'Qantas wil be dead in 6 mon':Ctr for Asia-Pacific Aviation
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summary--1.share price drops 75 % fr peak,Qantas just down graded,
1H 2009 will be in red,
2.why did Qantas need to issue share in March 2009,when Qan hold in cash or cash equivalent amounting to A$3 billions?
3.The total of selected items of current and non-current cash/equivalent
is smaller than liability by A$ 5.5 billions!!.
4.Qantas needs to contribute A$66 m in next the 3 years to Employee Superannual,
like SG CPF!!
'Qantas will be dead in six months'
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sgstars gives us a new meaning a bias.
Bias mean correct info but bias mindset.ha ha.
i think any dictionary publisher shall recruit sgstars as editor.
Now go back to this thread.
Share price
The clue of pink of health of any company
is the share price.Qantas's share dropped 75 % from its peak in late 2007.
It just announced that ''operating profit between $100m and $200m''.
for its 2008/09 year (Jul 08 to jun 09).
''The carrier is effectively informing the market that it will make a substantial operating loss in the first six months of 2009 (2H09 for Qantas’ financial year), after having reported a net profit of AUD216 million in the first half of the financial year.''
http://www.centreforaviation.com/news/2009/04/14/qantas-announces-profit-downgrade-and-severe-cutbacks-while-airasia-expands-and-shares-rise/page1
So,wat do u think the share price will be heading?
Why Qantas is much lower than the oZ stock market?
http://markets.smh.com.au/apps/mkt/interactiveChart.ac?idx=XAO
Qantas code is QAN.
u can see Australia All Ord went back to April 2005 level,but Qantas
is currently 45 % below April 2005 level.
Qantas disputed down grading
Many Investors lose truths on these Rating agencies.
However,the rating is still very important.
''Qantas fell 5c to $1.95 after Standard & Poor's lowered its corporate credit ratings on the airline to 'BBB/A-3' from 'BBB+/A- 2'.''--link see above
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/fixedincome/Ratings_Definitons.pdf
Qantas disputes the down grading.
How far the Kangaroo can jump?
'Qantas will be dead in six months'
''QANTAS will no longer exist in its current form if the downturn that is crippling the industry lasts another six months, one of Australia's leading aviation experts has claimed.
Centre for Asia-Pacific Aviation director Peter Harbison said that a currently unprofitable Qantas faces being gutted and reconstructed around a more profitable Jetstar model.
He also told The Daily Telegraph yesterday that the 3300 jobs already axed at the airline would be easily superceded in the coming months if conditions did not improve.....'' -
This is not a Tom,Dick and Harry team.
Besides,this is not easy for a oz daily to quote this kind of bad prediction
on national carrier.
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Originally posted by lionnoisy:
summary--share price drops 75 % fr peak,Qantas just down graded,
1H 2009 will be in red,
'Qantas will be dead in six months'
@@@@@@@@@@@@
sgstars gives us a new meaning a bias.
Bias mean correct info but bias mindset.ha ha.
i think any dictionary publisher shall recruit sgstars as editor.
Now go back to this thread.
Share price
The clue of pink of health of any company
is the share price.Qantas's share dropped 75 % from its peak in late 2007.
It just announced that ''operating profit between $100m and $200m''.
for its 2008/09 year (Jul 08 to jun 09).
''The carrier is effectively informing the market that it will make a substantial operating loss in the first six months of 2009 (2H09 for Qantas’ financial year), after having reported a net profit of AUD216 million in the first half of the financial year.''
http://www.centreforaviation.com/news/2009/04/14/qantas-announces-profit-downgrade-and-severe-cutbacks-while-airasia-expands-and-shares-rise/page1
So,wat do u think the share price will be heading?
Why Qantas is much lower than the oZ stock market?
http://markets.smh.com.au/apps/mkt/interactiveChart.ac?idx=XAO
Qantas disputed down grading
Many Investors lose truths on these Rating agencies.
However,the rating is still very important.
''Qantas fell 5c to $1.95 after Standard & Poor's lowered its corporate credit ratings on the airline to 'BBB/A-3' from 'BBB+/A- 2'.''--link see above
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/fixedincome/Ratings_Definitons.pdf
Qantas disputes the down grading.
