanced, has not yet reached this fourth stage.
However, it seems quite likely that it will pass into such a stage by the year 2000, and already the increasing number of older persons has given rise to new problems and to a new science called geriatrics both in western Europe and in the eastern United States.
As we have said, Europe has already experienced the first three stages of this demographic cycle as a result of the Agricultural Revolution after 1725 and the Sanitation-Medical Revolution after 1775. As these two revolutions have diffused outward from western Europe to more peripheral areas of the world (the lifesaving revolution passing the food-producing revolution in the process), these more remote areas have entered, one by one, upon the demographic cycle.
This means that the demographic explosion (Population Type B) has moved outward from western Europe to Central Europe to eastern Europe and finally to Asia and Africa. By the middle of the twentieth century, India was fully in the grasp of the demographic explosion, with its population shooting upward at a rate of about 5 million a year, while Japan's population rose from 55 million in 1920 to 94 million in 1960.
A fine example of the working of this process can be seen in Ceylon where in 1920 the birthrate was 40 per thousand and the death rate was 32 per thousand, but in 1950 the birthrate was still at 40 while the death rate had fallen to 12. Before we examine the impact of this development on world history in the twentieth century let us look at two brief tables which will clarify this process.
The demographic cycle may be divided into four stages which we have designated by the first four letters of the alphabet. These four stages can be distinguished in respect to four traits: the birthrate, the death rate, the number of the population, and its age distribution. The nature of the four stages in these four respects can be seen in the following table:
The Demographic Cycle
Stage A B C D
Birthrate High High Falling Low
Death rate High Falling Low Rising
Numbers Stable Rising Stable Falling
Age Many young Many in prime Many Middle-aged Many old
Distribution (Below 18) (18-45) (Over 30) (Over 50)
The consequences of this demographic cycle (and the resulting demographic explosion) as it diffuses outward from western Europe to more peripheral areas of the world may be gathered from the following table which sets out the chronology of this movement in the four areas of western Europe, central Europe, eastern Europe, and Asia:
Diffusion of the Demographic Cycle
Areas
Western Central Eastern
Dates Europe Europe Europe Asia
1700 A A A A
1800 B A A A
_______
1850 B | B A A
|________________
1900 C B | B A
|________________
1950 C C B | B
|____________
2000 D D C B
In this table the line of greatest population pressure (the demographic explosion of Type B population) has been marked by a dotted line. This shows that there has been a sequence, at intervals of about fifty years, of four successive population pressures which might be designated with the following names:
Anglo-French pressure, about 1850
Germanic-Italian pressure, about 1900
Slavic pressure, about 1950
Asiatic pressure, about 2000
This diffusion of pressure outward from the western European core of Western Civilization can contribute a great deal toward a richer understanding of the period 1850-2000. It helps to explain the Anglo-French rivalry about 1850, the Anglo-French alliance based on fear of Germany after 1900, the free-world alliance based on fear of Soviet Russia after 1950, and the danger to both Western Civilization and Soviet Civilization from Asiatic pressure by 2000.
http://real-world-news.org/bk-quigley/01.html#2
Q: Why are some countries suspicious of China's rising power?
Vairon: I have two thoughts on this issue. The first is from a common foreigner's point of view. For common foreigners, they feel threatened because China has a large population.There are Chinese people everywhere overseas. We see Chinese people traveling and studying everywhere in the world. This visual picture creates a sense of “threat.” We can see Chinese people in Africa, Europe, all over, so it seems that this has created fear. This is the feeling of common foreigners. They feel nervous when they see Chinese people everywhere. This is a very popular view.
The second answer is linked to the first one. Because there are so many Chinese people, they cannot find jobs at home, and therefore they go abroad for opportunities. Foreigners feel the Chinese people who go overseas are taking their employment opportunities...http://english.people.com.cn/90001/
It helps to explain the Anglo-French rivalry about 1850, the Anglo-French alliance based on fear of Germany after 1900, the free-world alliance based on fear of Soviet Russia after 1950, and the danger to both Western Civilization and Soviet Civilization from Asiatic pressure by 2000.