How far the Kangaroo can jump?
'Qantas will be dead in six months'
''QANTAS will no longer exist in its current form if the downturn that is crippling the industry lasts another six months, one of Australia's leading aviation experts has claimed.
Centre for Asia-Pacific Aviation director Peter Harbison said that a currently unprofitable Qantas faces being gutted and reconstructed around a more profitable Jetstar model.
He also told The Daily Telegraph yesterday that the 3300 jobs already axed at the airline would be easily superceded in the coming months if conditions did not improve.....''Should be moved to the Global Civil Aviation Forum.
Reason for big loss is becoz there is a huge sudden drop in demand for First and Biz class pax(the main revenue source for perhaps any non-LCC airline) these days. SQ is also not spared. Drop of something like 21% of loads, mostly from the seats up front. Cargo is also less. Look at the world markets and you will find a strong relation to the growth of their national carriers(assuming they are not grossly mismanaged).
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When SIA wanted to buy them long ago, they dun wan, now this Proud kangeroo find it own end. Dun worry, before they go down, sure they will lower their price, someone will still buy from them, these Ozies like to fly alot too. But after buying, the kangeroo may no more be the icon of the carriers, i bet a Darwin Crocs will take over, decendent of crocodile dundee. Yeah!!
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Originally posted by angel7030:
When SIA wanted to buy them long ago, they dun wan, now this Proud kangeroo find it own end. Dun worry, before they go down, sure they will lower their price, someone will still buy from them, these Ozies like to fly alot too. But after buying, the kangeroo may no more be the icon of the carriers, i bet a Darwin Crocs will take over, decendent of crocodile dundee. Yeah!!
Wrong. SIA bought over ANZ(Air New Zealand). Failed investment so to speak. ANZ itself acquired Ansett Australia(now Bankrupt). ANZ is "smaller" than Ansett and couldn't control its subsidiary. Ansett made massive losses and ANZ was forced to spin off Ansett. At no point in time was SIA wanting to buy that stupid Australian kangaroo. SIA had wanted to make inroads into the Australian market in the early 90s, and wanted to use Ansett. By the mid 90s when the catastrophic collapse of Ansett was imminent, SIA decided to pull out of all investment in Australia(and now ANZ too).
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Quantas can die but Australia will continue to thrive.... they own a whole continent, remember?
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Originally posted by AndrewPKYap:
Quantas can die but Australia will continue to thrive.... they own a whole continent, remember?
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Originally posted by Fryderyk HPH:
Should be moved to the Global Civil Aviation Forum.
Reason for big loss is becoz there is a huge sudden drop in demand for First and Biz class pax(the main revenue source for perhaps any non-LCC airline) these days. SQ is also not spared. Drop of something like 21% of loads, mostly from the seats up front. Cargo is also less. Look at the world markets and you will find a strong relation to the growth of their national carriers(assuming they are not grossly mismanaged).
There is great interest in oz,including the fate of the national carrier.
Many have said there are many SG migrants alreday in oz and there are much
more going to migrate to Down Under.I am doing a good deed here
to give them some hints what are reality in Oz.
Why profitables but share prices keep on dropping?
http://www.qantas.com.au/info/about/investors/fullYearResults2007
For the years ending June 07 and June 08,profits after tax were
A$720 m and 970 m respectively.Dividend were 30 cents and 17 cents.
so ,wat will happen when the year ending June 2009 facing
''operating profit between $100m and $200m''?
Qantas needs some extra ordinary transaction to window shopping the books.
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Originally posted by Fryderyk HPH:
Wrong. SIA bought over ANZ(Air New Zealand). Failed investment so to speak. ANZ itself acquired Ansett Australia(now Bankrupt). ANZ is "smaller" than Ansett and couldn't control its subsidiary. Ansett made massive losses and ANZ was forced to spin off Ansett. At no point in time was SIA wanting to buy that stupid Australian kangaroo. SIA had wanted to make inroads into the Australian market in the early 90s, and wanted to use Ansett. By the mid 90s when the catastrophic collapse of Ansett was imminent, SIA decided to pull out of all investment in Australia(and now ANZ too).
oh, me wrong again, Aiya, sometime like this lah, i remember once there was talk of selling Qantas, but because of OZies protectism policies and pressure from it Kangaroo babies, it was not agreed upon. Now how>. at least i started the ball rolling rite? Not kangeroos fly the wannabe Wobats lah. OZies are like their Koala Bear, alway lazy and sleep alots...me go sleep liao,,cuddle my koala bear bear... -
Profits before tax (PBT) drops from 1032 m ,1408 m to 100 to 200m
In the 2 previous years end June 07 and 08,PBT were 1032m and 1408 m respectively.
For year ending june 09,PBT has just been revised down fr 500 m to
100 to 200 m!!
http://www.qantas.com.au/info/about/investors/fullYearResults2008
http://www.qantas.com.au/regions/dyn/au/publicaffairs/details?ArticleID=2009/apr09/3911
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peak at late 2007 was about $5.6.
Qantas share price
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?symb=QUBSF&time=12&freq=1&comp=&compidx=aaaaa~0&compind=&uf=0&ma=&maval=&lf=1&lf2=&lf3=&type=2&size=1&txtstyle=&style=&submitted=true&intflavor=basic&origurl=%2Ftools%2Fquotes%2Fintchart.asp
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Originally posted by lionnoisy:
There is great interest in oz,including the fate of the national carrier.
Many have said there are many SG migrants alreday in oz and there are much
more going to migrate to Down Under.I am doing a good deed here
to give them some hints what are reality in Oz.
Why profitables but share prices keep on dropping?
http://www.qantas.com.au/info/about/investors/fullYearResults2007
For the years ending June 07 and June 08,profits after tax were
A$720 m and 970 m respectively.Dividend were 30 cents and 17 cents.
so ,wat will happen when the year ending June 2009 facing
''operating profit between $100m and $200m''?
Qantas needs some extra ordinary transaction to window shopping the books.
Dun worry, the Ozies will bail them out, afterall the Ozies cannot loose face, Qantas was once the most famous Airlines in Asia, but now a limping kangeroo. Sure to get Bail out from Aust treasury, which is also OZies and all those immigrant tax money -
one more down grade become junk bond
good news is Qantas has A$ 3 billion cash or cash equivalent in hand!!
I am wandering why did Qan issue 28 millin shares at 2.5 % discount in March,
reda below.
when Qan was very cash rich.Do this item containing any non--pure
assets aka toxic assets.sorry to say this.Nowadays,cash equivalent can
include anythings under the sun--from shares,to CDO and somethings
i also dunt know.ha ha....
Qantas disputes ratings downgrade by Standard & Poor's
''Qantas would need to fall one more level from BBB before hitting junk status. Ms Zhong did not rule out taking Qantas down another notch in future. "A further rating downgrade could occur if the industry downturn deepens," she said.
But she also pointed to the airline's "good liquidity and financial flexibility, which mitigate to a certain extent the airline's expected weaker credit metrics".
She noted S&P's negative rating outlook reflected "the tough trading conditions facing the airline industry globally, including uncertainty surrounding the depth and duration of the current recession". S&P was concerned about "a weak outlook for premium-segment revenue", from areas such as business class travel.
But Ian Lewis, a Moody's senior analyst, maintained a stable outlook, saying Qantas's financial profile "should remain manageable within the rating at this stage of the economic cycle, unless global and domestic conditions deteriorate more sharply ... than currently anticipated".''
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i dunt understand the ''Funds From operations'' to ''Adjusted Debt (net of surplus cash)''
falls below 25 % in the 3 rd paragraph here
PDF.
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=QAN#headlines
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http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/announcements.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=QAN&timeframe=Y&year=2008
15/04/2009 
Credit Rating Agency Press Releases 4 PDF -
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http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=QAN#headlines
Qantas just issued new shares of 28 million at A$1.56 per share and at 2.5% discount!!
compared with the currrent 2.2 billions shares.it is peanut.
why did Qantas need to issue share,when Qan hold in cash or cash equivalent amounting to A$3 billions?