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Demographics relate to population numbers, its size in determining the strength of the community to face challenges from other communities.
Such thinking are primitively tribal and persist in the thinking of politicians in this modern century when considering the modern day aspects of demographics that can and will play havoc with the economy, finance, politics, and military defense.
However, should demographic alone be the primary factor in determining the future of the Community ?
Should it not be the quality of the Community that determine their future ?
The standards set by small countries such as Switzerland and Israel, Ireland and Belgium - have shown that demographics have not been a critical criteria that affect their continued prosperity, security, and quality of life.
The strength of these small countries lie in the communal values that are embraced, institutionalized and practiced at all levels of society - amongst the citizens and also the political leadership.
There do not exist different sets of values and standards required from the Citizens and the Political Leadership.
Honesty, Transparency and Accountability are demanded and imposed equally on all.
The Political Leadership do not assume "Total License" in deciding for the Citizens.
All issues that affect the lives of the Citizens are put to open debate and everyone are required to participate and place their decisions in the regularly held referendums that are "honestly drafted to reflect choices".
What is the use of Demographics when a larger and growing population can be held to ransom by a Political Leadership that controls, manipulate, and thwarts the exercise or practice of political transparency, political honesty, political accountability, and the honest representation of diverse views ?
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sian, go back sleep again...ZZZZzzzZZZzzzzz....
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Originally posted by angel7030:
sian, go back sleep again...ZZZZzzzZZZzzzzz....
You should have been sleeping after closing your Bar early this morning - waiting for more late walk-in to fill a quiet Saturday night.
Was your Bar empty again, feeling depressed and need to check into this forum ?
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Originally posted by Atobe:
You should have been sleeping after closing your Bar early this morning - waiting for more late walk-in to fill a quiet Saturday night.
Was your Bar empty again, feeling depressed and need to check into this forum ?
yalor, miss you mah -
Actually, to tell all of you the truth, i never know much about politics, but by coming here, i do learn alots, tho some are just brainwashing posts, but i understand most did do some research and provide good opinons, so it save me alot of time, i really appreciate and take my bra off (no hat). Better than reading the state papers in the toilet whereby the carbon also dirty my hands.
And surprisingly, it helps when i am speaking to my Uncle customers, they also talk politics both locally and internationally, they were surprise at how knowledgeable I am, tho siao siao gong gong, but still got substance, not bimbo ok. Nevertheless, they are of course jealousy and hatre on such debates, peoples got egos, I understand, especially old unkers, when they seems to lost their words against me, they will say, "I eat salt more than you eat rice, u little gal, shut up!". Well...
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Originally posted by angel7030:
Actually, to tell all of you the truth, i never know much about politics, but by coming here, i do learn alots, tho some are just brainwashing posts, but i understand most did do some research and provide good opinons, so it save me alot of time, i really appreciate and take my bra off (no hat). Better than reading the state papers in the toilet whereby the carbon also dirty my hands.
And surprisingly, it helps when i am speaking to my Uncle customers, they also talk politics both locally and internationally, they were surprise at how knowledgeable I am, tho siao siao gong gong, but still got substance, not bimbo ok. Nevertheless, they are of course jealousy and hatre on such debates, peoples got egos, I understand, especially old unkers, when they seems to lost their words against me, they will say, "I eat salt more than you eat rice, u little gal, shut up!". Well...
Now the truth is out - it is obvious that you have created the troubles of an empty bar without any help from the effects of the economy.
If only your dad had taught you that "a fish with a big mouth will surely get hooked".
It will be better for your dad and Bar Business to have more bimbos than to have you.
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Originally posted by Atobe:
Now the truth is out - it is obvious that you have created the troubles of an empty bar without any help from the effects of the economy.
If only your dad had taught you that "a fish with a big mouth will surely get hooked".
It will be better for your dad and Bar Business to have more bimbos than to have you.
Well, we are trying, seems like during downtime, local Singaporeans prefer blondes more, must have upper their level of taste.Well, next week i will be travelling to eastern europe, hope to get some contract out of it.
Thank you for the advices, Change is inevitable, just a matter of time.