Does Qan need cash urgently?
24/03/2009 Appendix 3B 7 PDF -
Originally posted by AndrewPKYap:
Quantas can die but Australia will continue to thrive.... they own a whole continent, remember?
do u know rice production in oz drops from 1 million tons to 21,000 tons!!
dunt judge a book by its cover!!
''All the while, the lifelong farmer watched as national production of rice dropped from more than a million tons a year to 21,000, contributing to the food shortage being felt across the globe.''
http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2009/04/murray-darling/draper-text/11
http://ngm.typepad.com/blog_central/2009/03/australian-drought-takes-its-toll.html
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Originally posted by angel7030:
Dun worry, the Ozies will bail them out, afterall the Ozies cannot loose face, Qantas was once the most famous Airlines in Asia, but now a limping kangeroo. Sure to get Bail out from Aust treasury, which is also OZies and all those immigrant tax moneyoz Debt Issurance boss just performed road show in middle east to sell IOU,
aka Treasury Bond.Where do they get the cash to bail out Flying Kangaroo?
http://www.aofm.gov.au/content/publications/speeches.asp
Presentation: Australian Government Investor Briefing - CEO Presentation at HSBC
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17 - 20 March 2009 - Australian Government Investor Briefing – CEO Presentation at HSBC Issuer and Investor Summit, Dubai.
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The total of selected items of current and non-current cash/equivalent
is smaller than liability by A$ 5.5 billions!!.
Financial year end....................June 2008...Jun 2007
Assets--selected items
Cash and cash equivalents ......2,599.0 m....3 ,362.9m
Receivables .............................1,434.9 m....1 ,376.8mReceivables,................................... 531.8m.... 372.7m
------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL----------------------------------4,567 m......5,112 m
Liabilities--selected items
Payables ..............................2,173.9 million... .2 ,005.7 million
Revenue received in advance 3,267.2 m .....3 ,049.3 mNon-current liabilities
Revenue received in advance ....1,082.6m............ 1 ,049.7m
Interest-bearing liabilities ............3,572.8m......... 4 ,210.9m__________________________________________________--
TOTAL .........................................10,096m............10,315.6
Differences......................................5529 m..............5203 m
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sources--
http://www.qantas.com.au/infodetail/about/investors/preliminaryFinalReport08.pdf
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The Down Under War of the Airlines continues. Virgin Australia and Delta Airlines have announced an interline partnership that will enable travelers to "travel on a single ticket on the two airlines between Australia and the US." What we think this means (and correct us if we're wrong) is that you can fly Virgin from Oz to Los Angeles and then hop on a Delta flight from LA to anywhere else in the US. You get one ticket and your luggage is checked all the way through to your final destination.
The Down Under War has well and truly started. We're talking the war on flights from the United States down to Australia, a market that's got boiling hot since V Australia threw its hat in the ring. And Delta is just a few months away from starting their own cheap flights to Sydney.
Likely-to-lose airline Qantas, which has happily served these routes at regular prices for decades, has really thrown down the gauntlet this week.
They're now offering $299 one-way flights between Los Angeles and various Australian and New Zealand destinations, and with taxes that means you can get a return flight for as low as $676 with nearly all departure dates through to October 24 eligible for the special--if you book by March 20.
For these prices, we'd be going back to Qantas--after all. Actually, VAustralia not only offers free in-flight entertainment, but during the inaugural, movies were free. Yup, we watched Slumdog Millionaire for free. Furthermore, VA is offering a bunch of Australian wines. So who will win us over in the end? We'd be tempted by anyone offering sub-$500 round-trips from the US to Oz.
Qantas is not only getting the heat from an international point of view, but even local domestic competition is going to kill them if they still dunno who moved their cheese? Well, goodbye Qantas.
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http://www.qantas.com.au/regions/dyn/au/publicaffairs/details?ArticleID=2009/apr09/3908
Qantas needs to contribute A$66 m in the 3 next years to Employee Superannual,
like SG CPF!!
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http://www.qantas.com.au/info/about/investors/dividendHistory
investors info